Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
149 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES AND THE
RESULTANT FLASH FLOODING WATCH. IN THE SHORT TERM...SYNOPTIC
PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW
JUST EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY. THE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO
MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH THE BULK THE HEAVIEST
CONVECTION TO REMAIN EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAINING UNFAVORABLE. TODAY/S
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY WITH
THE REST OF THE CWA TO SEE A RAPID INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE NOW ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE WESTERN LOW. UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LI/S AND CAPE VALUES
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE HELPING THE CONVECTION INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER THE POPS AREAWIDE BUT IT IS HARD TO
BELIEVE WITH PWS TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AND THE MID LEVEL LOW TO REMAIN WITHIN REASONABLE DISTANCE. WITH
THIS SAID WILL KEEP POPS HIGHER THEN MODEL GUIDANCE UNTIL WE SEE A
MORE ESTABLISHED TREND. FOR THE FF WATCH WILL KEEP IT IN EFFECT
THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING AND LET LATER SHIFTS REISSUE IF
WARRANTED. HIGHER POPS AND THE WET GROUND CONDITIONS MEAN LOWER
TEMPERATURES SO WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE
CURRENT TREND FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
STILL IN PLAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANGES IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERAL VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...AT 1PM BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 4.6 FEET. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR PRESENT
LEVELS THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  86  78  89 /  30  60  40  40
BROWNSVILLE          77  90  78  91 /  30  60  40  40
HARLINGEN            76  89  77  91 /  30  60  40  40
MCALLEN              76  92  77  94 /  70  60  40  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  92  78  94 /  70  60  40  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  85  80  88 /  30  60  40  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>257.

GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

68...MARINE/AVIATION
59...SYNOPTIC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
454 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

TXZ248>257-271100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
454 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN THE FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...ROADS
AND LOW LYING AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN THE FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...ROADS
AND LOW LYING AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY OVER
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MARTIN