Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2007

Lake Effect Snow Warning 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

January 23, 2007Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Jan 23, 2007, 4:45 AM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It took effect at Jan 23, 2007, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for 18 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 23, 2007, 4:45 AM EST (09:45 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 23, 2007, 4:00 PM EST
Expired
Jan 24, 2007, 10:00 AM EST
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2007-01-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2007-01-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 41 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
499 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
76 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
92 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 230945
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

NYZ007-008-231745-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0004.070123T2300Z-070124T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0003.070123T2100Z-070124T1800Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
445 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

A COLD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL GENERATE SOME
DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AS
THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...STEADIER LAKE SNOWS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT AND WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OF WATERTOWN TO BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES AN HOUR PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL AN
ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 10
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUG HILL. THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BIT OF THUNDER AND LIGHTNING.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTH OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ006-231745-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0004.070123T2300Z-070124T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0003.070124T0600Z-070125T1200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
445 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
COUNTY TODAY...THEN DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...A BAND OF
STEADIER LAKE SNOW WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THE SNOW LATER TONIGHT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES AN HOUR PRODUCING 4 TO 8
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE TUG HILL. A BIT OF THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

THE LAKE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE COUNTY
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LAKE SNOWS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER 4 TO 8 INCHES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ010-231745-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.070123T1800Z-070124T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
445 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

DISORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY WILL
DRIFT NORTH AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A WELL
DEVELOPED BAND OF LAKE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 3 TO 4
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE BAND SHIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTH.

SINCE THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING AND JUST PRIOR TO THE
LATE AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR...COMMUTERS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ019-020-085-231745-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0005.070123T2300Z-070125T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
445 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. 

WHILE COLD AIR CROSSING LAKE ERIE WILL PRODUCE SOME DISORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY...STEADIER AND HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE
HEAR THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ004-005-231745-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0005.070124T1200Z-070126T0000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
445 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. 

A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY
WILL PRESENT THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

RSH
6 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS41 KBUF 231505
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1005 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

NYZ007-008-232315-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.070123T2100Z-070124T1800Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1005 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. 

A COLD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL GENERATE SOME
DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AS
THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...STEADIER LAKE SNOWS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON... MAINLY OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT AND WILL
DRIFT SOUTH OF WATERTOWN TO BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES AN HOUR PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL AN
ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS
10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUG HILL. THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BIT OF THUNDER AND LIGHTNING.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTH OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO
20 INCHES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ006-232315-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.070124T0600Z-070125T1200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
1005 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY. 

DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
COUNTY TODAY...THEN DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...A BAND OF
STEADIER LAKE SNOW WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THE SNOW LATER TONIGHT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES AN HOUR PRODUCING 4 TO
8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE TUG HILL. A BIT OF THUNDER
AND LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

THE LAKE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LAKE SNOWS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER 4 TO 8 INCHES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ085-232315-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0005.070123T2300Z-070125T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.070123T1505Z-070125T1200Z/
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1005 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES. MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
EXPECTED OFF AND ON FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ019-020-232315-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0005.070123T2300Z-070125T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.070123T2300Z-070125T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
1005 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON RIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
3 TO 5 INCH RANGE WITH ADDITIONAL SIMILAR AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND
OVER THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ011-232315-
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.070123T1505Z-070124T0000Z/
GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BATAVIA
1005 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE COUNTY THIS EVENING.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ012-232315-
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.070123T1505Z-070124T1100Z/
WYOMING-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WARSAW
1005 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ010-232315-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.070123T1505Z-070124T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
1005 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES. THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS STEERING
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED.

SINCE THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING AND JUST PRIOR TO THE
LATE AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR...COMMUTERS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ004-005-232315-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.070124T1200Z-070126T0000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
1005 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY
WILL PRESENT THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

SAGE
000 
WWUS41 KBUF 232000
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
300 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

NYZ006-240400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.W.0003.070124T0000Z-070125T1200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
300 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY. 

DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
COUNTY THIS EVENING...THEN DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT A BAND OF
STEADIER LAKE SNOW WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THE SNOW LATER TONIGHT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES AN HOUR PRODUCING 6 TO 12
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE TUG HILL...AND THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

THE LAKE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LAKE SNOWS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER 4 TO 8 INCHES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ007-008-240400-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.070123T2100Z-070124T1800Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
300 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

A COLD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL GENERATE SOME
DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN AS
THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...STEADIER LAKE SNOWS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES. SNOWFALL TOTALS BY MIDNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS WATERTOWN AND FORT DRUM..AND AREAS NORTHWARD TO THE
THOUSAND ISLANDS.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT AND WILL
DRIFT SOUTH OF WATERTOWN TO BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES AN HOUR PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL AN
ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 10 TO
12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUG HILL. THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND LIGHTNING.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTH OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO
20 INCHES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ010-011-240000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070124T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
300 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES. BRISK
WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES. THE BULK OF
THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS STEERING WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SINCE THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING AND JUST PRIOR TO THE
EVENING RUSH HOUR...COMMUTERS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AS DRIVING
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ085-240400-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070125T1200Z/
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
300 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES. MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON A NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS
WILL KEEP THE MOST OF THE LINGERING ACCUMULATION OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ012-240400-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070124T1100Z/
WYOMING-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WARSAW
300 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. BRISK WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ019-020-240400-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.070123T2300Z-070125T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
300 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY. 

THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS STEERING WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON RIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE WITH ADDITIONAL SIMILAR AMOUNTS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY BE FOUND OVER THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ004-005-240400-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.070124T1200Z-070126T0000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
300 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY
WILL PRESENT THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$
000 
WWUS41 KBUF 232212
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
512 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

NYZ010-011-232315-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070124T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
512 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

THE HEAVIER SNOWBAND HAS MOVED SOUTH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ007-008-240615-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070124T1800Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
512 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

A COLD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL GENERATE SOME
DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN AS THE
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...STEADIER LAKE SNOWS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES. SNOWFALL TOTALS BY MIDNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO
5 INCHES ACROSS WATERTOWN AND FORT DRUM..AND AREAS NORTHWARD TO
THE THOUSAND ISLANDS.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT AND WILL
DRIFT SOUTH OF WATERTOWN TO BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES AN HOUR PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL AN
ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS
10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUG HILL. THE HEAVIER
SNOW MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND LIGHTNING.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTH OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO
20 INCHES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ006-240615-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.070124T0000Z-070125T1200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
512 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
COUNTY THIS EVENING...THEN DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT A BAND OF
STEADIER LAKE SNOW WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THE SNOW LATER TONIGHT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES AN HOUR PRODUCING 6 TO
12 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE TUG HILL...AND THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

THE LAKE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LAKE SNOWS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER 4 TO 8 INCHES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ085-240615-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070125T1200Z/
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
512 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BRISK WINDS WILL
PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES. MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON A NORTHWEST FLOW.
THIS WILL KEEP THE MOST OF THE LINGERING ACCUMULATION OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ012-240615-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070124T1100Z/
WYOMING-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WARSAW
512 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. BRISK
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ019-020-240615-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.070123T2300Z-070125T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
512 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS STEERING WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON RIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE WITH ADDITIONAL SIMILAR AMOUNTS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY BE FOUND OVER THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ004-005-240615-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.070124T1200Z-070126T0000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
512 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY
WILL PRESENT THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$
000 
WWUS41 KBUF 240247
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

NYZ007-008-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070124T1800Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
947 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

A COLD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE SNOWS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ACTIVITY
WILL FOCUS ON SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE A FOOT OR MORE CAN PILE UP BY MORNING. THE
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEAKEN
AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND LIGHTNING.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ006-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070125T1200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
947 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE SNOW OVER THE TUG HILL AND FAR NORTHERN PART
OF THE COUNTY WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE SNOW LATER TONIGHT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES AN HOUR PRODUCING 6 TO 12
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE TUG HILL...AND THUNDER AND
LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL.

THE LAKE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LAKE SNOWS CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER 4 TO 8 INCHES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ085-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070125T1200Z/
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
947 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT....WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF COLDEN AND BOSTON. BRISK
WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES. MORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE MOST OF THE LINGERING
ACCUMULATION OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ012-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070124T1100Z/
WYOMING-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WARSAW
947 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL
ACCUMULATE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY. BRISK WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING
SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ019-020-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070125T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
947 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT CAN BE
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MORE SNOWS WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY BUT THEY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND OF VARYING
INTENSITIES. AGAIN...THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND OVER THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ004-005-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.070124T1200Z-070126T0000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
947 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY
WILL PRESENT THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$
000 
WWUS41 KBUF 240925
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
425 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

NYZ007-008-241030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070124T1800Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
425 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

WESTERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED THE STEADY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...THUS ENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. 

LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH COULD STILL ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS BEFORE MID MORNING.

$$

NYZ019-020-085-241030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070125T1200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
425 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

WHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LIKELY TODAY
WITH NUISANCE ACCUMULATIONS...UNFAVORABLY CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS FROM CONTINUING.

$$

NYZ012-241030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070124T1100Z/
WYOMING-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WARSAW
425 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

WHILE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE
ENDED. 

$$

NYZ004-005-241030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.A.0005.070124T1200Z-070126T0000Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN
425 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH. 

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ006-241500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070124T1500Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
425 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THIS MORNING. 

A PLUME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE HEART
OF OSWEGO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
LESS FAVORABLE WINDS. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
MULTI BAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES...MOST OF
WHICH WILL FALL BEFORE 10 AM. 

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

RSH
000 
WWUS41 KBUF 241503
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1003 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

NYZ006-241615-
/O.EXP.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070124T1500Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
1003 AM EST WED JAN 24 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THEREFORE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME. SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
LIKELY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT ONLY AN INCH OR SO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

$$

SAGE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Jan 23, 4:30 AM EST, 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 23, 4:30 AM EST, 15 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD MARINE AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
430 AM EST TUE JAN 23 2007

.SYNOPSIS...

LOTS OF FLAGS OUT TODAY

THE BENIGN WEATHER OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO
A VERY ACTIVE MODE AS LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON...
WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS EXPECTED IN THE LEE OF BOTH LAKES
LATER TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A LAKE SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY FOR A
BAND THAT WILL LIFT INTO THE METRO AREA LATER TODAY...WHILE LAKE
SNOW WARNINGS WILL BE HOISTED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE COMPLETE BREAK DOWN ON THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN
BE FOUND WITHIN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION AND ALSO IN THE WATCH/
WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION AT THE BOTTOM.

THE FREQUENT LAKE SNOWS WILL BE COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT LONG WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.
A STRONG -NAO IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC COUPLED WITH A +PNA PATTERN
OVER THE NORTH AMERICA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS COLD SPELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MARGINALLY COLD AIR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE SOME
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WHILE LAKE DELTA TS WILL ONLY BE IN THE RANGE OF 12-14 TO START
TODAY...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER BOTH LAKES WILL HELP IN
PRODUCING A LARGER AND MORE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL
GROWTH AREA. LETS GET RIGH TO THE DETAILS....

OFF LK ERIE...
WEAK DISORGANIZED MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT ARE ALREADY
VISIBLE OVER CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. AS THE BOUDNARY LAYER FLOW BACKS
FROM 290 TO 270 THIS MORNING...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND WILL START TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. BY MIDDAY...
THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO ABOUT 250. THIS WILL ALLOW A
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED BAND TO TAKE SHAPE AND LIFT TOWARDS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA.

THE DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA IS NOT EXPECTD TO BE VERY DEEP AT
MIDDAY...BUT SHOULD DEEPEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BAND IS
FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTEHRN ERIE COUNTY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE...WITH A LARGE PORTION
OF THIS COMING JUST PRIOR TO AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVE
COMMUTE. AS A RESULT...A LAKE SNOW ADVISORY FOR RNN ERIE COUNTY
WILL BE ISSUED.

THE LAKE SNOW WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER
TO 270 BY LATE EVENING...THEN TO 290 OVERNIGHT. WHILE GUIDANCE IS
NOT IMPRESSED WITH QPF SOUTH OF BUFFALO TONIGHT...FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED WINDS AND A DEEP MOISTURE FIELD SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FOR THE SNOW BELTS SOUTH OF BUFFALO. A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR NOW FOR CHAUTAUQUA...
CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE DAYSHIFT WILL RE-EXAMINE AND WILL LIKELY ISSUE ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS LATER TODAY.

