Alert archive / New York / Heavy Snow Warnings in 2007
Heavy Snow Warning 4, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this heavy snow warning at Dec 12, 2007, 3:45 PM EST for 7 counties in New York. It took effect at Dec 13, 2007, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for 11 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 12, 2007, 3:45 PM EST (20:45 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 13, 2007, 7:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Dec 13, 2007, 6:09 PM EST
- In force
- 11 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 53 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 506 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 117 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -228 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -44 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS41 KBUF 122045 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 345 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY... .LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CHESAPEAKE BAY ON THURSDAY WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE. THE SNOW SHOULD START OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER EARLY IN THE MORNING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STEADY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND METRO BUFFALO...EASTWARD TO ROCHESTER AND ACROSS OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES. SNOWFALL WITHIN THIS AREA WILL TOTAL 3 TO 6 INCHES BUT WILL STILL POSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY. NYZ012>014-019>021-085-130445- /O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0006.071213T1200Z-071214T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.HS.W.0004.071213T1200Z-071214T0000Z/ WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 345 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HEAVY SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY NOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED AND MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING MID DAY. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN 7 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE ON UNPLOWED ROADS. IF YOU MUST DRIVE, ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION, AND KEEP AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR CAR IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. $$ NYZ001>006-010-011-130445- /O.NEW.KBUF.SN.Y.0008.071213T1200Z-071214T0000Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-NORTHERN ERIE- GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 345 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY. SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BECOME STEADY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL FALL AT A RATE APPROACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR AND WILL POSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW TOTALS RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. A SNOW ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN 4 TO 6 INCHES ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NO SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT UNPLOWED ROADS WILL BE HAZARDOUS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$
7 follow-up statements
000 WWUS41 KBUF 122100 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 400 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY... .LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CHESAPEAKE BAY ON THURSDAY WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE. THE SNOW SHOULD START OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER EARLY IN THE MORNING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STEADY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND METRO BUFFALO...EASTWARD TO ROCHESTER AND ACROSS OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES. SNOWFALL WITHIN THIS AREA WILL TOTAL 3 TO 6 INCHES BUT WILL STILL POSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY. NYZ012>014-019>021-085-130500- /O.CON.KBUF.HS.W.0004.071213T1200Z-071214T0000Z/ WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 400 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY. SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY NOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED AND MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING MID DAY. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN 7 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE ON UNPLOWED ROADS. IF YOU MUST DRIVE... ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION... AND KEEP AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR CAR IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. $$ NYZ008-130500- /O.EXA.KBUF.SN.Y.0008.071213T1200Z-071214T0000Z/ LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE 400 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY. SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BECOME STEADY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL FALL AT A RATE APPROACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR AND WILL POSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW TOTALS RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. A SNOW ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN 4 TO 6 INCHES ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NO SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED... BUT UNPLOWED ROADS WILL BE HAZARDOUS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ NYZ001>006-010-011-130500- /O.CON.KBUF.SN.Y.0008.071213T1200Z-071214T0000Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-NORTHERN ERIE- GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 400 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY. SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BECOME STEADY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL FALL AT A RATE APPROACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR AND WILL POSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW TOTALS RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. A SNOW ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN 4 TO 6 INCHES ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NO SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED... BUT UNPLOWED ROADS WILL BE HAZARDOUS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$
