Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 042231
FFSBRO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
530 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

TXC489-042245-
WILLACY TX-
530 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY...

AT 526 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED
AREA.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY 
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN 
BROWNSVILLE.

LAT...LON 2646 9801 2636 9769 2659 9765 2661 9797

$$

TOMASELLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
149 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREAS MENTIONED IN THE PRIOR DISCUSSION. HOWEVER
NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF OUR CWA AND ARE NOW
ENTERING ZAPATA COUNTY. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THE FLASH
FLOOD WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 0100 AM THURSDAY MORNING. THE COASTAL
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND
THE GFS. THE GFS MODEL TRACKS THE TEXAS LOW TOWARD THE NORTH
NORTHEAST WHILE THE NAM TRACKS THE LOW NORTHWESTWARD. THE MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW FORECASTED BY THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A VORTEX MAX
CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE CWA OVER US FOR THIS EVENING. THE
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGE TRENDS SHOW SOME EVIDENCE THAT THIS VORTEX
COULD ENTER OUR CWA FROM THE WEST LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND PERSIST
THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THOUGH. OTHERWISE...VFR TO
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE DUE 20
TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE CHOP
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...AT 1 PM BUOY20 INDICATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 5 FEET WITH A 7 SECOND PERIOD. MAIN
MARINE CONCERN WILL AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH
PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THE THUNDERSTORMS COUPLED WITH THE LOWER
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THIS GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY AS THE AREA OF LOWER AND
HIGHER PRESSURE SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
WORDING WILL BE ADDED FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND CONTINUE FOR
FARTHER OFFSHORE AREAS WITH THE LAGUNA MADRE TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW THESE HIGHER LEVELS. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
BY FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  89  79  91 /  60  50  30  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  91  78  93 /  60  50  30  20
HARLINGEN            76  91  76  94 /  60  50  30  20
MCALLEN              76  91  77  95 /  60  40  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  90  77  94 /  60  40  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  86  80  88 /  60  50  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ248>257.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

53/59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
442 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

TXZ248>257-050945-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
442 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE URGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

54

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
307 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ZAPATA                  26.89N 99.26W
07/04/2007                   ZAPATA             TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SOME STREET FLOODING INTO A FEW HOMES.

0302 PM     FLASH FLOOD      N ZAPATA                26.89N 99.26W
07/04/2007                   ZAPATA             TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 16 NORTH OF ZAPATA CITY 1 INCH DEEP.

0302 PM     FLASH FLOOD      15 WNW ZAPATA           26.98N 99.49W
07/04/2007                   XXX                XX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            2 TO 3 INCHES OVER HIGHWAY 83 NORTHWEST OF ZAPATA BEYOND
            CITY OF SAN INGANICO.

&&

TABBOTT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
343 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

TXZ251-254-256-042145-
INLAND WILLACY TX-COASTAL WILLACY TX-KENEDY TX-
343 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS ARE MOVING OVER COASTAL
WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINS ARE MOVING OVER COASTAL WILLACY AND KENEDY
COUNTIES...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 77. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO FORMING OVER STARR AND BROOKS COUNTIES...WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF ONE AND A HALF INCHES PER HOUR FROM THESE STORMS.
FLASH FLOODING OVER ALL OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS POSSIBLE...AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. MARINERS HAVE BEEN WARNED OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING OVER THE WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTY PORTIONS
OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 35
KNOTS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

REMEMBER...IF YOU APPROACH WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH WHILE DRIVING
YOUR VEHICLE TONIGHT...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

PHILO