Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 122249
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
449 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

COC039-122315-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-070612T2315Z/
ELBERT CO-
449 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTY...

AT 449 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF SIMLA...OR ABOUT 27 MILES WEST OF
LIMON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SIMLA...MATHESON AND AGATE.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STRONG
BUILDING. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STAY INSIDE AWAY
FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3913 10436 3914 10396 3948 10391 3947 10439

$$

RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
230 PM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW CIRCUATION OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CO AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST. VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER CWA
WITH PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE...WHILE NEARING
1.50 OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE
ALREADY IN EFFECT ACROSS ZNS 48..50>51 AND THIS LOOKS FINE WITH NEW
BATCH OF STORMS AND DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS YUMA AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. FURTHER WEST...NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND THIS WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE
URBAN CORRIDOR THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. TRAINING ECHOES MAY
ALSO LEAD TO FURTHER FLOODING POTENTIAL IF OCCURS IN URBAN AREAS.
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER ENTIRE AREA THRU THIS EVENING. RADUAL
DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE AND DRIER AIR GETS
ENTRAINED FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ON THE PLAINS
WED AFTN WHILE MAYBE A FEW STORMS IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS WITH A BIT
OF MSTR AND LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW.

.LONG TERM...UPR LOW WL CONTINUE TO MOV EASTWARD INTO CNTRL KS WED
EVE.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WL TRAIL THE LOW OVR WRN KS. SOME SCT TSTMS
PSBL ON THE FAR ERN PLAINS INVOF THIS FEATURE IN THE EVENING...BUT
BY MIDNIGHT ALL PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END.  FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK...A STG RDG OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM AZ WL BLD ACRS THE WRN
HALF OF THE STATE.  HEIGHTS AT H5 PROGGED TO RISE TO OVR 590 DM BY
FRIDAY AND SAT.  SUCH A PTRN WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS RISING INTO THE 90S
ACRS THE PLAINS AND FNT RANGE.  LTL IF ANY MSTR EVIDENT...SO WL RMV
ALL POPS THURS AND FRIDAY.  WL KEEP SAT GOING AS A LTL MSTR MAY
SNEAK INTO THE RDG FM NEW MEXICO.

REPREVE FROM THE VRY WARM TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WK AS A DP TROF OVR WRN CANADA SINKS SWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKY MTN
STATES.  GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTANT BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA MONDAY AFTN.  SFC CDFNT WL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF TEMPS
ON THE PLAINS AS H7 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE 3-5 DEGREE
RANGE.  WL COOL OFF TEMPS SOME FOR MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS FOR TUES.  WL ALSO ADD SOME POPS TO THE LATTER PERIODS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BTWN 21-23Z
ACROSS LOCAL AIRPORTS. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR CAT IN
SHOWERS...IMVPOVING AFT 03Z THIS EVENING. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH
SHOWERS WITH SPEEDS UP TO 35KT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12Z WED
FOR ZONES 48..50>51.

&&

SWE/046

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1050 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

COZ030>051-131200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1050 AM MDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER
FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2
INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH HAIL
UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE INCH IN LESS THAN
AN HOUR. THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL SO ONLY SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED
WITH THE STORMS.

THE STORMS WILL END LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AND BRINGS DRIER AIR
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS OF
COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS WILL
ALSO BE APPRECIATED.

SWE/046