Flood Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 131540
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1140 AM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...WARM WEATHER MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING...

.A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM
FLOODING ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUTH OF
THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
REMAINING OVER 50 OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS NEARING 60 ON WEDNESDAY.
WHILE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...
THIS WARMTH ALONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAPID MELTING AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM
WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

NYZ010-019-085-140000-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.070313T1800Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1140 AM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL 
  BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS NEAR SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK. 

THE LONG PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS
ALLOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE TO FORM IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS.
SOME MOVEMENT OF THE ICE HAS BEGUN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
ADVENT OF MILDER CONDITIONS...BUT REPORTS FROM THE FIELD INDICATE
THAT THERE STILL WAS ABUNDANT ICE OF VARIOUS THICKNESSES IN THE
CREEKS AS OF EARLY TUESDAY.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
REMAINING OVER 50 OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS NEARING 60 ON WEDNESDAY.
WHILE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...
THIS WARMTH ALONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAPID MELTING AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE BENEFICIAL IN CLEANING OUT THE CREEKS
OF ICE BEFORE THE RAINS MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ICE JAMS ARE NOTORIOUSLY UNPREDICTABLE AND THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME RISK OF PROBLEMS AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON.

PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM
WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

$$

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 131915
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
315 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...WARM WEATHER MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING...

.A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING
ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE
CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWED SOME OF THE ICE
TO MOVE ON AREA CREEKS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND CLIMB IN THE 50S AGAIN WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF ICE MOVEMENT AND JAMS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...
WHICH WILL ADD TO THE THREAT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM
WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

NYZ010-019-085-140400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
315 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL 
  BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS NEAR SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK. 

THE LONG PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS
ALLOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE TO FORM IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS.
SOME MOVEMENT OF THE ICE HAS BEGUN WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY. 

THE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAPID MELTING AND MOVEMENT OF THE
ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY...AND THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

THE WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY
ALLOW MUCH OF THE ICE IN THE CREEKS TO MOVE OUT BEFORE THE RAINS
MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ICE JAMS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY UNPREDICTABLE AND THERE IS A RISK OF PROBLEMS WHENEVER
THE ICE IS MOVING.

PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM
WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

$$

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 131958
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
358 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...WARM WEATHER MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING...

.A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING
ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE
CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWED SOME OF THE ICE
TO MOVE ON AREA CREEKS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND CLIMB IN THE 50S AGAIN WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF ICE MOVEMENT AND JAMS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY... WHICH WILL ADD TO THE THREAT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM
WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

NYZ007-008-140400-
/O.EXB.KBUF.FA.A.0001.070314T1200Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.SM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
358 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS.

* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ON THE BLACK RIVER
  AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. 

WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH RAIN WILL CAUSE THE BLACK RIVER TO
RISE TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. ICE JAMS MAY FORM AND RESULT IN RAPID
CHANGES IN RIVER LEVELS. 

THE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAPID MELTING AND MOVEMENT OF THE
ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
IF HEAVIER AMOUNTS FALL THE FLOODING COULD EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND.

IF YOU LIVE ALONG THE BLACK RIVER REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY TO
TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

$$

NYZ010-019-085-140400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.SM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
358 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL 
  BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS NEAR SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK. 

THE LONG PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS
ALLOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE TO FORM IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS.
SOME MOVEMENT OF THE ICE HAS BEGUN WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAPID MELTING AND MOVEMENT OF THE
ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

THE WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY
ALLOW MUCH OF THE ICE IN THE CREEKS TO MOVE OUT BEFORE THE RAINS
MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ICE JAMS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY UNPREDICTABLE AND THERE IS A RISK OF PROBLEMS
WHENEVER THE ICE IS MOVING.

PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM
WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

$$

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 140257
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1057 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...WARM WEATHER MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING...

.A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING
ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE
CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY.

FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE BLACK RIVER BASIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

NYZ010-019-085-141100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1057 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA AND ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL 
  BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS NEAR SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK. 

TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S AND SOME LOW 60S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON CAUSED SOME RUNOFF FROM CONSIDERABLE SNOWMELT AND
ALLOWED SOME OF THE ICE TO MOVE ON AREA CREEKS. THERE WERE
TEMPORARY ICE JAMS THAT CAUSED SUDDEN RISES AND FALLS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART THERE WERE NO PROPERTY THREATENING PROBLEMS. THE MAIN
REASON FOR THE LACK OF PROBLEMS WAS THE NATURE OF THE ICE. IT WAS
MORE SLUSHY RATHER THAN IN BIG HARD CHUNKS SO JAMMING WAS NOT AS
LIKELY. RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL
SLIGHTLY THEN CLIMB IN THE 50S AGAIN WEDNESDAY. WE MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS FOR ICE JAMS SO THE WATCH WILL
CONTINUE IN EFFECT. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY... WHICH
WILL ADD TO THE THREAT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE SLOW
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

WE WILL STILL BE KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM WEST
SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO AND FOR CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA BUT THESE AREAS TO THIS POINT SEEM TO
HAVE A REDUCED THREAT. THE SUNSET BAY AREA AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK IS STILL IN QUESTION.

PEOPLE WHO HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING
ISSUED.

$$

NYZ007-008-141100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.070314T1200Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1057 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS.

* FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ON THE BLACK RIVER 
  AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. 

WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH RAIN WILL CAUSE THE BLACK RIVER
TO RISE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ICE JAMS MAY FORM AND RESULT IN
RAPID CHANGES IN RIVER LEVELS.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE
RAPID MELTING AND MOVEMENT OF THE ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...LIGHT
RAIN WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. IF HEAVIER AMOUNTS FALL THE FLOODING
COULD EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND.

IF YOU LIVE ALONG THE BLACK RIVER REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY TO
TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

$$

SAGE

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 140751
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...WARM WEATHER COMBINING WITH RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...

.A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAPID SNOWMELT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION. 

THE FLOODING THREAT INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL ICE JAM
FLOODING AS WELL AS MORE WIDESPREAD LOWLAND FLOODING.

NYZ001>006-011>014-020-021-141600-
/O.EXA.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-GENESEE-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
351 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW 
  YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW 
  YORK...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...
  ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...
  NIAGARA...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF GENERAL LOWLAND FLOODING AS
  WELL AS LOCAL ICE JAM FLOODING.

THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST 36 HOURS HAVE PRODUCED
RAPID SNOWMELT AND SWOLLEN MOST AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. ALL HAVE
REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS SO FAR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY REACH ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AND
COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND POSSIBLY OF LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE GREATEST
THREAT WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE HEAVIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON SMALLER CREEKS WHERE
ICE LINGERS.

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR NEAR CREEKS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A
WARNING ISSUED.

$$

NYZ007-008-141600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0001.070314T0751Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
351 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ON THE BLACK RIVER 
  AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. 

WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH RAIN WILL CAUSE THE BLACK RIVER
TO RISE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ICE JAMS MAY FORM AND RESULT IN RAPID
CHANGES IN RIVER LEVELS.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WHICH WILL CAUSE
RAPID MELTING AND MOVEMENT OF THE ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. IF HEAVIER AMOUNTS
FALL THE FLOODING COULD EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND.

IF YOU LIVE ALONG THE BLACK RIVER REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY TO
TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

$$

NYZ010-019-085-141600-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
351 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL 
  BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS NEAR SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK. 

TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S AND SOME LOW 60S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT CAUSED SOME RUNOFF FROM CONSIDERABLE
SNOWMELT AND ALLOWED SOME OF THE ICE TO MOVE ON AREA CREEKS. THERE
WERE TEMPORARY ICE JAMS THAT CAUSED SUDDEN RISES AND FALLS BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THERE WERE NO PROPERTY THREATENING PROBLEMS. THE
MAIN REASON FOR THE LACK OF PROBLEMS WAS THE NATURE OF THE ICE. IT
WAS MORE SLUSHY RATHER THAN IN BIG HARD CHUNKS SO JAMMING WAS NOT
AS LIKELY. RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN VERY WARM BEFORE DROPPING TONIGHT. WE MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE WOODS FOR ICE JAMS SO THE WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN
EFFECT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND BECOME A STEADY RAIN
TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN
INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

WE WILL STILL BE KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM WEST
SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO AND FOR CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA BUT THESE AREAS TO THIS POINT SEEM TO
HAVE A REDUCED THREAT. THE SUNSET BAY AREA AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK IS ALSO A PROBLEM.

