Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Boise, ID

000 
WWUS85 KBOI 100437
RFWBOI

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1037 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2007

IDZ418-419-ORZ636-637-100545-
/O.CAN.KBOI.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070810T0600Z/
WESTERN TWIN FALLS BLM-OWYHEE MOUNTAINS-BURNS BLM-VALE BLM-
1037 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2007 /937 PM PDT THU AUG 9 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IN OREGON ZONES 636 AND 637 AND IDAHO ZONES 418 AND
419...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING. 

THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE WARNED AREAS HAVE
DISSIPATED AND ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
941 AM MDT THU AUG 9 2007

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DEFINITE CIRCULATION IN
NEVADA MOVING NE TOWARD SOUTHERN IDAHO...NOT WELL DEPICTED IN
PROGS.  MID CREW ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO IDAHO/NEVADA
BORDER ZONES FOR LATE TODAY/TONIGHT.  ANOTHER CIRCULATION
AREA OFF NW CALIF 41/128 WAS STRETCHING NEWD AS IT APPROACHED
THE COAST...PROGS HANDLING THAT FEATURE BETTER.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE TODAY/TONIGHT IN OUR WRN AND NRN
OREGON ZONES...GETTING INTO WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  GFS 850-500 RH PATTERN AND TREND LOOKS GOOD FOR
PLACING THESE THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z BOI RAOB A FULL 5C WARMER
THAN 12Z YESTERDAY SURFACE TO 850 MB BUT PART OF THAT INCREASE
OCCURRED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  LESS INCREASE IS EXPECTED
TODAY.  THEREFORE MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5F
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...AS ALREADY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. SMOKE
CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO
WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND IN OREGON OVER BAKER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SW-W.

&&

.FIRE WX...FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE FIRE WX WATCH IN AREAS
LISTED BELOW...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE NEVADA MOISTURE MAY
REACH SOUTHERN IDAHO TOO SOON TO DEVELOP A RED FLAG EVENT.
FINAL DECISION 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR TAHOE
MOVING NORTHEAST WILL BRING BROAD LIFT AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING FOR INSTABILITY MAXIMIZED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTHERN HALVES OF
HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED WHILE GREATEST
CAPE IS EXPECTED OVER OWYHEE/SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTIES. SHEAR IS
WEAK BUT GREATEST OVER SRN TWF COUNTY. SO EXPECT SHORT LIVED PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE ID-NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE WELL
ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL WAVE. HIGHS WILL BE UP AROUND 4F OVER SW IDAHO
AND UP 1-2F IN SE OREGON AS YESTERDAYS TROUGH EXITS MT THIS MORNING
LEAVING SW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN EMBEDDED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW/TROUGH. A
NE PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE BC AND NW WA COASTAL AREA THIS MORNING
WILL DROP INTO THE LONGWAVE NE PACIFIC TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN
LIFT NE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY. THIS FFEATURE DROPS OUR
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BACK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LIGHT NW TO SW SURFACE WINDS WITH HIGHER PRESSURE OFF THE
OREGON COAST AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER UT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO
REBUILD EARLY SATURDAY FOR DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A GRADUAL
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT
WESTWARD BY MIDWEEK AS UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW
CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH. MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A LATE
THURSDAY LANDFALL OF THIS TROUGH. INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH THAN WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN....FOR
ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...HAVE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
TYPICALLY 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...EXPANDED AREA OF FIRE WEATHER WATCH WITH POTENTIAL
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES.
WELL ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER N-CENTRAL CA THIS MORNING WILL
BREAK CAP AND COMBINE WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN BURNS/VALE BLM AND FAR SOUTHERN IDAHO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR IDZ418-IDZ419.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM MDT /NOON PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ636-ORZ637.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....DF
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....MT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
533 AM MDT THU AUG 9 2007

IDZ011>016-028>030-ORZ061>064-101145-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ID-BOISE MOUNTAINS-
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY-SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY-
CAMAS PRAIRIE-OWYHEE MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY-
HARNEY COUNTY-BAKER COUNTY-MALHEUR COUNTY-
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY OR-
533 AM MDT THU AUG 9 2007 /433 AM PDT THU AUG 9 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...SOUTHWEST IDAHO...WEST CENTRAL IDAHO...NORTHEAST OREGON
AND SOUTHEAST OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.