Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WWUS54 KBRO 272356
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
655 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

TXC215-280030-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-070728T0030Z/
HIDALGO TX-
655 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY NEAR THE CITY OF HIDALGO...

AT 650 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HIDALGO...REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES SOUTH OF SAN JUAN BY 705 PM CDT...
  6 MILES SOUTH OF ALAMO BY 720 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 2612 9835 2595 9828 2601 9804 2621 9812

$$

PHILO

000 
WWUS54 KBRO 280012
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
710 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

TXC215-280020-
/O.CAN.KBRO.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-070728T0030Z/
HIDALGO TX-
710 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HIDALGO COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

AT 710 PM CDT...BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWEST INTO 
MEXICO. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH 
CENTRAL HIDALGO COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 2612 9835 2595 9828 2601 9804 2621 9812

$$

PHILO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
149 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON CONCERNS WILL BE CONCENTRATING ON PLACEMENT
AND POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEYOND 7 PM. A
COASTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BACK BUILDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TROUGH
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
SOUTH END OF THE MID UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. EXPECT THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THEN
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY BROOKS...STARR AND HIDALGO
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE THE THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH COULD TAKE ON A EAST TO
WEST ORIENTATION. WITH THIS MENTION WILL EXTEND THE WATCH UNTIL 10
PM. INITIATION OF THE NAM LOOKED GOOD AND DEPICTED THIS COASTAL
TROUGH BETTER THAN THE GFS. SO WILL BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE NAM
MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN. LOOKING AT THE
MOISTURE CONTENT...MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED PWS AT 2.33 INCHES
WHICH IS NEAR 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS
TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.45 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STAYING ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS
STUCK BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE GULF. CURRENTLY THE LOW SEEMS LIKE
IT IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST AND COULD TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
MOVEMENT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD INCREASE OR MAINTAIN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA FURTHER EVIDENCE OF MAINTAINING
THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN INSTEAD OF
DRYING OUT THE REGION. HAVE RAISED THE POPS TO LIKELY TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES AND HIGH END CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AND
MID CHANCE ON SUNDAY SPREADING THE HIGHER POPS EAST TO WEST EACH
DAY. MONDAY DOES LOOK DRIER AT THIS TIME IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DRIFT FATHER WESTWARD BUT ADDED LOW END POPS. LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DRY UNTIL WE SEE WHAT DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD STAYING BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASE IN POPS...CLOUDS AND
CONTINUED WET SOIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...AT 1PM BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTH WINDS AT 8 KNOTS AND SEAS
AT 4.6 FEET. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR PRESENT LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  88  79  89 /  60  40  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  92 /  60  50  20  30
HARLINGEN            77  92  77  92 /  60  50  20  30
MCALLEN              77  93  77  93 /  60  50  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  93  76  94 /  40  50  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  88  82  88 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>257.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

68/59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
430 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

TXZ248>257-281100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
430 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT TONIGHT...
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. AND...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL
BEACHES DUE TO WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEKEND...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK...WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AND ROADS. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED FLASH FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BROWNSVILLE.

TOMASELLI