Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
230 PM MDT WED AUG 22 2007

.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN A
WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE ITS WAY FM SRN ID AND ACRS SRN WY
THIS EVENING.  BOTH THE GFS/WARF SHOW WEAK UPWARD OMEGA AT THE SFC
AND ALF THIS EVENING...AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS.  AMS STABLIZED
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTN...FOLLOWING THE TSTMS THIS MORNING.  AS A RESULT
THE AMS HAS BEEN SLOW TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE AGAIN. SFC BASED CAPE
FM LAPS ANALYSIS THIS AFTN STILL INDICATED 1000-1500 J/KG ALG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH NEARLY 2000 J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.  STILL
SOME CIN AS WELL SO TSTMS MAY NOT INCRS UNTIL THE UPPER TROF MOVES
CLOSER TO THE CWFA.  WILL KEEP SCT POPS IN THE FCST THIS EVENING FOR
MOST AREAS...DIMINISHING LATEST OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS.  ANOTHER
FRONTAL SURGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH NERN CO AROUND 15Z...WITH AN
EVEN COOLER AMS IN PLACE THU AFTN. THERE IS HOWEVER ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE ACRSS THE REGION IN THE AFTN.  PW VALUES
RMN HIGH...GENERALLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN THE AFTN.  CAPES RANGE FM
1300-2100 J/KG ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR/ADJACENT PLAINS.  SOME CIN
AS WELL...BUT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF MAY RESOLVE
THIS.  WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THESE TWO TROFS WILL HOLD ON
TO SOME ISOLD POPS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSTMS LATE THURSDAY AFTN GOING INTO THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE RGN THU
NITE/EARLY FRI WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ON THU NITE WITH A
MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW IN PLACE. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOWING QPF AND
LIKELY POPS THU NITE WITH PW VALUES OVER AN INCH. HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP TO HIGH SCATTERED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL AN ISOLD SEVERE
STORM POSSIBLE THU EVENING WITH STRONG 40KT MID LVL FLOW. EXPECT A
DRYING/WARMING TREND LATE FRI-SAT AS THE TROF AXIS PUSHES EAST AND
CO DRIES OUT FROM W-E. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER FAR ERN
CO ON SAT AS LOW LVL MSTR STILL IN PLACE. ON SUNDAY...LOW LVL MSTR
WILL HAVE FLUSHED EAST OF COLORADO BUT THEN LOOKING AT A RETURN FLOW
OF MSTR BACK INTO THE MTNS BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS MSTR IS FROM
HURRICANE DEAN AS MSTR GETS STEERED AROUND THE UPR HIGH. THIS MSTR
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME REINFORCING UPSLOPE LOW LVL FLOW AS WELL. MAIN
CHANGE FOR LATER PERIODS IS TO ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THE OUT
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

COOPER/ENTREKIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1017 AM MDT WED AUG 22 2007

COZ030>051-231200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1017 AM MDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 76 CORRIDOR.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN...UP TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
GREATEST EAST OF A LINE FROM KIOWA TO FORT MORGAN TO STERLING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ALSO
POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

FMC/SWE