Lake Effect Snow Warning 14, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 290402
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1102 PM EST WED NOV 28 2007

...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY MORNING. A
WESTERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS
COLD FRONT AND BRING SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO THE EAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

NYZ006>008-291215-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0014.071129T1500Z-071130T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1102 PM EST WED NOV 28 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY
TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY
TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS
FOCUSING ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION.

SNOW COULD AT FALL AT A RATE OF OVER AN INCH PER HOUR IN THE
HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE FOOT IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-291215-
/O.CON.KBUF.LB.Y.0004.071129T1200Z-071130T1100Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1102 PM EST WED NOV 28 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SKI COUNTRY AND THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY OCCASIONALLY
REACH INTO THE MORE DISTANT SOUTHERN SUBURBS AS WELL.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGES FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES WHICH WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
SNOW...SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 290947
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
447 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007

...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE LATER TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY... 

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. THE COLD AIR WILL COMBINE WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY WINDS LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY TO PRODUCE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

NYZ006>008-291800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0014.071129T1500Z-071130T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
447 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY. 

DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU TO NEAR WATERTOWN. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL
BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A SINGLE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND
WILL SETTLE SOUTH TO THE TUG HILL EARLY TONIGHT.

THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU TONIGHT...WHERE SNOWFALL
RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR WILL POSSIBLE. A BIT OF THUNDER
AND LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW.

THE WELL DEFINED BAND OF LAKE SNOW WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS THE ACTIVITY APPROACHES WATERTOWN DURING THE MIDDAY.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN PULASKI AND ADAMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE POOR TO TREACHEROUS TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BY FRIDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE FOOT OVER
THE TUG HILL.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-291800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LB.Y.0004.071129T1200Z-071130T1100Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
447 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY LAKE ERIE NEAR SHORE TO THE SOUTH TOWNS OF HAMBURG
AND EAST AURORA. THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT MAY INCLUDE A LITTLE RAIN
CLOSE TO THE LAKE...WHILE THE SKI COUNTRY OF SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES DURING THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT...THE BAND OF LAKE SNOW
WILL SETTLE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE
DISORGANIZED. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING. 

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGES FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES WHICH WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
SNOW...SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

RSH

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 291646
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1146 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007

...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. THE COLD AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY TO PRODUCE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

NYZ006>008-300100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0014.000000T0000Z-071130T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1146 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
FRIDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
FRIDAY. 

RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS 
AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION.

DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE 
AFTERNOON FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU TO NEAR WATERTOWN. THE LAKE
SNOWS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A SINGLE BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WILL SETTLE SOUTH TO THE TUG HILL EARLY TONIGHT.

THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU TONIGHT...WHERE SNOWFALL
RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR WILL POSSIBLE. A BIT OF
THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITHIN THE
HEAVIER SNOW.

THE WELL DEFINED BAND OF LAKE SNOW WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS THE ACTIVITY APPROACHES WATERTOWN DURING THE MIDDAY.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN PULASKI AND ADAMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE POOR TO TREACHEROUS TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BY FRIDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY EXCEED ONE FOOT OVER
THE TUG HILL.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-300100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LB.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-071130T1100Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1146 AM EST THU NOV 29 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE TO THE SOUTHTOWNS OF
HAMBURG AND EAST AURORA. THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT MAY INCLUDE A
LITTLE RAIN CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE...WHILE THE SKI COUNTRY OF
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT...THE BAND OF LAKE SNOW
WILL SETTLE A LITTLE FATHER TO THE SOUTH. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL
THEN TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL GUST TO
OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES WHICH WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
SNOW...SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

TMA

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 292035
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 PM EST THU NOV 29 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH 
FRIDAY...

MUCH COLDER AIR SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY TO THE EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

NYZ006>008-300445-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0014.000000T0000Z-071130T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
335 PM EST THU NOV 29 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
FRIDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
FRIDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU TO NEAR
WATERTOWN BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL BECOME
ORGANIZED INTO A SINGLE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND WILL
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU EARLY TONIGHT.

THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU TONIGHT...WHERE SNOWFALL
RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BIT OF
THUNDER AND LIGHTNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITHIN THE 
HEAVIER SNOW.