PEOPLE WHO HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF ICE JAM FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A
WARNING ISSUED.

$$
SFM

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 140838
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...WARM WEATHER COMBINING WITH RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...

.A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAPID SNOWMELT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION.

THE FLOODING THREAT INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL ICE JAM
FLOODING AS WELL AS MORE WIDESPREAD LOWLAND FLOODING.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-141645-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
438 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
  NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...
  WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF GENERAL LOWLAND FLOODING AS
  WELL AS LOCAL ICE JAM FLOODING.

THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST 36 HOURS HAVE PRODUCED
RAPID SNOWMELT AND SWOLLEN MOST AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. ALL HAVE
REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS SO FAR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY REACH ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AND
COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND POSSIBLY OF LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE GREATEST
THREAT WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE HEAVIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON ANY CREEKS WHERE
ICE LINGERS.

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR NEAR CREEKS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A
WARNING ISSUED.


$$

SFM

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 141642
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1242 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...WARM WEATHER COMBINING WITH RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...

.A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAPID SNOWMELT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION.

THE FLOODING THREAT INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL ICE JAM
FLOODING AS WELL AS MORE WIDESPREAD LOWLAND FLOODING.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-150045-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1242 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
  NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...
  WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF GENERAL LOWLAND FLOODING AS 
  WELL AS LOCAL ICE JAM FLOODING. 


THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST 36 HOURS HAVE PRODUCED
RAPID SNOWMELT AND SWOLLEN MOST AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. MOST HAVE
REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS SO FAR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY REACH ONE INCH AND COMBINE WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND POSSIBLY OF LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS. THE GREATEST
THREAT WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE HEAVIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.

A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BUFFALO CREEK AT
GARDENVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THE ALLEGANY RIVER IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CHECK INDIVIDUAL WARNINGS FOR DETAILS ON THESE
LOCATIONS.

IN ADDITION...ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON ANY CREEKS WHERE
ICE LINGERS.

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR NEAR CREEKS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR A WARNING ISSUED.

$$

JJP

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 142012
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
412 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...WARM WEATHER COMBINING WITH RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...

.A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOWMELT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS
EVENING MAY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION. LATER TONIGHT AFTER AROUND
2 AM IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO
SNOW.

THE MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE GENERAL LOWLAND AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. SOME LOCAL ICE JAM FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE ICE JAM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE BUFFALO
AREA CREEKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME GAGED
CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 PM.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-150415-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
412 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
  NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...
  WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF GENERAL LOWLAND AND SMALL
  STREAM FLOODING. SOME LOCAL ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
  ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST 36 HOURS HAVE PRODUCED
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS ALONG WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SWOLLEN AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.

ANOTHER HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
THIS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT RUNOFF THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. THE GREATEST THREAT WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

THE ICE JAM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS BUT FLOOD
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SEVERAL OF THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS
FOR GENERAL FLOODING. OTHER WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OATKA AND BLACK CREEKS IN THE ROCHESTER AREA AND THE ALLEGHENY
RIVER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. CHECK INDIVIDUAL WARNINGS FOR DETAILS
ON THESE LOCATIONS.

A THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING CONTINUES ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ANY OTHER CREEKS WHERE ICE LINGERS.