THE LAKE SNOWS OFF LK ERIE WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN TWO
PIECES...WITH THE INITIAL FRONT COMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN THE REAL PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW A SECONDARY
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OFF LK ONTARIO...
A WESTERLY FLOW OF MARGINALLY COLD AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING...THEN LIKE LK ERIE...THE
FLOW WILL BACK TO ABOUT 250 BY MIDDAY. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTY WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE
FIELD AND LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT LIKELY PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT
LAKE SNOWS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BOTH COUNTIES FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE
UPGRADED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES TO A WARNING THAT WILL BEGIN AT 21Z.

TONIGHT THE FLOW WILL VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND SEND A
STEADY STATE PLUME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOW ACROSS THE TUG
HILL REGION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS REGION TONIGHT...WITH A LAKE SNOW WARNING FOR OSWEGO
COUNTY GOING INTO EFFECT AT 06Z. SINCE THE LAKE SFC IS STILL NEAR
40 DEGREES...SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REST OF OSWEGO COUNTY. THE STEADY SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW WILL
VEER TO ABOUT 290 IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE
THE COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN WITH GREATER INSTABILITY FOUND OVER THE
LAKE...DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS MAY MIX DOWN ENOUGH TO CUT DOWN ON
THE AMOUNT OF LAKE SNOW.

NEVERTHELESS...OSWEGO COUNTY WILL BE TARGETED IN THE MORNING...
WITH THE FLOW POSSIBLY VEERING TO ABOUT 300 DEG IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD THEN SEND MULTIPLE BANDS ACROSS AN AREA FROM OSWEGO
COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY...PROMPTING A LES WATCH FOR NRN CAYUGA AND
WAYNE COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

OUTSIDE THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS
FOR MOST SITES IN THE TEENS. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL
ASSURE THE CONTINUATION OF A NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR OVER OUR
REGION INTO FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT IMPLICATIONS.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A BRIEF DISRUPTION IN THE ARCTIC
AIR FLOW AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING A SYNOPTIC SNOW TO
OUR REGION.

ARCTIC AIR WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
A POLAR VORTEX BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WE ARE
LOOKING AT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
MORE LAKE EFFECT PROBLEMS LIKELY. THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT PHASED
-NAO/+PNA WILL BE IN FIRM CONTROL. THE PHASED PATTERN HAS A HIGH
CORRELATION TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO THE MVFR RANGE IN LIGHT SNOW AND FOG
THIS MORNING WITH SOME LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING NE OF LAKE ERIE
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE BAND OFF LAKE
ERIE DRIFTING SOUTH OF BUFFALO BY AROUND 00Z. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL
DROP TO AT LEAST IFR FOR A TIME IN THE BAND AS IT MOVES THROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF NIAGARA
FALLS. THE BAND WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTH REACHING THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATER THIS EVENING WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME IFR TO LIFR IN THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. AT WATERTOWN CONDITIONS SHLD START OUT VFR
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW BY AROUND 16Z LOWERING CONDITIONS TO THE MVFR
RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL PROBABLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR OR LOWER AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO OSWEGO COUNTY LATER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
LOWER CONDITIONS AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

ISSUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH VARIOUS STARTING TIMES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. THESE ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ONLY
THROUGH 17Z FOR LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DECREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LAKES SNOWS WILL
DEVELOP AS WELL AT THE EAST ENDS OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ004-005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 12 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM
         EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...JJP
MARINE...JJP
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 22, 1:20 PM EST, 15 hours 25 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
120 PM EST MON JAN 22 2007

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-231430-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
120 PM EST MON JAN 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AGAIN IT
APPEARS THAT THE STEERING WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL GIVE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THE BEST CHANCE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-231430-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
120 PM EST MON JAN 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING AS FAR NORTH AS
WATERTOWN LATE TUESDAY THEN DRIFTING SOUTHWARD LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AGAIN IT
APPEARS THAT THE STEERING WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL GIVE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THE BEST CHANCE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-061-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-231430-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
120 PM EST MON JAN 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SAGE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 23, 4:45 AM ESTLake Effect Snow WatchBUFCattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Wayne24 hr
Jan 23, 4:45 AM ESTLake Effect Snow AdvisoryBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming24 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2007Every lake effect snow warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.