Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 142115
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
313 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

COC069-142130-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-070514T2130Z/
LARIMER CO-
313 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL LARIMER COUNTY...

AT 313 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF BUCKHORN MOUNTAIN...OR ABOUT
11 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT COLLINS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WELLINGTON...TIMNATH...TEDS PLACE...POUDRE PARK...MISHOWAKA...
LIVERMORE...BUCKHORN MOUNTAIN...BELLVUE AND FORT COLLINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INTO A STURDY SHELTER 
SUCH AS A HOUSE OR BUILDING. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS 
ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.  

LAT...LON 4078 10538 4049 10551 4049 10496 4089 10496

$$
BAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
235 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO SERN WYOMING
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST OF NERN CO BEFORE 18Z.
THIS FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS ACROSS NERN CO WITH READINGS 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.  TEMPS COULD EVEN BE COOLER IF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.  AS FAR AS PCPN WITH FNTL PASSAGE OCCURRING THIS
MORNING THIS COULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS THRU MOST OF AFTN HOURS WITH BEST CHC OF TSTMS INITIALLY IN
THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.  BY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING QG FIELDS
SHOW SOME MID LEVEL ASCENT MOVING ACROSS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO 700
MB.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LATEST NAM HAS CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTN OVER
NERN CO WHICH SEEMS OVERDONE AS IT HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  CURRENT DEWPOINTS BEHIND COLD FNT ARE ONLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S SO EXPECT CAPES WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT NAM
IS SHOWING WITH VALUES PROBABLY CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG.  AT THIS POINT
THREAT FOR SVR WX APPEARS ON THE LOW SIDE BUT COULD STILL SEE AN
ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO WITH MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.  FOR
TONIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS QG ASCENT WEAKENS ALONG WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW.

.LONG TERM...SFC CDFNT WILL HAVE ALREADY PASSED THRU THE PLAINS LONG
BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...LEAVING A COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS IN ITS
WAKE.  A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS WL BE PSBL IN THE MRNG...OTWS IT
WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY IN THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.  HWVR...IT WL BE
FAR TOO STBL AND COOL FOR ANYTHING ON THE PLAINS.  WL KEEP CURRENT
FCST TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REASSERT ITSELF OVER
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER WEDNESDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY.
SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DUE TO QUITE A BIT OF MID LVL MSTR AND INSTABILITY.  MID LVLS WL DRY
OUT LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT GFS KEEPS A SUBSTANTIAL BLOB OF MSTR
TRAPPED UNDER THE RDG OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE.  WL TRIM BACK POPS ON THE PLAINS WHERE LTL IF ANY CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING FCST.  OTWS...FEW CHANGES MADE TO DAY S
4 THROUGH 7.  TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO ABV NRML READINGS BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

RPK/046

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1057 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

COZ030>051-151200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1057 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY.  FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL THE
FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

D-L/RJK