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR NEAR CREEKS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR A WARNING ISSUED.

$$

JJP

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 150300
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1100 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-151100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1100 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
  NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...
  WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN MANY CREEKS THAT WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
  DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME OF THE MAJOR STEM RIVERS
  FORECAST TO DO SO THURSDAY. OTHER UNGAGED STREAMS MAY GO ABOVE
  THEIR BANKS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING DURING AND AFTER
  TONIGHTS RAINFALL. SOME LOCAL ICE JAM FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
  EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR NEAR CREEKS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR A WARNING ISSUED.

$$

SAGE

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 150834
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
434 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2007

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-151715-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
434 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2007

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
  NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...
  NIAGARA...NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN ERIE...
  WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON

* MANY CREEKS ARE IN FLOOD THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF THE MAJOR
  STEM RIVERS FORECAST TO DO SO TODAY. OTHER UNGAGED STREAMS MAY
  GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
  MORNING RAINFALL. SOME LOCAL ICE JAM FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE
  EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR NEAR CREEKS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR A WARNING ISSUED.

$$

TMA

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 151714
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
114 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2007

...CREEK AND RIVER FLOODING CONTINUE BUT THE GENERAL COUNTY WIDE FLOOD
THREAT IS OVER...

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-151815-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-070315T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
114 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE GENERAL FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA SO THE COUNTY WIDE FLOOD THREAT IS OVER. HOWEVER, INDIVIDUAL
FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS. IF
YOU LIVE ALONG ONE OF THOSE WATERWAYS BE SURE TO KEEP UP TO DATE
AND THE UPDATED FLOOD STATEMENTS.

$$

SAGE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
239 AM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...

REAL TASTE OF SPRING NEXT TWO DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. WET
PERIOD WED NT AND THURS AS SLOW MOVING FRONT CROSSES REGION WITH
MUCH MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO WX LATER THURS INTO FRI. COLD
WX RETURNS FRI INTO WEEKEND BUT APPEARS LESS HARSH THAN EARLIER
INDICATED. THE DETAILS...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

REGION REMAINS UNDER CLOUDINESS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WEVE ONLY
SQUEEZED OUT SPRINKLES FROM THIS PASSING SHORT WAVE/PSEUDO WARM FRONT.
CLEARING SKIES OVER MICH WILL GET SHUNTED SE FOR AWHILE AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS NW...BUT IT FLATTENS OUT AS DAY WEARS ON SO WELL SEE
SOME LIMITED SUN THIS AFTERNOON...ESP IN WEST. 850 MB TEMPS SOAR TO
+10C IN WEST SO SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE BREAKING 60 OVER MOST
INTERIOR AREAS. BUF SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN SW WITH LAKE COOLING BUT
NOT BEFORE REACHING L-M 50S. SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY RAIN
TODAY...DROPPED POPS BELOW SLGT CHC THRESHOLD ALL AREAS (20 NORTH
COUNTRY).

MODELS CONTINUE TRENDING SLOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOLDING
RIDGE A BIT STRONGER OVER SOUTHEAST...KEEPING WEST SOLIDLY IN WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF WED...WITH NAM EDGING BACKDOOR FRONT INTO
JEFF CO FOR AWHILE THIS EVE BEFORE LIFTING IT UP AGAIN WED MORNING.
AGAIN...SEE LITTLE CHC OF RAIN...WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 OR SO
TONIGHT...EXCEPT 30 JEFF/LEWIS. BIG STORY WILL BE THE WARMTH...WE
MAY STAY ABOVE 50 ALL NIGHT...AND WITH HIGH DEW PTS...THE REMAINING
RIPE SNOWPACK WILL REALLY GO. WED SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY...WITH
MODELS BOTH SHOWING SOME MOISTURE ASSOC WITH SHORT WAVE LIFTING
ACROSS OHIO VALLEY...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR SCATD SHOWERS. TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAYS. QPF THROUGH WED SHOULD BE LIMITED AT BEST SO
RUNOFF SITUATION SHOULD STAY UNDER CONTROL...BUT THERE WILL BE AN
ICE JAM THREAT AND A FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAMS WILL BE ISSUED WITH
THIS PACKAGE FOR LOCAL BUF AREA CREEKS...SO HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