000 WWUS41 KBUF 130243 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 943 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY... .LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CHESAPEAKE BAY ON THURSDAY WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE. THE SNOW SHOULD START OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER EARLY IN THE MORNING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STEADY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND METRO BUFFALO...EASTWARD TO ROCHESTER AND ACROSS OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES. SNOWFALL WITHIN THIS AREA WILL TOTAL 3 TO 6 INCHES BUT WILL STILL POSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY. NYZ012>014-019>021-085-131045- /O.CON.KBUF.HS.W.0004.071213T1200Z-071214T0000Z/ WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 943 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY. SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY NOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED AND MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING MID DAY. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN 7 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE ON UNPLOWED ROADS. IF YOU MUST DRIVE...ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION... AND KEEP AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR CAR IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. $$ NYZ001>006-008-010-011-131045- /O.CON.KBUF.SN.Y.0008.071213T1200Z-071214T0000Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 943 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY. SNOW WILL START TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BECOME STEADY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL FALL AT A RATE APPROACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR AND WILL POSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW TOTALS RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. A SNOW ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN 4 TO 6 INCHES ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NO SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED... BUT UNPLOWED ROADS WILL BE HAZARDOUS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ TMA
000 WWUS41 KBUF 130832 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 332 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... .LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE TODAY. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STEADY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND METRO BUFFALO...EASTWARD TO ROCHESTER AND ACROSS OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST. NYZ012>014-019>021-085-131645- /O.CON.KBUF.HS.W.0004.071213T1200Z-071214T0000Z/ WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 332 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL START ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EARLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED AND MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SNOW TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN 7 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE ON UNPLOWED ROADS. IF YOU MUST DRIVE...ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION... AND KEEP AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR CAR IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. $$ NYZ001>006-008-010-011-131645- /O.CON.KBUF.SN.Y.0008.071213T1200Z-071214T0000Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 332 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND BECOME MORE STEADY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY FALL AT A RATE OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND WILL POSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. A SNOW ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN 4 TO 6 INCHES ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NO SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED... BUT UNPLOWED ROADS WILL BE HAZARDOUS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ TJP
000 WWUS41 KBUF 131541 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1041 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... .LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE TODAY. THE SNOW MAY FALL AT A RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STEADY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND METRO BUFFALO...EASTWARD TO ROCHESTER AND ACROSS OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST. NYZ012>014-019>021-085-132345- /O.CON.KBUF.HS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-071214T0000Z/ WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1041 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED AND MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SNOW TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN 7 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE ON UNPLOWED ROADS. IF YOU MUST DRIVE...ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION... AND KEEP AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR CAR IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. $$ NYZ001>006-008-010-011-132345- /O.CON.KBUF.SN.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-071214T0000Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 1041 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE SNOW MAY FALL AT A RATE OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND WILL POSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. A SNOW ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN 4 TO 6 INCHES ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NO SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED... BUT UNPLOWED ROADS WILL BE HAZARDOUS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$
000 WWUS41 KBUF 132050 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 350 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...SNOW BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION... .AS LOW PRESSURE LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON THE AREA SNOW HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING. NYZ019-020-085-132200- /O.CAN.KBUF.HS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-071214T0000Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK... SPRINGVILLE 350 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING. THE HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING HOWEVER...USE CAUTION ON UNTREATED AND UNPLOWED ROADS THROUGH THE EVENING. $$ NYZ001-002-010-011-132200- /O.CAN.KBUF.SN.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-071214T0000Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO... BATAVIA 350 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SNOW ADVISORY. THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. IF YOU ARE TRAVELING HOWEVER...USE CAUTION ON UNTREATED AND UNPLOWED ROADS THROUGH THE EVENING. $$ NYZ012>014-021-140000- /O.CON.KBUF.HS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-071214T0000Z/ WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA... WELLSVILLE 350 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS WITH SNOW TOTALS REACHING 6 TO 10 INCHES. SNOWS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN 7 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE ON UNPLOWED ROADS. IF YOU MUST DRIVE...ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION... AND KEEP AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR CAR IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. $$ NYZ003>006-008-140000- /O.CON.KBUF.SN.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-071214T0000Z/ MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN... OSWEGO...LOWVILLE 350 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS WITH SNOW TOTALS REACHING 4 TO 6 INCHES. SNOWS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A SNOW ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN 4 TO 6 INCHES ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NO SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED... BUT UNPLOWED ROADS WILL BE HAZARDOUS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ LEVAN
