Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 030017
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
616 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

COC123-030026-
/O.CAN.KBOU.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-070703T0030Z/
WELD CO-
616 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL WELD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 4063 10407 4053 10401 4053 10359 4083 10358

$$
BAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
330 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2007

.SHORT TERM...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS...
ALONG A BOUTNDARY BETWEEN SOMEWHAT MOISTER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER
AIR OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.  TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE QUITE
WARM...IN THE VICINITY OF +18 C...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
CONVECTION CAPPED.  IF ANY SHOWERS DO BREAK THE CAP...WINDS ALOFT
ARE WEAK...BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SHOWERS
ORGANIZED.  SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER THE
HEATING OF THE DAY SUBSIDES.

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING A SURFACE FRONT DROPPING INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
RAPIDLY IN THE MORNING...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S ON THE PLAINS
BY LUNCHTIME.  BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLING TEMPERATURES AT LOW LEVELS
WILL INITIALLY STABILIZE THE AIRMASS.  LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE.
MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE LACKING INITIALLY...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SEE ANY REAL THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN OR SEVERE STORMS UNTIL POSSIBLY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF COLORADO WILL MOVE INTO THE CWFA TUESDAY AFTN.  BY
TUESDAY EVENING...QG OMEGA IS DOWNSWARD AOA 700 MB...BUT INCRG
UPSLOPE/MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD ACT AS A GOOD COUNTER
BALANCE.  INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS FM THE WARF INDICATE CAPE VALUES FM
1700-2500 J/KG AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH VERY MINIMAL CIN.  BEST
POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE
TUESDAY EVENING.  GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO ONE
INCH AT THAT TIME.  AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE ISOLD SVR...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING TSTMS...PROBABLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.  FOR
NOW I INCREASE POPS IN THOSE AREAS IN THE 20-30% RANGE.  ON
WEDNESDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED.  FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS CAPES
BUT STILL AROUND AT DENVER...WITH DCRS POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST.  WILL
KEEP GRIDS AS IS WITH SCT POPS AGAIN NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  TREND
FOR HOTTER AND DRIER STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER THE WRN U.S.  MAIN MSTR TO PROGGED TO GET
SHIFTED S WITH A NNELY FLOW OVR CO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  BY THE
WEEKEND...SLGT CHC POPS MNLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SLGT BETTER
MSTR UNDER THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA IN THE AFTN AND EVENING.  ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS ANTICIPATED BEYOND DAY 4.

&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION WEATHER IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WELL EAST OF KDEN IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WED.  A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS KDEN AFTER
18Z WED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KDRBY/COOPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1107 AM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

COZ030>051-031200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1107 AM MDT MON JUL 02 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...PRIMARILY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND THE PALMER
DIVIDE.  ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.  MORE MOISTURE AND COOLER READINGS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  BY FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND ADJACENT PLAINS.   THE FIRE DANGER
WILL LIKELY WORSEN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DANKERS/COOPER