Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Boise, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
334 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER TO OREGON SATURDAY AND SW IDAHO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOCALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL. PRIOR TO THE FRONT....TONIGHT WILL BE MILD AS THE THERMAL
AXIS EXPANDS OVER OUR CWFA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL DROP INTO NW U.S. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR
INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT OVER OREGON AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FAR NORTHERN ZONES. UPSTREAM/OFFSHORE MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT THE
COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS WILL INCREASE LIFT AND RH ENOUGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. PROFILES
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH THUNDERSTORMS. WARMEST HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE HAGERMAN-MAGIC VALLEY AREA FURTHEST AWAY
FROM THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE THROUGH SE OREGON IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THROUGH SW IDAHO LATE AT NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING...INCREASING WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE
MAGIC VALLEY AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. A 35KT SPEED MAX AT H7 WILL PUSH
THROUGH FAR S CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH NOONTIME FOR VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS UNTIL 3 PM. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES TO
AROUND 4 MBS KTWF-KBKE BY 6 PM AND A COOLER NIGHT IS ON TAP.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONTINUITY IS A
LITTLE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS IS STILL
MUCH LESS THAN PERFECT. SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE WORD OF THE DAY.
FOR EXAMPLE...ON MONDAY THE CANADIAN AND SOME OF THE NCEP ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS STILL HAVE THE TROUGH PARKED OVER WASHINGTON/ OREGON WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS HAVE IT WELL EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH HEIGHTS
REBUILDING OVER OUR CWFA. CONFIDENCE IMPROVES BY MID WEEK. HPC LIKES
THE DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE B.C. COAST CENTERED NEAR 140W. THIS
SUPPORTS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SO THE WARMING TREND
DOES SEEM TO BE VALID. WE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. THE OUTLOOK
CONTINUES DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM NEAR NORMAL MONDAY TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL...AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS...TEMPERATURES STILL WARM THROUGH THURSDAY BUT
DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS FURTHER INLAND.
HAVE KEPT POPS TO A MINIMUM FOR NOW...AS TIMING OF SHORTWAVE IS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO VFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
SOUTH AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF BOISE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS 15-25 KTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO. SATURDAY EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 20-30 KTS WITH AREAS OF 25-35 KTS EAST OF BOISE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR IDZ418-IDZ419.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR IDZ016-IDZ028.
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ636-ORZ637.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT/MT
AVIATION.....JT

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