Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 251701
FFSBRO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

TXC261-251730-
KENEDY TX-
1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL KENEDY COUNTY...

AT NOON CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED
AREA.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 2702 9778 2702 9748 2728 9744 2729 9778

$$

TOMASELLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
915 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE MCS NOW AFFECTING THE EWX AND CRP CWAS CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD SPREADING THE HEAVIER CONV MORE EASTWARDS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TX COASTLINE.  MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH...A SMALL
CLUSTER OF CONV PERSISTS ABOUT 90 NM SSW OF BRO WITH LITTLE
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT.  THIS MORNINGS BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH A PWAT NEAR 1.8
INCHES AND A CAPE NEAR 3840 J/KG.  THE FIRST FEW VSBL SATL IMAGES
SHOW THE SKIES OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS GENERALLY STAYING MOSTLY
CLEAR.  BUT BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE DAYTIME
HEATING HELP REBUILD THE CU DECKS LATER TODAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY
HELP REGENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE NAM/GFS AND RUC GUIDANCE SHOW SOME FORM
OF 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVECTING OVER CENTRAL TX TODAY HELPING
TO ENHANCE UVV OVER THE REGION. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED ON
THE MCS FORMATION AND MOVEMENT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE KEEP GOOD POPS IN PLACE FOR THE SHORT TERM AND FEEL
THAT IT WILL ONLY BE A MATTER OF TIME UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HEATING
HELPS FIRE OFF ADDITIONAL CONV. THE SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT
THE OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TODAY WITH NO SLGT RISK
INDICATED. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES INDICATE
THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM.
DESPITE THE PATCHY HEAVIER RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING...THE LIMITED COVERAGE LATER TODAY HAS ALLOWED PLENTY
OF RUNOFF TO OCCUR.  ALSO...FFG FROM EARLY THIS MORNING WAS PRETTY
HIGH FOR THE ENTIRE BRO CWA AND BELIEVE THAT THE SOIL AROUND THE
REGION CAN HANDLE SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
SATURATION OCCURS. SO WILL NOT POST A FFA AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
RE-EXAMINE THIS ISSUE LATER TODAY. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POPS AND TEMPS...BUT OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL WORDING OF THE ZFP
LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 16 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 6 FEET WITH A
PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 08 CDT/13 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IF THE UNFAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
PERSIST. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TO
AIRPORT OPERATIONS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR PILOTS TONIGHT...WITH A THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED SATURDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ170-175 THROUGH 12Z.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
MARINE/AVIATION...66
MESO...ABBOTT

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1105 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

TXZ248>257-261100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1105 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT
IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
BROOKS...CAMERON...WILLACY... HIDALGO...AND KENEDY COUNTIES UNTIL 7
PM FRIDAY EVENING. ALSO...THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FROM 20 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE DUE TO ROUGH
SEAS. AND...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT IF THE ROUGH SEAS PERSIST. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES WOULD LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE ROUGH
SEAS. AND...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

TOMASELLI/SPEECE