Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
715 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...MINOR IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF UPPER LOW OVER FOUR
CORNERS PRODUCING TSTMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO ENTER WRN CWA. ALTHOUGH BEST DYNAMICS FOR SVR CONVECTION
REMAIN NW OF CWA...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACEWITH LI OF -6
THROUGH 06Z TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SVR. WILL UPDATE OVERNIGHT PERIODS
TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS AND TSTMS OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK.
&&

.MARINE...SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...ALLOWING ADVISORIES
TO BE DROPPED...AND LOWER WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN BE USHERED IN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL
LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR BKN TO OVC CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN INVERSION AT AROUND 3000 FT CREATING DECKS
RIGHT AT THE BOUNDARY HEIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO ADVECT OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AS CONVECTION TO THE WEST ERUPTS AGAIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON MAY 7
2007...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE
TO AMPLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.  WINDS WILL BE MODERATE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BRO SOUNDING THIS MORNING
SHOWED A PRECIP WATER OF 1.08 AND A K-INDEX OF -2.  A DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY CAUSING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

55/54/MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
728 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXZ248>257-081200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
728 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS A
MINOR SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS COMBINES WITH THE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...STARR AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. THERE IS
ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK ACROSS THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1122 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

TXZ248-080530-
ZAPATA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ZAPATA
1122 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING NORTHERN ZAPATA COUNTY...

AT 1115 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING EAST INTO NORTHERN ZAPATA
COUNTY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 50 MILES PER
HOUR SHOULD CONTINUE IN NORTHERN ZAPATA COUNTY THROUGH THE NEXT
HOUR. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN IN MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
COUNTY.

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