Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
145 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH A WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR.  BRO SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED
A PRECIP WATER OF 2.23 AND A K-INDEX OF 37.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING. WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS MOST
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HAS PRETTY HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.  WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  LATEST GFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE HAS BECOME LESS LIKELY TO DECREASE. SEABREEZE SHOULD HAVE
NO TROUBLE FORMING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
TIMING HAS THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...AT NOON BUOY 20 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 14 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 2 FEET WITH A 6 SECOND PERIOD. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MARINE
AREAS THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MARINE AREAS AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT THE
REGIONAL AIRPORTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT TIMES FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MVFR TO TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGIONAL AERODROMES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  88  79  91 /  20  20  20  50
BROWNSVILLE          76  90  78  91 /  20  20  20  50
HARLINGEN            73  91  76  92 /  20  20  20  50
MCALLEN              75  90  76  94 /  20  30  30  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  90  75  94 /  30  40  30  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  87  80  91 /  10  10  10  40
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
531 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

TXZ248>257-231115-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
531 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND HIGHWAYS. WHILE ANY LOCATION
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS COULD EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN THE COUNTIES
OF HIDALGO...STARR...ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE
AREAS OF CONCENTRATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
TUESDAY.

BUILDING SEAS LATE MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD INCREASE THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREAS BEACHES TO A HIGH RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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