Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 110028
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
628 PM MDT FRI AUG 10 2007

COC039-110038-
/O.CAN.KBOU.SV.W.0137.000000T0000Z-070811T0100Z/
ELBERT CO-
628 PM MDT FRI AUG 10 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 3937 10419 3925 10421 3917 10394 3939 10389

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
320 PM MDT FRI AUG 10 2007

.SHORT TERM...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST
OF DENVER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE NOW TRAVELLING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  A FEW MORE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE PREPARING TO MOVE
ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  WE MAY SEE ONE OR
TWO SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING
AS WELL AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS COME OUT OF JEFFERSON COUNTY.
BEYOND THAT...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY LATE EVENING...AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END.  BASED ON EXAMINATION OF THE GOES
SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...TODAYS STORMS ARE AT LEAST
PARTIALLY FUELED BY ENHANCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN LINCOLN AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES FROM HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL EARLIER THIS WEEK.

FOR SATURDAY...AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE STATE ALONG
WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS CAPPED.  MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER
COLORADO IS MISSING FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS QPF FIELDS TOMORROW.
HAVE HELD ON TO 10-20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
THOUGH...BECAUSE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GENERATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EACH OF THE LAST FEW DAYS.  SO OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...THE MAIN STORY IS CONTINUED HOT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS ERN CO
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES. THERE APPEARS TO
BE AN INCREASE IN MSTR OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS NEXT BATCH OF MSTR
ROTATES AROUND THE HIGH AND ACROSS CO BY LATE SUN. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH AGAIN. THE INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT GREAT
SO SEVERE THREAT ON THE LOW SIDE. SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED MSTR AND HIGH PWS ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE ROTATES AND SQUASHES THE HIGH WITH WEAK SFC FRONT
MOVING INTO ERN CO LATE TUE AND WED. THIS WILL GIVE ERN CO A BIT
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND 90 BY WED AND A
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS. HIGH ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS AGAIN AND LOWER PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN
CHANGE TO GRIDS WAS TO COOL HIGH TEMPS ON WED/THU AND RAISE POPS
SLIGHTLY.

&

.AVIATION...A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER JEFFERSON
COUNTY AT 2130Z WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF KDEN THROUGH
00Z.  OTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE
GATES SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 03Z.  NO OTHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KDRBY/SWE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1112 AM MDT FRI AUG 10 2007

COZ030>051-111200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1112 AM MDT FRI AUG 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN.  STORM ACTIVITY WILL ORIGINATE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN
DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 76 WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
IN THOSE AREAS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER.

INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
WILL BE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DANKERS/SWE