Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Advisories in 2007

Lake Effect Snow Advisory 9, NWS Buffalo, NY

January 31, 20074 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow advisory at Jan 31, 2007, 12:14 PM EST for 4 counties in New York. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 31, 2007, 12:14 PM EST (17:14 UTC)
Expired
Jan 31, 2007, 6:35 PM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Niagara County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 28 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2007-01-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2007-01-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 143 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1052 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
64 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
143 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
186 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 311714
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1214 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE...

.A COLD WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE TODAY...AND
OFF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLUFFY LOW WATER
CONTENT LAKE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MILES
AN HOUR AT TIMES...SO ALONG WITH THE ACCUMULATIONS... THERE WILL
BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO CONTEND WITH AS WELL.

OFF LAKE ERIE FRESH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING
COUNTIES. OFF LAKE ONTARIO A VERY IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF HEAVY LAKE
SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE THAN A FOOT OF
FRESH POWDER TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION.

GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND VERY
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH OVER A FOOT OF WIND BLOWN
FRESH POWDERY SNOW REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

WHILE THE LAKE ERIE SNOWS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH ACCUMULATIONS
CLIMBING WELL PAST A FOOT.

NYZ006>008-010115-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070201T1100Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1214 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

A PLUME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONCENTRATE
OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND AREAS BETWEEN ADAMS CENTER AND
PULASKI THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR
WILL RESULT IN FRESH ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT TODAY.

THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CONTINUING. THE
SNOWS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE TOTAL
SNOWFALL OVER THE TUG HILL REGION REACHES 2 TO 3 FEET.

THE SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY  WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MILES AN HOUR AT TIMES. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AND VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH ONE TO TWO FEET OF
WIND BLOWN FRESH POWDERY SNOW REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO ZERO AT
TIMES.

TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THIS AREA WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL INCLUDE INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN
PULASKI AND ADAMS CENTER.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-312100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070131T2100Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1214 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A MAINLY ICE FREE LAKE ERIE WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TODAY WITH FRESH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COME AS A
RESULT OF SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR...WITH THE
HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...NORTHWEST CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTY.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS WILL BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS ROUND OF LAKE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS TO
30 MILES AN HOUR...AND BECAUSE OF THE LOW WATER CONTENT OF THE
SNOW...THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW TO
CONTEND WITH AS WELL. THE VISIBILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MAY DROP TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES...MAKING TRAVEL EVEN MORE
DIFFICULT.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ013-312100-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.070131T1714Z-070131T2100Z/
LIVINGSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GENESEO
1214 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MAINLY ICE FREE LAKE ERIE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO EXTEND WELL INLAND INTO LIVINGSTON COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. IN
ADDITION...WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH MAY DROP VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 500 FEET AT
TIMES MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

HITCHCOCK
3 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS41 KBUF 311727 RRA
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1214 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS CONTINUE...

.A COLD WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE TODAY...AND
OFF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLUFFY LOW WATER
CONTENT LAKE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MILES
AN HOUR AT TIMES...SO ALONG WITH THE ACCUMULATIONS... THERE WILL
BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO CONTEND WITH AS WELL.

OFF LAKE ERIE FRESH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING
COUNTIES. OFF LAKE ONTARIO A VERY IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF HEAVY LAKE
SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE THAN A FOOT OF
FRESH POWDER TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION.

GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND VERY
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH OVER A FOOT OF WIND BLOWN
FRESH POWDERY SNOW REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

WHILE THE LAKE ERIE SNOWS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH ACCUMULATIONS
CLIMBING WELL PAST A FOOT.

NYZ006>008-010115-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070201T1100Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1214 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

A PLUME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONCENTRATE
OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND AREAS BETWEEN ADAMS CENTER AND
PULASKI THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR
WILL RESULT IN FRESH ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT TODAY.

THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CONTINUING. THE
SNOWS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE TOTAL
SNOWFALL OVER THE TUG HILL REGION REACHES 2 TO 3 FEET.

THE SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY  WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MILES AN HOUR AT TIMES. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AND VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH ONE TO TWO FEET OF
WIND BLOWN FRESH POWDERY SNOW REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO ZERO AT
TIMES.

TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THIS AREA WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL INCLUDE INTERSTATE 81 BETWEEN
PULASKI AND ADAMS CENTER.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-312100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070131T2100Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1214 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS A MAINLY ICE FREE LAKE ERIE WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TODAY WITH FRESH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL COME AS A
RESULT OF SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR...WITH THE
HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...NORTHWEST CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...SOUTHERN ERIE
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTY.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS WILL BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS ROUND OF LAKE SNOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS TO
30 MILES AN HOUR...AND BECAUSE OF THE LOW WATER CONTENT OF THE
SNOW...THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW TO
CONTEND WITH AS WELL. THE VISIBILITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MAY DROP TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES...MAKING TRAVEL EVEN MORE
DIFFICULT.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ013-312100-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.070131T1714Z-070131T2100Z/
LIVINGSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GENESEO
1214 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MAINLY ICE FREE LAKE ERIE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO EXTEND WELL INLAND INTO LIVINGSTON COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. IN
ADDITION...WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH MAY DROP VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 500 FEET AT
TIMES MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

HITCHCOCK
000 
WWUS41 KBUF 312013
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
313 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...

.A COLD WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES 
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE INTO 
THIS EVENING...AND OFF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH TONIGHT.

OFF LAKE ERIE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND 
WYOMING COUNTIES WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 
NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS EVENING...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY 
SNOWFALL DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE METRO AREA DURING 
THE EVENING COMMUTE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE 
TO LIFT NORTH INTO NIAGARA COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE 
WEAKENING BY MIDNIGHT.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A PLUME OF INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE 
ACROSS NORTHERN OSWEGO...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...AND SOUTHERN LEWIS 
COUNTIES THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR 
CONTINUING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THIS BAND OF LAKE EFFECT 
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES 
BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL 
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 
500 FEET AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

NYZ019-020-312115-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070131T2100Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
313 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

LAKE SNOWS WILL SHIFT NORTH OUT OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEREFORE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING HAS BEN CANCELLED. ROADS MAY REMAIN SNOW COVERED ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.

$$

NYZ012-085-010100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070201T0100Z/
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
313 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE BAND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DAY TO 6 TO
12 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ006>008-010415-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070201T1100Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
313 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

A PLUME OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY 
ACROSS NORTHERN OSWEGO...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...AND SOUTHERN LEWIS 
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN PULASKI AND ADAMS 
CENTER EXTENDING EAST INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 
TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS 
BAND. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO 
LIFT NORTH ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING 
WATERTOWN. 

SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS BETWEEN PULASKI 
AND ADAMS CENTER EXTENDING EAST INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WITH LOCAL 
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 FEET ON THE TUG. AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH THROUGH 
JEFFERSON COUNTY LATER TONIGHT...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATERTOWN AREA.

THE SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 
MILES AN HOUR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO 
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THIS AREA WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS IF NOT 
IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL INCLUDE INTERSTATE 81 AND ROUTE 11 
BETWEEN PULASKI AND ADAMS CENTER.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

$$

NYZ001-010-011-010400-
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-070201T0400Z/
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
313 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN MORE OPEN AREAS. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN 500 FEET AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW. 

WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVE...MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
WILL CREATE VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ013-010100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-070201T0100Z/
LIVINGSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GENESEO
313 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST
THIS EVENING. 

A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INLAND OFF
LAKE ERIE THROUGH PORTIONS OF LIVINGSTON COUNTY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. LATER THIS EVENING THE LAKE SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OUT OF THE COUNTY. 

IN ADDITION TO SNOWFALL...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW INTO THIS EVENING WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 500 FEET AT TIMES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

HITCHCOCK
000 
WWUS41 KBUF 312335
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
635 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

NYZ012-085-010045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070201T0100Z/
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
635 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE WEAKENED AND LIFTED NORTH OF THE 
AREA. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ001-010-011-010045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-070201T0400Z/
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...BATAVIA
635 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAVE WEAKENED THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION HAS ENDED. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.

$$

NYZ013-010045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-070201T0100Z/
LIVINGSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GENESEO
635 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE WEAKENED AND LIFTED NORTH OF THE 
AREA. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ006>008-010745-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070201T1100Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
635 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY. 

