Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
225 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY SUNDAY WILL BUILD EAST AND BE CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND
TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED 800 PM EDT SATURDAY.

QUICK UPDATE TO REFRESH WORDING FOR TONIGHT...AND PRIMARILY TO
HIGHLIGHT CANCELLATION REMAINING PORTIONS SVR WATCH 650 FOR FA.
ACTIVE WX DAY W/WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE
HAIL...WITH IN EXCESS OF 25000 CUSTOMERS W/O POWER ATTM.
LATEST ANALYSIS STILL DEPICTS SFC FRONT LYING NORTHWEST OF REGION
ALONG SLV. WHILE SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL
EXPECTED W/FRONTAL PASSG OVERNIGHT...OVERALL THREAT OF SVR HAS
DIMINISHED DUE TO AIRMASS STABILIZATION FROM PRIOR SVR CONVECTION
AND LOSS OF INSOLATION. CONDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MUGGY OVERNIGHT
W/PATCHY FOG IN MANY AREAS. TRUE DRYING OF AIRMASS WILL BE MORE
NOTICEABLE TOMORROW AS PBL DECOUPLES AND FULL MIXING ALLOWS DRIER
AIR TO INFILTRATE THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED 541 PM EDT SATURDAY.

SOME MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LINGER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD...SO WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY AND WILL BE CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...WILL HELP TO PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG TO FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT AS WELL AS IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

ON TUESDAY...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED ZONE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED 1740Z SATURDAY

WL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES...00Z ECMWF...AND 12 GFS FOR
THE EXTENDED PACKAGE. LONG TERM FCST CONCERN WL BE TIMING OF SFC
COLD FRNT WEDS AND DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS
CENTRAL GREAT LKS INTO NE CONUS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL...00Z
GFS ENSEMBLES AND 00Z ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACING SFC
FRNT AND WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON 12Z
WEDS AND PUSHES THE SYSTEM THRU OUR CWA BY 00Z FRI. HOWEVER...FEEL
FROPA TIMING MAY BE DELAYED 3 TO 6 HRS DUE TO SYSTEM PARALLELING
MID/UPPER LVL FLW AND BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. GIVEN...GOOD RIBBON OF 850-500MB RH...SOME SFC CONVERGENCE
WITH FRNT...AND PWS AROUND 1.75 WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS FOR
WEDS INTO THURS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRNT WL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH
LLVL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASING...THEREFORE WL MENTION CHC
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS SUPPORT HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S FOR BOTH WEDS INTO THURS AND RELATIVELY WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDS NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WL SHIFT TOWARD THE NE CONUS AS LLVL CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRNT. THIS WL DROP OUR 85H TEMPS BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND TEMPS WL RETURN BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL LVLS. WL CONT TO MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH COOL POOL ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES..
AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORT MOVING ACRS CWA IN NW CYCLONIC FLW.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED...THEREFORE BEST CHCS
FOR SHOWERS WL BE ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...WL KEEP FCST DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING CAUSING A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL VFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.  CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 4000-5000
FOOT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...SFC FRNT PUSHES INTO SNE BY 00Z
MONDAY AND BEST LLVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF
TAF SITES. MORE LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VLIFR FOR
SLK/MPV FROM 07-11Z. OTHERWISE...WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SHOULD PROVIDE
TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU WEDS...BEFORE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE/COLD FRNT ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR RW/TRW WEDS INTO
THURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/TABER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
423 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007

VTZ003-004-006-007-016-017-252130-
LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-
INCLUDING...MORRISVILLE AND NEWPORT
423 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007

AT 418 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CAMBRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR JOHNSON...WATERVILLE BY 440 PM...NEAR
HYDE PARK BY 450 PM...NEAR EDEN BY 500 PM...NEAR EAST ALBANY...ALBANY
BY 520 PM AND NEAR WEST GLOVER BY 530 PM.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. IN
ADDITION...BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.

TABER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             JEFFERSONVILLE          44.64N 72.83W
08/25/2007  E0.75 INCH       LAMOILLE           VT   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GERALDM

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