Lake Effect Snow Advisory 27, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
624 AM EST THU DEC 6 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS
THE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS WEEK. THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOVING THROUGH THE
BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS BUT THE SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE REGION WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY.
SOME LAKE SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS SHOW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH BAND OF LAKE EFFECT ALONG SOUTH SHORE OF LK
ONTARIO FROM ORLEANS COUNTY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LKLY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ERIE
WEAKENING A BIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TOWARD EVENING AS
WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SW THE BAND WILL REORGANIZE AND DRIFT NORTH
THROUGH METRO BUF TO THE NIAGARA PENINUSLA WHERE IT WEAKENS LATER
THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WENT WITH AN INCH OR SO ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER
AND EXPECT ABT AN INCH AS IT MOVES THROUGH METRO BUF THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ONTARIO SHLD BRING GENLY 1-3 INCHES FRM AROUND
EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY TO THE TUG HILL TODAY. BAND THERE SHLD BEGIN TO
SHIFT NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING AN INCH OR TWO AS IT
MOVES NORTH THROUGH JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES THIS
EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT GFS IS QUICKER IN BRINGING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE EAST TWD WESTERN NY. WILL BRING IN CHANCE OF SNOW
SHWR LATE IN THE FAR WEST AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY THE MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL STAY WITH CAT
POPS FOR A GENERAL SNOW OF ARND AN INCH OR TWO. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WORKS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL LOWER POPS TO LKLY RANGE FROM
FINGER LKS WEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT ESPCLY AFT 06Z. SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO COMBINED WITH BEING CLOSER TO
APPRACHING MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
JUSTIFIES GOING WITH LKLY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH COUNTRY.

SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FEATURE SATURDAY
ESPCLY SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLDER. GFS IS
NOT QUITE AS COLD AT 850 AS NAM/WRF ESPCLY OFF LK ERIE SO THREAT
THERE SHLD BE LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 06Z GFS CONTINUES THE COLDER TREND AND SHOWS CONSIDERABLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THOUGH THE ENSEMBLES
SHOW A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THE 00Z MOS GUIDANCE IS WARMER THAN
THE MEX MOS NUMBERS, BUT IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW, EXCEPT IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN AT TIMES
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AREA IS ALSO TRENDING
FURTHER SOUTH, WITH LIKELY POPS ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
INSIGNIFICANT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SNOW SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW ZERO. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER ONCE AGAIN.

A COLDER TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
AND TUESDAYS SURFACE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST, BUT ENSEMBLE
SPREADS SHOW THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BRING OCCASIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. THE LAKE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH AND
WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER JEFFERSON
COUNTY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING NORTH AND DISSIPATING LATE THIS
EVENING.

OFF LAKE ERIE LAKE SNOWS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITION NORTH
OF JAMESTOWN. THE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND REACH THE BUFFALO AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE FINALLY
MOVING FURTHER NORTH AND DISSIPATING.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY LIKELY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT SUNDAY WITH
A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. COLDER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OVER US EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING
THE FRONTAL ZONE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
INSIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NEEDED.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRISK ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...JJP
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...APB
AVIATION...APB
MARINE...APB

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