A PLUME OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS NORTHERN OSWEGO...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...AND SOUTHERN LEWIS
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN PULASKI AND ADAMS
CENTER EXTENDING EAST INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION
OF THIS BAND. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE LAKE SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...
INCLUDING WATERTOWN.

SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS BETWEEN
PULASKI AND ADAMS CENTER EXTENDING EAST INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 FEET ON THE TUG. AS THE BAND LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH JEFFERSON COUNTY LATER TONIGHT...4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATERTOWN AREA.

THE SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MILES AN HOUR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THIS AREA WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL INCLUDE INTERSTATE 81 AND ROUTE
11 BETWEEN PULASKI AND ADAMS CENTER.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

$$

TMA

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow advisory went out at Jan 31, 10:10 AM EST, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 10:10 AM EST, 2 hours 4 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007

.UPDATE...

LAKE SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE HAS INTENSIFIED AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OVER THE PAST HOUR AND WILL HAVE A FULL FETCH ALONG THE LENGTH
OF LAKE ERIE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THUS HAVE UPGRADED TO LAKE
SNOW WARNING FOR THE PRIOR ADVISORY AREA AND INCLUDED WYOMING
COUNTY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL WARM
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE INTENSITY DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW MAY FALL BEFORE THEN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WARNED AREA.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE PLUME IS NOW WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG THE FULL
LENGTH OF THE LAKE AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THAT THE UPSTREAM PLUME
FROM LAKE HURON WILL SOON ADD TO THE SNOW PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY.
SNOW TOTALS WILL EXCEED 2 FEET AND 3 FEET IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER
TROUGH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS JUST DOWNWIND OF
THE LAKES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL ADD TO THE HEAVY LAKE
SNOWS AND WILL FURTHER WORSEN CONDITIONS IN THE LAKE SNOW WARNING
AREAS.

HIBBERT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 653 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007/

AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...

A COLD WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO THE EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. OFF OF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE SNOWS WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND
WITHIN THE KERI-KJHW-KELZ-KDKK CORRIDOR...WHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO
LAKE SNOWS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED BETWEEN KFZY AND KART. WITHIN
THESE AREAS...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...WITH
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. THE KJHW AND KART
TERMINALS WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF THE LAKE SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND THUS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE RAPIDLY VARYING CONDITIONS
FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO SUBTLE SHIFTS IN WIND DIRECTION.

IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE SNOWS...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
THE 15-25 KT RANGE AREA-WIDE TODAY...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30
KTS. SUCH WINDS COULD PRODUCE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING
SNOW...EVEN WHERE ITS NOT ACTUALLY SNOWING TODAY.

AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AND BACK TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY TURNING SOUTHERLY BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
LAKE SNOWS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF KBUF AND KART
THIS EVENING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE AREA AND ALL BUT
DISSIPATING BY LATE TONIGHT. THE SNOWS OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KBUF BETWEEN 00Z AND
04Z...WHILE THEIR STRONGER COUNTERPARTS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO APPEAR
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LONGER PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KART
BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE SNOWS...CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN GENERALLY BE MVFR TO VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007/

UPDATE...

AN EARLY UPDATE TO HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTY WHERE RADAR SHOWS LAKE SNOWS INTENSIFYING. THE NAM 925
OMEGA MAXIMUM IS STRONG JUST WEST OF THE COUNTY AT 09Z AND
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY AT 12Z. IF THE BAND
CONTINUES, 3 TO 6 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LAKE SNOWS REMAIN SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT IT
SHOULD BE BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

OFF LAKE ERIE THE NAM 925 OMEGA FIELD INTENSIFIES ACROSS NORTHERN
CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES IN THE MORNING WHICH SHOULD
BRING THE CURRENT LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER NORTH. IT LOOKS MARGINAL FOR ADVISORY
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WITH THE COLD AIR LOW DENSITY SNOW WILL PILE
UP UNLESS WINDS PUSH IT AROUND TOO MUCH, WHICH WOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH LOW VISIBILITY TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE
OMEGA FIELD SHIFTS NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH AND WINDS SHIFT. THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD FOLLOW AND
COULD DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO THIS EVENING IN THE BUFFALO AREA
BEFORE PETERING OUT.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE LAKE SNOWS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AT THIS
TIME OVER SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY, WHICH FOLLOWS THE 925 OMEGA VERY
CLOSELY. THE NAM SHOWS THE BAND OVER SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AT 7
AM, THEN MUCH MORE INTENSE FURTHER NORTH OF THE TUG HILL AT 10 AM,
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE INTENSE
BAND FINALLY MOVES TO NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF IT ALL THURSDAY MORNING IS THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM WITH MOISTURE MOVING IN ALOFT AND ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A WEAK THREAT OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...BUT A BETTER
CHANCE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL ONLY SEEM A NUISANCE TO LAKE SNOW
LOVERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
BULK OF NORTH AMERICA. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT THE COLDER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...ALONG WITH
DAILY LAKE SNOWS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

