Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
153 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE THREE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO
CWFA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CUMULUS FIELD PRESENT IN THIS AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ON MEMORIAL DAY IN A
PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY. DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND LACK OF ANY MAJOR
DISTURBANCES NEARBY WILL PRODUCE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY020 CURRENTLY REPORTS A STEADY SOUTHEAST WIND FROM 10
TO 14 KTS WITH A SWELL AROUND 5 FT. ETA/GFS MSL FIELDS MAINTAINS A
FAIRLY STEADY PGF HOURS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STATUS QUO SWELL
CONDITIONS INTO THIS COMING WEEK. GWW STEADILY DIMINISHES WINDS
AND SWELLS OUT THROUGH 120 HOURS. THIS OVERALL TREND LOOKS ON TRACK.
CURRENT CWF WORDING LOOKS OK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.
&&

.AVIATION...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AROUND THE LOWER RGV
AIRPORTS AS KBRO RADAR INDICATES ISOLD TO SCT PATCHES OF RW/TRW
ACTIVITY ADVECTING OVER KENEDY AND WILLACY COUNTIES. LAPS GUIDANCE
SHOWS FAIRLY DECENT CAPE VALUES FROM 2200 TO 2400 J/KG ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BRO CWA. VSBL SATL SHOWS THAT DIURNAL HEATING IS KICKING IN
AROUND THE REGION HELPING TO DEVELOP BETTER CU/TCU FIELDS. SO
ISOLD/SCT CONV WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MORE LIMITED COVERAGE TODAY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN GENERALLY MVFR/VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH ONLY
PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THE PASSING CONV. THE CONV WILL
THEN WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING WITH
THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. CURRENT TAF WORDING LOOKS OK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  87  75  89 /  10  30  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          73  89  74  91 /  10  30  10   0
HARLINGEN            70  90  72  92 /  10  30  10   0
MCALLEN              73  93  74  94 /  10  30  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      74  94  74  95 /  10  30  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  86  76  87 /  10  20  10   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TOMASELLI/66
MARINE/AVIATION...SPEECE/60
HMT/MESO...ABBOTT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

TXZ248>257-281100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
640 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE THE
MAIN THREATS BUT STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
ALSO...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
657 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     FLASH FLOOD      11 S CONCEPCION         27.23N 98.30W
05/27/2007                   BROOKS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR
            AND RURAL ROADS UNDER WATER.

&&

BC