Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 AM EST SUN FEB 4 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST TEMPS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS...AND ALSO ADJUST POPS/WINDS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
LK EFFECT PLUME SHIFTING BACK NORTH AGAIN INTO ST LAW CTY...AND
WITH LATEST RUN OF THE NAM...MDL CONTINUES SNOW INTO WARNING AREA
INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. SO WILL KEEP WARNING GOING. HAVE GOTTEN
REPORTS IN TO VALIDATE PORTIONS OF WARNING AREA. REFER TO LATEST
ALBPNSBTV FOR FURTHER INFO. WINDS MAINLY SW THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECTING SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADJUSTED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EST SUN FEB 4 2007/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS THE LAKE EFFECT BAND STREAMING
EAST FROM LAKE ONTARIO. VERY IMPRESSIVE 35 TO 40 DBZ RETURNS
MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. BAND OF SNOW EXTENDED
ALL THE WAY TO PLATTSBURGH AT ONE POINT OVERNIGHT...WITH VSBY
DROPPING TO 1/2 MILE 06-07UTC. SNOW BAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WHEN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WINDSHIFT
LINE PUSHES IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF BURLINGTONS FORECAST
AREA. THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IT COULD WAFFLE A BIT BACK AND
FORTH. GIVEN CURRENT SNOWFALL...AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TODAY
WILL LEAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AS IS.

NEXT CONCERN IS WIND CHILL. ALTHOUGH COLD TEMPS TODAY...WIND
SPEEDS DONT INCREASE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
LOW LEVEL WINDS 15-20KTS TODAY INCREASE TO 20-30KTS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WITH INCREASING WINDS AND DECREASING SFC TEMPS
TONIGHT...WILL SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE MINUS TWENTIES WHICH IS
ADVISORY CRITERIA. ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR 1ST PERIOD PER LOCAL
POLICY...SO WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER CONSIDERED BY DAY SHIFT.

OTHERWISE COLD TEMPS TO CONTINUE. PRESSURE GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH
THAT IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE WELL GET A GOOD LARGE SCALE RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...HOWEVER ANY BRIEF CLEARING WILL ALLOW ANY
PROTECTED SPOT TO DECOUPLE AND QUICKLY DROP NIGHTTIME TEMPS.
LOWEST 1000-500 MB THICKNESS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

AFTER LAKE EFFECT SHIFTS SOUTH LATER TONIGHT...POPS GENERALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
DOWN IN NW 500 MB FLOW TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AND COULD
HELP PROVIDE SOME LIFT. HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS IN LOW SINGLE
DIGITS...NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ONCE THE LAKE EFFECT BAND
MOVES AWAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. WE REMAIN SEASONALLY COLD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONE GLIMMER OF HOPE...OOKING AT THE GFS BEYOND DAY
7...COLD VORTEX THAT HAS BEEN LOCKED OVER THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST TO GREENLAND AND HEIGHTS RISE IN THE NORTHEAST. NOT A
SURE THING THAT FAR OUT...BUT THE FIRST INDICATIONS OF A PATTERN
SHIFT AND MODERATING TEMPS SINCE WINTER RETURNED IN MID JANUARY.
STAY TUNED.

AVIATION (08Z-06Z)...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A WELL ESTABLISHED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ONTARIO AT THIS TIME INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
..AND MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWING COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECTING LIFR/VLIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WITH THIS SNOW BAND...MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF MVFR IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 17Z ACROSS VERMONT AND THE
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT ...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z TONIGHT...AS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ029-030-034-087.

&&

SHORT TERM...JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
552 AM EST SUN FEB 4 2007

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-051100-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
552 AM EST SUN FEB 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED TODAY.

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
TONIGHT...WITH VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES EXPECTED TONIGHT. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
THIS WEEK...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ZERO.
VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES ARE ALSO LIKELY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO RELAY SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON
VERMONT.

WGH