A DEEP POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING
THE PERIOD...LARGELY DUE TO A PERSISTENT GREENLAND BLOCK. THE
CONTROLLING -NAO/+PNA PATTERN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN
WITHIN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO
THE MENTIONED GREENLAND BLOCK. THIS WOULD NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AT WHICH TIME THE POLAR VORTEX WOULD BE
ALLOWED TO ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC TO SCANDINAVIA. THERE
WOULD STILL BE THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST TO DEAL
WITH THOUGH IN TERMS OF ALLOWING COLD AIR TO CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE WOULD BE ALLOWED TO ESCAPE THESE LONGITUDES.

AGAIN...THE MUCH WEAKENED STATE OF THE CURRENT EL NINO MAY HAVE HAD
A HAND IN ALLOWING THIS WHOLE PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS...BUT THAT IS A DISCUSSION FOR A LATER TIME.

BITTER COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC WILL AGAIN BE SPILLING SOUTH
DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH H8 TEMPS
TUMBLING FROM AND AVERAGE OF -18C ON SATURDAY TO ROUGHLY -25C ON
TUESDAY. THESE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITHIN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS ALONG WITH ITS PAST SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MODEL RUN.

WHILE THE LAKES ARE STILL WIDE OPEN...THE BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.
REGIONWIDE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON DURING THE
PERIOD WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AT LEAST 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN REGARDS TO LAKE ICE...THERE IS SOME SHORE ICE ON BOTH LAKES WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ICE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE MORE SHALLOW
LAKE ERIE.

NOW FOR SOME FORECAST DETAILS...

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL HELP TO USHER IN THE FIRST WAVE OF FRESH
ARCTIC AIR. A PINCHED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH 10K FT WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
WITH IMPRESSIVE LAKE SNOWS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING IN THE SNOW BELTS
WEST OF BOTH LAKES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...AND YES...THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON.

GIVEN A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OF H8 TEMPS OF -22 TO -26C MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...SCT -SHSN WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REGION WITH STEADIER MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOWS FOUND IN THE SNOWBELTS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

DAYTIME HIGHS DURING THE WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGITS TO ABOUT 15 BELOW IN THE COLDEST SPOTS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THESE NUMBERS WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME LINGERING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO IFR TILL AROUND 09Z. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE TIL ROUGHLY 14Z OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
EFFECT AREAS...WITH MVFR CIGS GENERALLY EXPECTED AFTER 14Z.

MEANWHILE IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST OF BOTH
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR TO LIFR AT TIMES
TODAY. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AROUND MIDDAY COULD
EVEN BRING A BURST OF SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
WATERTOWN AREA FROM AROUND 16Z-19Z.

SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
THURSDAY. DURING THE COURSE OF THURSDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AND DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS FOLLOWING SUIT
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

MEANWHILE ON LAKE ONTARIO...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS TODAY AS WEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS. ACROSS THE NEARSHORE ZONES...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO THE GUSTY WEST WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

UPDATE...JJR
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 31, 4:08 AM EST, 8 hours 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
408 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007

NYZ001>004-010>014-021-010915-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
408 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-085-010915-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
408 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. ANOTHER 3 TO 5
INCHES IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE LAKE SNOWS WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ005>008-010915-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
408 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOR NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. ELSEWHERE A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER A FOOT...WITH BRISK WINDS
PRODUCING VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THE HEAVY
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD BE OVER THE TUG HILL EAST OF PULASKI BY LATE
MORNING, THEN MOVE NORTH TOWARD NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-010915-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
408 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Advisories in New York, 2007Every lake effect snow advisory in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.