Tornado Warning 128, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 072153
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
453 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

ALC085-072203-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0128.000000T0000Z-070707T2215Z/
LOWNDES AL-
453 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR LOWNDES COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3226 8645 3234 8650 3241 8645 3240 8643
      3242 8639 3241 8631 3247 8631 3249 8625
      3249 8625 3227 8620

$$

ALC101-072215-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0128.000000T0000Z-070707T2215Z/
MONTGOMERY AL-
453 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

AT 449 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HUNTER...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF PRATTVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  HUNTER BY 500 PM CDT...
  MONTGOMERY BY 515 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3226 8645 3234 8650 3241 8645 3240 8643
      3242 8639 3241 8631 3247 8631 3249 8625
      3249 8625 3227 8620

$$
JD/81

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 072202
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
502 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

ALC101-072212-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0128.000000T0000Z-070707T2215Z/
MONTGOMERY AL-
502 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3226 8645 3234 8650 3241 8645 3240 8643
      3242 8639 3241 8631 3247 8631 3249 8625
      3249 8625 3227 8620

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
323 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE MASS OF RAIN THAT COVERED MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING HAS BECOME A BIT MORE PATCHY..WHILE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF
THE CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL MS...
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM IT INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. THE CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LITTLE LOW
LEVEL JET AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...HAS ACTUALLY A FEW STORMS
TO SPIN...AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO TREND TOWARD A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THAT IS HELPING
BRING THIS MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF HERE BY MORNING. WOULD THEN EXPECT A MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST (MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND)
PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LOOK AND FEEL.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD MOVING INTO WRN AL SIGNALING A GRADUAL
CHANGE IN FORECAST CONDITIONS...FROM STRATIFORM TO MORE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY. EITHER WAY...EXPECT TEMPO TO PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RA/SHRA/TS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...TO BE FOLLOWED BY
MVFR CEILINGS -RA/BR OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONDITIONS AT MGM, TCL, AND TOI WILL BE MORE OF THE
TEMPO VARIETY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW.

JD/81

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  68  91  69 /  80  70  20  40  30
ANNISTON    69  86  68  91  69 / 100  70  20  40  30
BIRMINGHAM  70  88  70  90  70 /  70  50  10  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  70  90  70  92  69 /  50  30  10  30  20
CALERA      69  87  70  91  70 /  70  50  10  30  20
AUBURN      69  85  70  91  71 /  90  70  20  40  20
MONTGOMERY  72  88  71  93  72 /  80  50  10  30  20
TROY        72  89  71  93  70 /  80  50  10  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-081730-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1227 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GEIGER IN NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTY...
TO MONTGOMERY...TO EUFAULA. WHILE THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...IF STRONG STORMS ARE
ABLE TO GET GOING...THERE IS A SMALL BUT DISTINCT THREAT OF THESE
STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH 7 PM
THIS EVENING.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL:
BIRMINGHAM...VERY LOW.
MONTGOMERY...LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

JD/81