000 WWUS41 KBUF 132146 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 446 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...SNOW BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION... .AS LOW PRESSURE LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON THE AREA SNOW HAS BEGUN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING. NYZ012-013-021-132300- /O.CAN.KBUF.HS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-071214T0000Z/ WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...WELLSVILLE 446 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING. THE HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...IF YOU ARE TRAVELING USE CAUTION ON UNTREATED AND UNPLOWED ROADS THROUGH THE EVENING. $$ NYZ003-132300- /O.CAN.KBUF.SN.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-071214T0000Z/ MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ROCHESTER 446 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SNOW ADVISORY. THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAVE ENDED ACROSS MONROE COUNTY. HOWEVER...IF YOU ARE TRAVELING USE CAUTION ON UNTREATED AND UNPLOWED ROADS THROUGH THE EVENING. $$ NYZ014-140000- /O.CON.KBUF.HS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-071214T0000Z/ ONTARIO- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CANANDAIGUA 446 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS WITH SNOW TOTALS REACHING 6 TO 10 INCHES. SNOWS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN 7 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE ON UNPLOWED ROADS. IF YOU MUST DRIVE...ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION... AND KEEP AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR CAR IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED. $$ NYZ004>006-008-140000- /O.CON.KBUF.SN.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-071214T0000Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE 446 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS WITH SNOW TOTALS REACHING 4 TO 6 INCHES. SNOWS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A SNOW ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN 4 TO 6 INCHES ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NO SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED... BUT UNPLOWED ROADS WILL BE HAZARDOUS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$ TMA
000 WWUS41 KBUF 132309 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 609 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...SNOW HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION... NYZ014-140015- /O.CAN.KBUF.HS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-071214T0000Z/ ONTARIO- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CANANDAIGUA 609 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING. THE HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAVE ENDED ACROSS ONTARIO COUNTY. HOWEVER...IF YOU ARE TRAVELING USE CAUTION ON UNTREATED AND UNPLOWED ROADS THROUGH THE EVENING. $$ NYZ004>006-008-140015- /O.CAN.KBUF.SN.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-071214T0000Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE 609 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007 ...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SNOW ADVISORY. THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF YOU ARE TRAVELING USE CAUTION ON UNTREATED AND UNPLOWED ROADS THROUGH THE EVENING. $$ TMA
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this heavy snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this heavy snow warning went out at Dec 12, 3:36 PM EST, 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 12, 3:36 PM EST, 9 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
336 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...BUT A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BY EARLY MORNING.
AS THE STORM PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THERE
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SNOW DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. SOME
AREAS MAY RECEIVE AS MUCH AS TEN INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE THE END OF
THE DAY. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL SET UP LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. A HEAVY
SNOW WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY.
ONE SIGNIFICANT FORCING FEATURE FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG AN ELEVATED
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OVER WESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY DURING THE MORNING
AND OVER NORTHCENTRAL AND CENTRAL NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW SOUTHERLY 40-50KT JET AT 850MB ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
THERMAL RIDGE WITH 20-30KT WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT...PROVIDING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE THERMAL FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY...AT 15Z THERE
APPEARS TO BE A COUPLED JET CONFIGURATION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW
WITH A 160KT SPEED MAX OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND ANOTHER 140KT JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN PA. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN JET AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SOUTHERN JET ARE TO EITHER SIDE OF NY AND NRN PA...FURTHER ENHANCING
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. ADD ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A DEEP LAYER OF SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH EFFICIENCY AND
THERE WILL BE HEAVY SNOW WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
AND SNOW TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES.