THE WELL DEFINED BAND OF LAKE SNOW WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. SNOWFALL RATES 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE ACTIVITY APPROACHES WATERTOWN
DURING THE MIDDAY.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN PARISH AND ADAMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE POOR TO TREACHEROUS TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BY FRIDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY REACH ONE FOOT OVER
THE TUG HILL.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-300445-
/O.CON.KBUF.LB.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-071130T1100Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
335 PM EST THU NOV 29 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE
FROM PERRYSBURG DOWN TO SHERMAN WHERE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 30 MPH WILL
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW...SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

TMA

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 300303
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1003 PM EST THU NOV 29 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...

MUCH COLDER AIR SWEEPING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

NYZ012-019-020-085-300415-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LB.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-071130T1100Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1003 PM EST THU NOV 29 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED...AND WHILE ANOTHER INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ006>008-301115-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0014.000000T0000Z-071130T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1003 PM EST THU NOV 29 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
FRIDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
FRIDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

THE WELL DEFINED BAND OF LAKE SNOW WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. SNOWFALL RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE ACTIVITY APPROACHES WATERTOWN
DURING THE MIDDAY.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN PARISH AND ADAMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE POOR TO TREACHEROUS TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BY FRIDAY EVENING COULD REACH ONE FOOT OVER
THE TUG HILL.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 300946
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
446 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...

COLD AIR SWEEPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

NYZ006>008-301800-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.071202T1200Z-071203T1000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0014.000000T0000Z-071130T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
446 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ALSO ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WIDE AND SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER OSWEGO
COUNTY AT DAYBREAK WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
TUG HILL DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LAKE SNOWS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY LIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT NOT BEFORE
DEPOSITING ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY THIS EVENING COULD REACH ONE FOOT
OVER THE TUG HILL.

THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION COULD THEN BE AFFECTED BY A LARGER
MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHEN A STORM LIFTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD STEADY SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF NEW YORK STATE. THIS SNOW COULD MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT TIMES
OVER OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-301800-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.071202T0000Z-071203T1000Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
446 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. 

THE FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM OF THE YOUNG SEASON COULD AFFECT THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A WELL DEVELOPED STORM OVER THE PLAINS STATES
ON SATURDAY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

THE STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...THEN MILDER AIR COULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO
A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY RAIN FOR A TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE FOR
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

NYZ003-004-013-014-301800-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.071202T0600Z-071203T1000Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA
446 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. 

THE STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...THEN MILDER AIR COULD CHANGE
THE SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY RAIN FOR A
TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL THEN
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM WILL MOVE EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE FOR
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND..

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

NYZ005-301800-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.071202T1200Z-071203T1000Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FAIR HAVEN
446 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. 

THE STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...
THEN MILDER AIR COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE THE SNOW TO A MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY RAIN FOR A TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE FOR
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

RSH

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 301457
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
957 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE WEAKENED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SO THE LAKE 
EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED...

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO SPREAD A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION 
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREADING EAST 
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... 

.LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE WEAKENED SO THE LAKE 
EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED. ONLY AN INCH OR LESS OF 
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS 
JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS 
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH A GENERAL 
SNOW MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE SATURDAY EVENING...THE 
FINGER LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND AREAS EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES LATE 
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW IS THEN 
EXPECTED TO CHANGE THE SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 
THEN CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF LAKE 
ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW..SLEET 
OR ICE DURING THIS PERIOD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.


NYZ006>008-302300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0014.000000T0000Z-071130T2300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.071202T1200Z-071203T1000Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
957 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE WEAKENED SO THE LAKE 
EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED. ONLY AN INCH OR LESS OF 
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS 
JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES.

THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHOULD THEN BE AFFECTED BY A
LARGER MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHEN A STORM
LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD STEADY SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE. THIS SNOW COULD MIX WITH SOME SLEET
AT TIMES OVER OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-302300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.071202T0000Z-071203T1000Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
957 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 

THE FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM OF THE YOUNG SEASON COULD AFFECT THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A WELL DEVELOPED STORM OVER THE PLAINS
STATES ON SATURDAY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...THEN MILDER AIR COULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO
A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY RAIN FOR A TIME
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE FOR
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

NYZ003-004-013-014-302300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.071202T0600Z-071203T1000Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA
957 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 

THE STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...THEN MILDER AIR COULD CHANGE
THE SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY RAIN FOR
A TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL THEN
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM WILL MOVE EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE FOR
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND..