CONFIDENCE THEN REALLY LOWERS IN THE THURS-FRI PERIOD. MODELS AGREE
IN MOVING WAVE ALONG FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH WED EVE AND THEN
DROPPING TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS AREA BY THURS MORNING. THIS WILL
GIVE US ALL A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN...AVERAGING 0.5 INCH OR SO. MAJOR
DIFFERENCES THEN ARISE BTWN MODELS. GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH FRONT
SOUTH THURS AND DRIES US OUT NICELY...WITH MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUING
INTO FRI. NAM ON THE OTHER HAND HANGS FRONT UP OVER PA AND DEVELOPS
A WAVE ALONG IT...WITH A SOAKING RAIN FOR MOST OF OUR REGION DURING
THURS INTO THURS EVE...WHICH EVENTUALLY CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THURS NT BEFORE ENDING FRI MORNING. OUR GOING
FORECAST HAD THIS LATTER SCENARIO...BUT WITH GFS SO MARKEDLY
DIFFERENT...ADJUSTED IT A LITTLE...WITH STILL LIKELY RAIN FOR THURS
AM...TAPERING IT OFF THURS PM AND EVE...ENDING BRIEFLY AS SNOW THURS
NT AND A GENERALLY DRY FRI.

GFS ALSO MARKEDLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH EASTERN TROF FOR WEEKEND...SO
MUCH MILDER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...40-ISH RATHER THAN 20S...BUT
WILL LET DAY SHIFT LOOK AT MORE GUIDANCE BEFORE CHANGING ANY OF THAT
YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS THE LOW WITH SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z-06Z/...

SOME SPRINKLES FROM A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE THESE
EXIT THE AREA...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE INTO THIS
EVENING...WHEN AN APPROACHING COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD TOUCH OFF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINTY OF KART/KGTB.

EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CIGS OF
4-5 KFT WILL BE COMMON EVERYWHERE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WITH CLOUD
BASES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECTED TO RISE TO 10-12 KFT THEREAFTER
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
LIKELY INDUCE SOME WIND SHEAR CONCERNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR SITES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THIS REASON...LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TAFS BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH THE
WIND SHIFT OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY ON LAKE ONTARIO AND DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON LAKE ERIE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY FLAGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SNOWPACK HAS BEEN ERODING RAPIDLY THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
WEST...AND RUNOFF HAS BEEN ORDERLY. GROUND IS BARE NOW OVER MOST OF
LAKE PLAIN FROM BUF TO ROC...BUT STILL PLENTY OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT (2 TO 4 INCHES) IN CREEK/RIVER HEADWATERS.

THE WARMTH OF NEXT 48 HOURS WILL REALLY ACCELERATE THE
RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME WIND AND HIGH DEW PTS...BUT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY QPF UNTIL WED NT...SO LOOKS LIKE GENERAL
FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOW. BUT...MONDAYS ICE SURVEY OF BUF AREA
CREEKS STILL INDICATES A GOOD DEAL OF ICE REMAINING...AND MOVEMENT
WILL INCREASE TODAY. PAST EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT WE DONT REALLY NEED
RAIN TO SET OFF THE JAMS IF IT GETS WARM ENOUGH...AND OUR TRUSTY OLD
TDH (THAWING DEGREE HOUR) TABULATION REACHES THE MAGIC 300 LEVEL
THIS AFTERNOON. SO...WE WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAMS FOR
BUF AREA CREEKS AND ALSO SUNSET BAY AREA AT MOUTH OF CATT CREEK
STARTING AT 2 PM TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE IT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES
ONLY.

WILL HOLD OFF ON REST OF AREA AS ANY JAMS SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED
AND SNOWPACK RUNOFF SHOULD BE HANDLED. COULD SEE A PROBLEM THURS IF
WED NT/THURS AMS QPF IS MORE THAN EXPECTED (RIGHT NOW 0.5 TO 1
INCH) BUT THIS IS TOO FAR OUT FOR A WATCH... SO WILL NOTE IN HWO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ010-019-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SFM
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...APB/SFM
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...SFM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
500 AM EDT MON MAR 12 2007

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-130900-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
500 AM EDT MON MAR 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MILD WEATHER DURING THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD WILL HELP TO MELT
ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK AND LOOSEN UP THE ICE IN AREA CREEKS. COMBINED
WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK...THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-130900-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
500 AM EDT MON MAR 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJR