Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2007
Lake Effect Snow Warning 12, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Nov 6, 2007, 7:24 AM EST for 4 counties in New York. It was in force for 29 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 6, 2007, 7:24 AM EST (12:24 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 7, 2007, 12:00 PM EST
- In force
- 29 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 48 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1243 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 52 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 73 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS41 KBUF 061224 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 724 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...FIRST LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF THE SEASON... .COLD AIR CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE REGION EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES AND SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO. OFF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND EFFECT THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. NYZ012-019-020-085-062030- /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-071107T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0012.071106T1224Z-071107T1100Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 724 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES AND SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING AND THUNDER AT TIMES. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE SNOWBAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO SOUTH BUFFALO AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 7PM THE BAND WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTIES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY TREACHEROUS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE HEAVY WET SNOW COULD ALSO BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS THAT ARE STILL LEAFED OUT. THIS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES AS LINES ARE BROUGHT DOWN BY THE TREE LIMBS. CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER, FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, AS MUCH AS 6 TO 12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BY EVENING. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT... BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND NEED TO USE YOUR PORTABLE GENERATOR REMEMBER TO FOLLOW ALL OF THE SAFETY RULES TO ENSURE THAT YOU DO NOT BECOME A VICTIM OF CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ NYZ010-011-062030- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0022.071106T1224Z-071107T1100Z/ NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 724 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES AND SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING AND THUNDER AT TIMES. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE SNOWBAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO SOUTH BUFFALO AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 7PM THE BAND WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTIES. CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER, FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 INCHES OF NEW SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BY EVENING. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT... BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ NYZ006>008-062030- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0013.071106T2300Z-071107T2300Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 724 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LAKE EFFECT BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 1000 FEET TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE FOR RESIDENTS AND TRAVELERS ON THE TUG HILL. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$
7 follow-up statements
000 WWUS41 KBUF 061228 CCA WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 727 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...FIRST LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF THE SEASON... .COLD AIR CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE REGION EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES AND SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO. OFF LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND EFFECT THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. NYZ012-019-020-085-062045- /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-071107T1100Z/ /O.COR.KBUF.LE.W.0012.071106T1227Z-071107T1100Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 727 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES AND SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING AND THUNDER AT TIMES. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE SNOWBAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO SOUTH BUFFALO AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 7PM THE BAND WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTIES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY TREACHEROUS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE HEAVY WET SNOW COULD ALSO BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS THAT ARE STILL LEAFED OUT. THIS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES AS LINES ARE BROUGHT DOWN BY THE TREE LIMBS. CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER, FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, AS MUCH AS 6 TO 12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BY EVENING. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT... BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. IF YOU LOSE POWER AND NEED TO USE YOUR PORTABLE GENERATOR REMEMBER TO FOLLOW ALL OF THE SAFETY RULES TO ENSURE THAT YOU DO NOT BECOME A VICTIM OF CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ NYZ010-011-062045- /O.COR.KBUF.LE.Y.0022.071106T1227Z-071107T1100Z/ NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 727 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES AND SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING AND THUNDER AT TIMES. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THE SNOWBAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO SOUTH BUFFALO AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 7PM THE BAND WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTIES. CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER, FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 INCHES OF NEW SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BY EVENING. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT... BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ NYZ006>008-062045- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0013.071106T2300Z-071107T2300Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 727 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LAKE EFFECT BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 1000 FEET TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE FOR RESIDENTS AND TRAVELERS ON THE TUG HILL. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$
000 WWUS41 KBUF 062039 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 339 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE... .THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YOUNG SEASON WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE MILD WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF LAKE ERIE BUT THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWARD DRIFT LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW AFTER 10 PM NORTH OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. IT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU SOUTHWARD. AS IS TYPICAL WITH EARLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...THERE WILL ALSO BE TIMES OF THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. NYZ012-085-070445- /O.EXT.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-071107T0500Z/ WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 339 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING FURTHER SOUTH. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH. ANYONE DRIVING ACROSS THAT REGION SHOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF DIFFICULT TRAVEL. EXERCISE YOUR BEST WINTER DRIVING SKILLS. BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ NYZ019-020-070445- /O.EXT.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-071107T1700Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN 339 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. 6 TO 8 INCHES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND WESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES...LESS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND OVER EASTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY WITH STORM TOTALS CLOSE TO A FOOT IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF TREE LIMBS DOWN ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES. MORE OF THIS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. ANYONE DRIVING ACROSS THAT REGION SHOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF DIFFICULT TRAVEL. EXERCISE YOUR BEST WINTER DRIVING SKILLS. BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ NYZ006>008-070445- /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0013.071106T2300Z-071107T2300Z/ /O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0022.071107T0300Z-071107T2300Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 339 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. AS COLD AIR DEEPENS TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE HEAVIEST WILL CONCENTRATE FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT AND THE BANDS DRIFT SOUTHWARD. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU SOUTHWARD. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTALS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE. ANYONE DRIVING ACROSS THAT REGION SHOULD EXPECT DIFFICULT TRAVEL. EXERCISE YOUR BEST WINTER DRIVING SKILLS. BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ NYZ010-011-070100- /O.EXT.KBUF.LE.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-071107T0100Z/ NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 339 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER FEW INCHES EXPECTED BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8PM...MAINLY SOUTH OF A BUFFALO TO BATAVIA LINE. THE BAND WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 8 PM. ANYONE DRIVING ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF DIFFICULT TRAVEL...INCLUDING RUSH HOUR. EXERCISE YOUR BEST WINTER DRIVING SKILLS. BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ SAGE
000 WWUS41 KBUF 062359 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 659 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE... .THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YOUNG SEASON WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE MILD WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF LAKE ERIE BUT THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWARD DRIFT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW AFTER 10 PM NORTH OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. IT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU SOUTHWARD. AS IS TYPICAL WITH EARLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...THERE WILL ALSO BE TIMES OF THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. NYZ010-011-070100- /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-071107T0100Z/ NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 659 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT....BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. $$ NYZ012-085-070500- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-071107T0500Z/ WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 659 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING FURTHER SOUTH. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH. ANYONE DRIVING ACROSS THAT REGION SHOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF DIFFICULT TRAVEL. EXERCISE YOUR BEST WINTER DRIVING SKILLS. BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ NYZ019-020-070800- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-071107T1700Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN 659 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. 6 TO 8 INCHES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED BY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND WESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES...LESS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND OVER EASTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY WITH STORM TOTALS CLOSE TO A FOOT IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF TREE LIMBS DOWN ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES. MORE OF THIS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. ANYONE DRIVING ACROSS THAT REGION SHOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF DIFFICULT TRAVEL. EXERCISE YOUR BEST WINTER DRIVING SKILLS. BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ NYZ006>008-070800- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0022.071107T0300Z-071107T2300Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 659 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. AS COLD AIR DEEPENS TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE HEAVIEST WILL CONCENTRATE FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT AND THE BANDS DRIFT SOUTHWARD. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU SOUTHWARD. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTALS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE. ANYONE DRIVING ACROSS THAT REGION SHOULD EXPECT DIFFICULT TRAVEL. EXERCISE YOUR BEST WINTER DRIVING SKILLS. BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ TMA
000 WWUS41 KBUF 070451 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1151 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE... .THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YOUNG SEASON WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE MILD WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF LAKE ERIE BUT THERE WILL BE A SOUTHWARD DRIFT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW AFTER 10 PM NORTH OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. IT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU SOUTHWARD. AS IS TYPICAL WITH EARLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...THERE WILL ALSO BE TIMES OF THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. NYZ012-085-070600- /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-071107T0500Z/ WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1151 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES. $$ NYZ019-020-071300- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-071107T1700Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN 1151 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND WESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES...LESS NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND OVER EASTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY WITH STORM TOTALS CLOSE TO A FOOT IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF TREE LIMBS DOWN ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES. MORE OF THIS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. ANYONE DRIVING ACROSS THAT REGION SHOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF DIFFICULT TRAVEL. EXERCISE YOUR BEST WINTER DRIVING SKILLS. BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ NYZ006>008-071300- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-071107T2300Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 1151 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. AS COLD AIR DEEPENS OVERNIGHT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL CONCENTRATE AROUND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT AND THE BANDS DRIFT SOUTHWARD. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU SOUTHWARD. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTALS FOR OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE. ANYONE DRIVING ACROSS THAT REGION SHOULD EXPECT DIFFICULT TRAVEL. EXERCISE YOUR BEST WINTER DRIVING SKILLS. BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ TMA