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

NYZ005-302300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.071202T1200Z-071203T1000Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FAIR HAVEN
957 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 

THE STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...
 THEN MILDER AIR COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE THE SNOW TO A MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY RAIN FOR A TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE FOR
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$


JJP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
112 PM EST WED NOV 28 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...REACHING CENTRAL QUEBEC
BY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS US
THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO PROBLEMS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MOVES TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF NEXT LOW ALREADY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NIAGARA PENINSULA WITH LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF BUFFALO TO NY/PA BORDER AND LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO VCNTY SODUS BAY WITH SOME
LINGERING FLURRIES THERE THAT SHLD END BY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH
PTLY SUNNY FOR BULK OF FINGER LKS REGION AND NORTH COUNTRY.
INTERVALS OF SUN THEN INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND INTERVALS OF SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOWERED MAX TEMPS
JUST AB IT ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING AND WINTRY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY. IN THE MEAN
TIME AN UPPER LOW AND LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE FIRST PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE COULD EASILY SEE GUSTS OVER
40 MPH AGAIN.

BOUNDARY LATER TEMPERATURES WILL INTIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR
A MIX OR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND WET SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CHANGE THE TYPE TO SNOW FOR ALL AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT BANDS SETTING UP EAST OF THE LAKES
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES
WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE...A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO UPGRADE TO WARNINGS
JUST YET. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR STEERING WINDS FOR BAND
LOCATIONS AND ORIENTATION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STEERING
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
WINDS WILL BACK SOMEWHAT FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING. STAY TUNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING AND DRIER AIR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
SHOULD DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DURING THE
COURSE OF SATURDAY...WITH FORECAST CONCERNS SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD.

DURING THIS TIME FRAME...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID...A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY CONTINUES TO
EXIST CONCERNING THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW...A FACTOR THAT WILL
PLAY AN IMPORTANT PART IN WHAT THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE LIKE DURING
THE EVENT.

AT THIS POINT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THE MORE
WESTERLY/WARMER ECMWF TRACK OF THE LOW. AS A RESULT...HAVE STARTED
THE PRECIP OUT IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING
PER EXISTING CONTINUITY...THEN HAVE INTRODUCED A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE CHANGING EVERYTHING BACK TO
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND HAVE THUS INDICATED HIGHER POPS IN THE FAVORED
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET.

AFTER 00Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...
ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS A
RESULT...CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
CEILINGS BETWEEN 3 THOUSAND AND 5 THOUSAND FEET DEVELOPING BY 10Z.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

OF BIGGER CONCERN TO THE AVIATION COMMUNITY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE SHARPLY TO THE 45-55
KNOT RANGE AT 2 THOUSAND FEET...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
AHEAD OF THE LOW.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE LOW WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD.

A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THAT SAID...THE
BREAK WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD FRESHEN
TO SCA LEVELS AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM
TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN LIKELY REACH TO
GALE FORCE LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJP/SAGE
NEAR TERM...JJP
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
526 AM EST WED NOV 28 2007

NYZ001-002-010-011-013-014-021-291030-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
526 AM EST WED NOV 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME BUT IF IT
STAYS MOSTLY SNOW...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH STRONG WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT
IMPLICATIONS INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019-020-085-291030-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
526 AM EST WED NOV 28 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

IN ADDITION...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME BUT IF IT
STAYS MOSTLY SNOW...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH STRONG WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT
IMPLICATIONS INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-291030-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
526 AM EST WED NOV 28 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

IN ADDITION...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME BUT IF IT
STAYS MOSTLY SNOW...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH STRONG WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT
IMPLICATIONS INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-291030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
526 AM EST WED NOV 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
GALE FORCE OR STRONGER WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A DEEP
LOW MAY PASS JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>005-291030-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
526 AM EST WED NOV 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP TYPE IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME BUT IF IT
STAYS MOSTLY SNOW...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH STRONG WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT
IMPLICATIONS INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SAGE