Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 062124
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
325 PM MDT THU SEP 6 2007

COC073-062135-
/O.CAN.KBOU.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-070906T2215Z/
LINCOLN CO-
325 PM MDT THU SEP 6 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS EXITED THE AREA.

LAT...LON 3933 10330 3911 10334 3910 10316 3935 10316

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
245 AM MDT THU SEP 6 2007

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AREA OF QG
ASCENT IS FCST TO MOVE OUT OF NERN CO BY 21Z WITH FAIRLY STG QG
DESCENT OVER NRN CO THEREAFTER.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW CONSIDERABLE
MID LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO THE MTNS BY 18Z AND ACROSS NERN CO
DURING THE AFTN HOURS.  PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY END IN THE MTNS THIS
MORNING BUT WILL LINGER OVER THE NERN PLAINS THRU THE AFTN HOURS
BEFORE ENDING BY 00Z OR SO.  COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE NERN PLAINS THIS AFTN IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS AS MID LEVEL
COLD POCKET MOVES ACROSS.  WITH LOWERING WET BULB ZEROS AND
INCREASING MID LVL FLOW AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
SVR WITH MARGINAL LARGE HAIL AND STG WINDS PSBL.  HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTN WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WITH HIGHS OVER THE NERN PLAINS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING PCPN.  FOR TONIGHT ANY LINGERING
PCPN SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING OVER THE NERN PLAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING DOWN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THEY HAVE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE SPEEDS ARE
FAIRLY WEAK FRIDAY BUT INCREASE INTO THE 70-85 KNOT RANGE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BIT A JET MAXIMUM MOVES IN.  BENIGN SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT STRONGER
UPWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  BOTH MODELS HAVE A DECENT COLD
FRONT AND AN UPSLOPE SURGE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY FROM
03Z TO 09Z.  MOISTURE IS PRETTY SPARSE FOR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
INTO MID DAY SATURDAY.  THEN IT IS PROGGED TO INCREASE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS.  BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE PLAINS
AND FOOTHILLS MOISTENING UP BEHIND THE UPSLOPE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S F
FRIDAY...AND LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S F ON SATURDAY.  THESE VALUES
INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.55 TO 0.70 INCH RANGE FRIDAY
...AND THE 0.30 TO 0.60 INCH RANGE SATURDAY.  THERE IS A MINIMAL
THETA-E AXIS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO LATE FRIDAY...OTHERWISE ITS
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST AREA.   THERE IS ALMOST NO CAPE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE QPF GRIDS HAVE NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.  THERE IS A
BIT OVER THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WILL LEAVE POPS
OUT...AS CURRENT GRIDS DO...THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL
PUT 10%S IN OVER ALL THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  FOR
TEMPERATURES...FRIDAYS HIGHS WILL BE 0.5 TO 2.0 C COOLER THAN
TODAYS.  SATURDAYS READINGS WARM UP 2.0 TO 4.0 C OVER FRIDAYS
HIGHS.  FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BOTH MODELS
SHOW SUNDAY TO BE COOLER.  WILL ALSO MAKE SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO
THE LATER DAYS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAY SEE SOME ISOLD TSTMS DVLP BY MID TO LATE AFTN MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AIRPORT.  OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RPK/RJK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1114 AM MDT THU SEP 06 2007

COZ030>051-071200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1114 AM MDT THU SEP 06 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE MOVING OVER THE STATE FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY.  ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS...BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MINIMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COOLER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DANKERS/GIMMESTAD