Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WGUS75 KBOU 220144
FFSBOU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
738 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2007

COC005-220148-
ARAPAHOE CO-
738 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM MDT FOR CENTRAL
ARAPAHOE COUNTY...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS EXITED THE AREA.  AN 
AUTOMATED RAIN GUAGE NEAR BUCKLEY AIR FORCE BASE REPORTED 1.93 
INCHES OF RAIN IN 90 MINUTES.  

COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED NO FLOODING PROBLEMS. 

LAT...LON 3966 10476 3963 10470 3973 10461 3974 10470

$$
ENTREKIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
135 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2007

.SHORT TERM...IT IS LOOKING LIKE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY WILL
BE THE LINE ON THE FOOTHILLS CONVERGENCE INTO SOUTH PARK WHICH WILL
BE DRIFTING WESTWARD. SEEING SOME GOOD PULSES IN THIS LINE...BUT
NOTHING REALLY SUSTAINED. SO MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS...BUT CAPES ARE LIMITED AS THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MIXING OUT MORE THAN THE MODELS FORECAST. SO
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALSO BE IN THE FORM OF SHORT
PULSES. EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IF SOMETHING COULD START ON THE DENVER
CYCLONE CONVERGENCE LINE BUT IT HAS PROBABLY DRIED OUT TOO MUCH FOR
THAT.

UPPER HIGH HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PUT US CLEARLY INTO THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SO CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE AWAY FROM US. SINCE LOWER LEVEL SPEEDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE
LIGHT...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME TRAPPED LOWER CLOUDS FROM THE RAIN
BUT EXPECT THIS WILL BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AND MORE
LIKELY WEST OF OUR AREA. PLAINS WINDS HAVE REALLY CRANKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND SHALLOW INVERSION FORMS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP MUCH OF THE NIGHT DESPITE THE CLEARING.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN WITH EVER SO SLIGHT DRYING AND
WARMING. THIS IS WELL COVERED ALREADY...JUST TWEAKED THE CLOUD COVER
TO FOCUS IT MORE ON THE MOUNTAINS THAN THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE WL BE OVER WYOMING THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY MID LVL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWFA. BULK OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND WEST OF COLORADO. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OVER MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS...ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ISOLATED POPS GOING. PLAINS WILL
REMAIN CAPPED WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL WARMING. LATEST NAM SHOWS
WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD HINDER ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT. RIDGE THEN ESTABLISHES ITSELF FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY SHIFT IN THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN COLORADO AND MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PERHAPS THE FOOTHILLS. FLOW ALOFT LOOKING TOO WEAK FOR ANY FOOTHILL
CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE ONTO PLAINS. BUT LOW POPS CURRENTY IN
GRIDS...WILL LEAVE ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS SUGGESTING SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING...COULD BE A FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. INTRODUCED LOW POPS EARLIER
FOR FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...BASED IN EARLIER GFS
SHOWING LIGHT QPF IN THAT AREA. LATEST GFS HAS SHIFTED THE QPF
FURTHER SOUTH...SO NOT SURE IF THE SATURDAY MORNING PRECIP WILL PAN
OUT. WILL KEEP IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GATES SHOULD
PROPAGATE WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESS ACTIVITY AFTER THAT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM SOUTH OR EAST OF THE AIRPORT
THROUGH 02Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

GIMMESTAD/LESZCYNSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2007

COZ030>051-221200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1057 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHER VALLEYS.  THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY PRODUCE
UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL IN SOME.
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IT WILL BE DRY AS WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH.  A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

GIMMESTAD/LESZCYNSKI