000 WWUS41 KBUF 070815 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 315 AM EST WED NOV 7 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY... .COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE MILD WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF LAKE ERIE BUT IT WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. IT WILL CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. NYZ019-020-071615- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-071107T1700Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN 315 AM EST WED NOV 7 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BRING STORM TOTALS CLOSE TO A FOOT WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN THE MOST PERSISTENT. IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ NYZ006>008-071615- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-071107T2300Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 315 AM EST WED NOV 7 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU TODAY...WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$
000 WWUS41 KBUF 071443 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 943 AM EST WED NOV 7 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY EAST OF LAKE ERIE... .COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW ACROSS THE MILD WATERS OF LAKE ERIE TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS DIMINISHED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NYZ006>008-071545- /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-071107T2300Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 943 AM EST WED NOV 7 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS DIMINISHED TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. THEREFORE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ NYZ019-020-071700- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-071107T1700Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN 943 AM EST WED NOV 7 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTALS INTO THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE... WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ HITCHCOCK
000 WWUS41 KBUF 071658 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1158 AM EST WED NOV 7 2007 NYZ019-020-071800- /O.EXP.KBUF.LE.W.0012.000000T0000Z-071107T1700Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN 1158 AM EST WED NOV 7 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO ONLY AN INCH OR TWO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...THEREFORE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. $$ HITCHCOCK
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Nov 6, 7:15 AM EST, 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 6, 7:15 AM EST, 9 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
715 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM LAKE HURON TODAY AND BRING COLD
AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT COLD AIR WILL
PERSIST AND ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
06Z NAM SHOWS IT MORE DEVELOPED THAN THE 00Z RUN. THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST THIS MORNING...DOWN TO AROUND -5 AND THEN
RISING TO AROUND -3 THIS AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR CIRCULATES AROUND
THE LOW FROM THE NORTH. THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATION WOULD
BE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL. THE 06Z RUN PULLS THE BAND FURTHER NORTH AND
KEEPS IT OVER BUFFALO LATER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING IT
SOUTH AND LOSING ITS INTENSE ORGANIZATION WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS
AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE NEAR 40, AND SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 4OS IN
BUFFALO METRO BEFORE THE BAND MOVES NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
WARM AIR, WITH A FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET TO KEEP
IT ALL RAIN, BUT IF THE BAND IS INTENSE ENOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATION OF WET SNOW LATE IN THE DAY. THE LAKE ADVISORY STILL
LOOKS GOOD, AND OUR SNOW GRIDS WERE BASED ON THE 00Z NAM QPF,
WHICH SHOWS UP TO 8 INCHES OVER 24 HOURS IN SOME HIGHER SPOTS. WE
DROPPED ALLEGANY COUNTY FROM THE WATCH WITH ACCUMULATIONS TOO
LIGHT DUE TO DISTANCE FROM THE INTENSE BAND.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, IT SHOULD BE ALL RAIN TODAY THEN ELEVATION
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN ACCUMULATION WITH UP TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY ON THE TUG HILL. WE HAVE KEPT THE
WATCH GOING, AND THE DAY SHIFT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE DECIDING TO GO WITH A WARNING OR ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT, BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE ACCUMULATIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NAM SHOWS LESS QPF OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR
LIMITING ORGANIZATION. THE THREAT IS STRONGER OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE
WE HAVE RAISED THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH LATER FORECAST PACKAGES. THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WITH COPIOUS SHEAR SHUTTING OFF THE
LAKE MACHINE, BUT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD AIR
FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN US WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. ONE
LAST SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE
WESTERN RIDGE MOVES IN TO THE EASTERN US FOR THE WEEKEND...KEEPING
THE WEATHER OVER WESTERN NY DRY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP ON MONDAY. THE GFS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH THE INTENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT MIDWEST LOW...WITH THE GEFS KEEPING THE
SYSTEM FURTHER WEST AND THE ECMWF MUCH FURTHER NORTH. THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO LARGE SCALE FEATURES TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWER IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN IMPRESSIVE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED OFF
LAKE ERIE FROM ERIE PA TO JUST SOUTH OF BATAVIA. WITHIN THE BAND
THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAND WITH
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS EVEN SOME THUNDER AS WELL. THE BAND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TWD BUFFALO BUT IT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF KIAG. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE ROC AIRPORT AS WELL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BY
15Z.
A SECONDARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH THE WINDS TO A MORE WEST TO
NW DIRECTION AND DROP THE BAND TO THE SOUTH BY ARND 22Z-23Z.
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A 20 MILE MILD WIDE
BAND OF INTENSE PRECIPITATION OFF LAKE ERIE DRIFTING NORTH DURING
THE DAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAND.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SHLD STAY FRM
WATERTOWN NORTHTWARD WITH MVFR CIGS BY ARND 15Z. BY ARND 04Z AN AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN SHWRS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AND CREATE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT WATERTOWN THROUGH ARND 08Z WITH A MIX OR ALL SNOW OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BAND SHLD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH
THE ACTIVITY SETTING UP SE OF THE LAKES WEDNESDAY WIHT THE MAIN AREA
OFF LAKE ONTARIO BETWEEN KROC AND KSYR. OFF LAKE ERIE IT WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND HAVE AN IMPACT ON KJHW AVIATION
OPERATIONS.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
IN VARYING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN VFR UNDER A RIDGE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ERIE AND THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND THE NEARSHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM THE NIAGARA
RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH INTO THIS EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVSRYS FOR
THE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUF HARBOR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THE
REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THORUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE STRONG WINDS ARE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC LATE TONIGHT. A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDER IN THE BAND AS WELL. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH TODAY AND THEN SWING SOUTH AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SECONDARY TROUGH THIS EVENING THAT WILL TURN THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST.
ON LAKE ONTARIO THE BAND IS EXPECT TO MOVE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ006>008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ010-
011.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
019-020-085.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ063>065.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042-062.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LOZ043>045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...APB
NEAR TERM...APB
SHORT TERM...APB
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...JJP
MARINE...JJPHazardous weather outlook, Nov 6, 5:25 AM EST, 1 hour 59 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 525 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 NYZ012-019-020-085-071000- WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- 525 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ006>008-071000- OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- 525 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-021-071000- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY- 525 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-LOZ043>045-SLZ022-024-071000- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 525 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ040-041-071000- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 525 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LOZ042-062-071000- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 525 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LOZ063>065-071000- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 525 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Nov 6, 7:13 AM EST, 11 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 713 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 NYZ010>012-019>021-085-061515- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 713 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2007 ...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE SEASON UNDERWAY... AT 7 THIS MORNING A WELL ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAD ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ERIE, WESTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. LIGHTER SNOW HAD ALSO MOVED INTO THE BUFFALO SOUTHERN SUBURBS. IN THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE BAND, WHICH WILL ENCOMPASS AREAS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE, TO ABOUT 10 MILES INLAND, EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM AN INCH TO UP TO 3 INCHES TO ACCUMULATE BY LATE MORNING, WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, AS WELL AS NORTHERN ERIE AND WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES, UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED, MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 7:24 AM EST | Lake Effect Snow Advisory | BUF | Erie, Genesee, Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego | 26 hr |
| Nov 6, 9:46 AM EST | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 3 hr |
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2007Every lake effect snow warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.