Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 152200
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
357 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

COC039-152215-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0140.000000T0000Z-070815T2215Z/
ELBERT CO-
357 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTY...

AT 357 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FONDIS...OR ABOUT
31 MILES WEST OF LIMON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MATHESON.

SPOTTERS TO THE NORTH OF CALHAN HAVE BEEN REPORTING ONE-QUARTER INCH 
TO ONE-HALF INCH HAIL ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. 
THE POLICE CHIEF IN SIMLA HAS ALSO REPORTED SOME ROTATION WITHIN THE 
THUNDERSTORM...BUT NO FUNNEL CLOUDS THROUGH 355 PM.  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE IN DANGER OF BEING STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER
AWAY FROM CREEK BEDS AND OTHER FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. REMEMBER...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 58 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

LAT...LON 3927 10446 3916 10446 3913 10393 3938 10390

$$

DANKERS

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 152216
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
415 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

COC039-152225-
/O.EXP.KBOU.SV.W.0140.000000T0000Z-070815T2215Z/
ELBERT CO-
415 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTY EXPIRED
AT 415 PM MDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS EXITED THE AREA. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE OVER 
CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM. 

LAT...LON 3927 10446 3916 10446 3913 10393 3938 10390

$$

DANKERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
305 PM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

.SHORT TERM...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AND QG ASCENT MOVING ACROSS AREA
AT PRESENT. SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...MOVING ONTO ADJACENT PLAINS. SHOULD SEE STORMS SPREAD
FURTHER EAST AS TROUGH MOVES ONTO PLAINS. GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING...CURRENTLY 1.34 INCHES AT KBOU
AND 1.23 INCHES AT KFCL. HEAVY RAIN A GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH THE
STORMS. STORMS MOVING ALONG AS STORM MOTION AVERAGING 15KTS. LAPSE
ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG FRONT RANGE...COULD
SEE SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WEAK SHEAR PROFILE SHOULD
HINDER MOST STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE...THOUGH A FEW MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. STORMS SHOULD END MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AS
TROUGH HEADS INTO PLAINS AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WILL DROP ALL
POPS ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST ZONES.
MODELS STILL SHOW WEAK SURGE MOVING ACROSS PLAINS AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY...NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER RUNS. COULD STILL SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE WEAK
UPSLOPE. BY AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING ACROSS
AREA WITH WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR OVER AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO POINT THIS OUT...WITH 1.13 INCHES ALONG FRONT RANGE.
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM. SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. ACROSS
PLAINS...MAY STILL BE ENOUGH CIN AROUND TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CIN WILL BE GONE BY 00Z.
WILL HANG ON TO THE CURRENT LOW POPS. TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS
PROGS SHOW HIGHS ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES CELSIUS COOLER FROM TODAYS
READINGS. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS ACROSS PLAINS
AS A RESULT. CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS ALREADY POINT THIS OUT...WILL
WILL NOT CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME
A BIT SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN PTN OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE
EASTERLY WAVE CREEPS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT/SUN. FOR
FRI-SAT...LOOKS LIKE THE USUAL DIURNAL AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS MSTR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER HI.
BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING
INLAND ACROSS THE PAC NW. AS THE PAC NW TROF PUSHES INLAND IT WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD A DRIER AND STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
ROCKY MTN RGN FOR THE MON-WED TIME FRAME WITH TUE-WED BEING THE
DRIEST DAYS. HARD TO SAY IF IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT OFF CONVECTION
BUT WILL STILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THE MTNS AND DRY ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS THRU THE PRD.

.AVIATION...ISOLATED STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE AIRPORT THROUGH
04Z WITH HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP
TO MVFR IF A STRONGER STORM MOVES OVER THE AIRPORT...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AIRPORT AROUND 12Z THURSDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

D-L/SWE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1038 AM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

COZ030>051-161200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1038 AM MDT WED AUG 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS BY 1 PM...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  A FEW LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.  THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS EACH DAY.  A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

D-L/SWE