Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
317 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...OTHER THAN THE ADDED WORKLOAD OF NOW ACTUALLY HAVING
GRASS TO MOW...NOT GOING TO COMPLAIN MUCH ABOUT THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GENERALLY THROUGH THE FIRST 84 HOURS...
ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERNS IN THAT NEITHER NAM NOR GFS REALLY SEEMED
TO DO WELL IN THE INITIAL PERIOD TODAY. HOWEVER...MORE LARGE
SCALE/SYNOPTIC SCALE INFLUENCES HIGHLIGHTED BY BOTH MODELS SHOULD
BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY TOMORROW. AS TROUGH SHARPENS ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES...THAT WILL PUT US IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND ON
THE FRINGES OF CONCERN FOR MCS/DERECHO ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD MOST
LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF DECENT RAIN CHANCES. EXPECT TO SEE A
BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE ON
SATURDAY.  THEN...WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING/SHARPENING OVER THE
WEST...GFS SEEMS TO BREAK OFF A BIT OF A LOW IN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...WHICH LINGERS WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SHEARS OUT. AFTER A BRIEF STINT OVER THE MIDWEST...BOTH GFS AND
EURO DRIFT THIS WEAKNESS EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. EITHER WAY...THE
POSITION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS APPEAR AT
LEAST TO OFFER NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
MOST PART...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

JD/81

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
AFFECT THE BMX...EET TCL AND ANB AIRFIELDS BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z...AND
LIKELY APPROACH MGM AND TOI BY 22Z.  CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM 3000
TO 5000 FEET...DROPPING TO 2000 FEET OR LESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.  VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE DIMINISHED...AS LOW AS 1/2
MILE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.  PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ELECTED TO INCLUDES
VCTS OR SHRA AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY BEFORE NOON AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  85  66  89  66 /  60  80  10  10  10
ANNISTON    71  86  68  90  68 /  60  70  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  74  87  69  90  68 /  60  70  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  89  71  92  69 /  60  70  10  10  20
CALERA      74  88  70  90  68 /  60  70  20  10  20
AUBURN      72  86  71  90  70 /  20  50  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  74  91  72  93  70 /  20  50  20  10  10
TROY        74  90  71  93  71 /  20  40  30  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

81/81/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-111801-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE THROUGH 8
PM.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE ALSO A CONCERN.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES...COUPLED WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY
IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL:
BIRMINGHAM...LOW.
MONTGOMERY...LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA.

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

KSL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
216 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

ALZ023-101945-
TUSCALOOSA-
216 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR TUSCALOOSA COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM CDT...

AT 215 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF BROOKWOOD...AND ANOTHER STORM NEAR
RALPH. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM LIGHTNING BY SEEKING SHELTER IN
A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING OR A METAL AUTOMOBILE. IF YOU ARE ON
THE WATER AND YOUR BOAT HAS A CABIN...USE THE CABIN FOR A LIGHTNING
SHELTER. OTHERWISE...BOATERS SHOULD HEAD TO SHORE AND SEEK SHELTER
THERE. AVOID ELECTRICAL DEVICES AND OTHER OBJECTS WHICH CAN CONDUCT
LIGHTNING. WAIT AT LEAST 30 MINUTES AFTER THE LAST RUMBLE OF THUNDER
BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LIGHTNING AND MINOR FLOODING. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE. TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOURSELF
BY SEEKING SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING. IF OUTDOORS
AND A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING IS NOT AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER
IN AN AUTOMOBILE. MINOR FLOODING SUCH AS PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. RISING WATER ALONG
CREEKS AND FLOODED UNDERPASSES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
ROADWAYS WITH WATER FLOWING OVER THEM OR...COVERED WITH WATER OF
UNKNOWN DEPTH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
242 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

ALZ026-102015-
ST. CLAIR-
242 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR ST. CLAIR COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM CDT...

AT 240 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF ASHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT YOURSELF BY SEEKING SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL
ENCLOSED BUILDING. IF OUTDOORS AND A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING
IS NOT AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER IN AN AUTOMOBILE.

TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM LIGHTNING BY SEEKING SHELTER IN
A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING OR A METAL AUTOMOBILE. IF YOU ARE ON
THE WATER AND YOUR BOAT HAS A CABIN...USE THE CABIN FOR A LIGHTNING
SHELTER. OTHERWISE...BOATERS SHOULD HEAD TO SHORE AND SEEK SHELTER
THERE. AVOID ELECTRICAL DEVICES AND OTHER OBJECTS WHICH CAN CONDUCT
LIGHTNING. WAIT AT LEAST 30 MINUTES AFTER THE LAST RUMBLE OF THUNDER
BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
312 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W STEELE              33.93N 86.21W
07/10/2007                   ST. CLAIR          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON BYNUM RD.

&&

SUNGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
324 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

ALZ034-102100-
BIBB-
324 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR BIBB COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

AT 323 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEST BLOCTON...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45
MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH
IN DIAMETER...DIME SIZE...WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WILL BREAK
OFF SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN
FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS. TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM
LIGHTNING BY SEEKING SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING OR A
METAL AUTOMOBILE. IF YOU ARE ON THE WATER AND YOUR BOAT HAS A
CABIN... USE THE CABIN FOR A LIGHTNING SHELTER. OTHERWISE...BOATERS
SHOULD HEAD TO SHORE AND SEEK SHELTER THERE. AVOID ELECTRICAL DEVICES
AND OTHER OBJECTS WHICH CAN CONDUCT LIGHTNING. WAIT AT LEAST 30
MINUTES AFTER THE LAST RUMBLE OF THUNDER BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

12/SIRMON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
458 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

ALZ030-102245-
SUMTER-
458 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

...THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LIVINGSTON AND YORK...CUBA...WARD.

AT 456 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. STRONG WINDS WILL BREAK OFF SMALL
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE
AND TRASH CANS. TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM LIGHTNING BY
SEEKING SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING OR A METAL
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOU ARE ON THE WATER AND YOUR BOAT HAS A CABIN...USE
THE CABIN FOR A LIGHTNING SHELTER. OTHERWISE...BOATERS SHOULD HEAD TO
SHORE AND SEEK SHELTER THERE. AVOID ELECTRICAL DEVICES AND OTHER
OBJECTS WHICH CAN CONDUCT LIGHTNING. WAIT AT LEAST 30 MINUTES AFTER
THE LAST RUMBLE OF THUNDER BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

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