Flash Flood Warning 118, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
300 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...DAYTIME HEATING HAS HELPED FIRE OFF SOME ISOLD CONV IN
A POOL OF HIGHER CAPE VALUES POOLED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE BRO CWA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF
THE AFTERNOON HEATING. AFTER THIS...500 MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT IN TAKING THE INVERTED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STEADILY WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TX COASTLINE
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE LATEST TWOAT FROM NHC
INDICATING THE FORMATION OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF.  WITH THE INVERTED 500 MB TROUGH MOVING IN FIRST
AND THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY FOLLOWING...UVV AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WILL STEADILY INCREASE LATE TOMORROW INTO WED RESULTING IN
INCREASING POPS AND BETTER CHCS FOR HVY RAIN. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS POOLED OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND THE INLAND
AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES BEGINNING TO
DROP ON FRI AND THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PUSHES FURTHER
INLAND. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING OF THE ADVENT OF HIGHER POPS IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL STICK
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THIS OVERALL TREND.  THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE QPF
AMOUNTS.  THE LATEST 5 DAY QPF GRAPHIC FROM HPC PLACES THE BEST QPF
AMOUNTS NEAR THE CRP AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR THE BRO CWA
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF WHERE 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SAT MORNING. FINAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDANT ON THE OVERALL TRACK OF THIS GULF OF MEX FEATURE...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WEEK. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN A BIT AS THE GULF FEATURE GETS CLOSER
AND THE POPS/CLD COVER BEGIN INCREASING.  MAV AND MET TEMP GUIDANCE
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR BOTH HRL AND BRO. HOWEVER...MAV APPEARS A BIT
TOO WARM FOR MFE SHOWING A 100 DEGREE READING FOR WED WITH THE
BETTER RAIN CHCS.  THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC AND HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE COOLER MET TEMPS HERE.  AFTER THIS GULF FEATURE CLEARS
OUT TO THE WEST...THE 500 MB RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE GULF
COAST DRYING OUT THE ATMS ON FRI AND AFTERWARDS.  ANY CONV TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL MAINTAIN SOME 20%
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY.  THICKNESSES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
TOWARES THIS COMING WEEKEND WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM ONCE
AGAIN.  SO WILL GO WITH OVERALL TEMPS BACK AGAIN TO ABOVE CLIMO
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.  FINALLY...NEWLY FORMED T.D. FOUR IS TRACKING
WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE WIDNWARD ISLANDS.  THE
LATEST FORECASTA TRACK FROM NHC PLACES THIS SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST
CARIB CEA SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AROUND SAT MORNING.  RESIDENTS
AND MARINERS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEED TO PLACE CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING FEATURE.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST DURING THE DAY...WITH CALM
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...AT 1PM BUOY020 REPORTED NORTH WINDS AT 6KTS AND SEAS
1 FOOT. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
REGION LATE TOMORROW...WITH WINDS INCREASING STARTING TOMORROW
MORNING. SEAS WILL RISE QUICKLY...REACHING 6 FEET AT THE BUOY LATE
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WAVE WILL MAKE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
THAT WILL BRING MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WILL END PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  94  79  91 /  10  20  50  60
BROWNSVILLE          77  96  77  93 /  10  20  50  60
HARLINGEN            76  96  77  93 /  10  20  50  60
MCALLEN              76  98  77  95 /  20  10  40  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      76 102  77  95 /  20  10  20  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  91  80  89 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
500 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

TXZ248>257-141100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
500 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TO BEAT THE HEAT OUTSIDE...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER
AND OTHER NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES...WEAR LOOSE FITTING AND LIGHT
COLORED CLOTHING...AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE. NO OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE PUMPS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLOODING OF STREETS AND
LOW LYING AREAS MAY BE PRODUCED BY ANY OF THE SLOWER MOVING STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. AND...A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
POSSIBLE AT THE LOCAL BEACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TOMASELLI