TO THE NORTH OF THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING WILL BE A SNOW ADVISORY FROM
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AND EASTWARD TO OSWEGO AND
SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. A RANGE OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH THE SNOW DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW WILL AGAIN ESTABLISH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS...THIS TIME THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL BRING THE
LAKE SNOWS CLOSER TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE COLDER THAN ON LAKE ERIE SO LAKE
SNOWS WILL BE FLUFFIER ACROSS THE TUG HILL...THUS SNOW AMOUNT HAS
BEEN BUMPED UP FOR THE TUG HILL REGION. LAKE SNOW BANDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN AS DRIER BOUNDARY AIRMASS FILTERS
ACROSS THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSES THE LAKE EFFECT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FEELING THAT THE LONG TERM WILL BE
POTENTIALLY VERY BUSY AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN NOW FORECASTS THE NAO
INDEX TO BECOME NEGATIVE. AS INDICATED IN AN EARLY DISCUSSION...THIS
SIGNAL MAY BE RELATED TO RECENT MJO ACTIVITY AND OTHER TROPICAL
FORCING MECHANISMS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO FORCE THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE INTO A SLOWER MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME AND ALSO FORCE
HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FEATURES TO DEVELOP...THUS MANIFESTING THE
NEGATIVE NAO SIGNAL.
ON A DAILY BASIS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REVOLVES AROUND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR EAST COAST CYCLONE THAT WILL AFFECT OUR
CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE CAN TRACE THE MAIN PLAYER
BACK TO A VERY POTENT FEATURE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS. PV ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A COMPLEX
INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS INTERACTION EJECTS THE ENTIRE FEATURE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWS IT TO PHASE WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CANADA.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE TROF THAT GETS DUG OUT OF THIS
COMBINATION BRIEFLY TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE MAIN LOW DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT HITS THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROF
MEANWHILE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS
OUR CWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE AN EASY STORM TO RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT MAINLY
DUE TO THE PROBLEMS THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES MAY HAVE WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE INTERACTION OF THE THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURES THAT PHASE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY. FOR NOW WE HAVE INCREASED OUR POPS FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING AND WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY IS VERY WEAK, WITH
WEAKENING WIND FIELDS AND A STRONG CAP AT ABOUT 5K FT.
AFTER ABOUT 10Z THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING AS A COMPACT BUT POTENT
WEATHER SYSTEM ADVANCES RAPIDLY FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. A WIDE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR AFTER 10Z THEN LIFR AFTER 12Z ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING SITES SUCH AS KJHW. OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AFTER 12Z AND IFR AFTER 14Z AND
REMAIN IFR THROUGH 00Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHERN NEW YORK
INCLUDING KART WHERE HEAVIER SNOW SHIELD SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THAT
AREA AND AT THIS TIME WE ONLY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
BOTH CEILING AND VSBY FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE REGION AND ANOTHER LOW IN THE NORTHERN JET WILL SKIRT OUR CWA
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVERALL.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH INCLUDING KART WHERE THE MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW INDUCED BY THE NORTHERN LOW WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TAKING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY COLDER WNW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT
OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THESE SNOW BANDS.
FINALLY, GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE ALL POINTING TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE WINTER STORM THAT WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON
AIRPORT OPERATIONS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATER THIS EVENING
FOR THE NEARSHORES. WINDS WILL TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ON
THURSDAY AS WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH SWINGS BY. HOWEVER ANOTHER
LOW CROSSING JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL SET UP STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKES WHICH COULD APPROACH GALE CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ001>006-
010-011.
HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
LOZ043>045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LOZ042.
&&
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...TAN
AVIATION...TAN
MARINE...TANHazardous weather outlook, Dec 12, 11:34 AM EST, 4 hours 11 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1134 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007 NYZ012>014-019>021-085-131645- WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- SOUTHERN ERIE- 1134 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER STORM WATCH. COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. AN EAST COAST STORM IS THEN POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR ANOTHER SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR UPDATES ON THIS VERY WINTRY PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ001>008-010-011-131645- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- 1134 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COLD IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. AN EAST COAST STORM IS THEN POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR ANOTHER SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR UPDATES ON THIS VERY WINTRY PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-131645- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 1134 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG EAST COAST LOW MAY FORM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 11:30 AM EST | Winter Storm Watch | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Livingston, Ontario and 1 more | 4 hr |
| Dec 12, 3:45 PM EST | Snow Advisory | BUF | Cayuga, Erie, Genesee, Lewis, Monroe, Niagara and 3 more | 26 hr |
Nearby
Heavy Snow Warnings in New York, 2007Every heavy snow warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.