Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
227 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. WILL WAIT UNTIL A FEW MINUTES BEFORE ISSUANCE
TIME TO ADJUST POPS TO THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE BIT MORE CHALLENGING ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IS
SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE GFS AND
NAM HAVE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL
SEE ACROSS THE AREA BUT BOTH AGREE THAT THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS IN MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NAM ALSO
SHOWS CAPE VALUES IN 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WHICH IS MUCH LOWER
THAN TODAY. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS IS SHOWING MUCH BETTER MOISTURE
ALOFT AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 5000 TO 6000 J/KG RANGE. THIS MAY BE
A LITTLE OVERDONE BY THE GFS. BOTH MODELS PERFORMED AND INITIALIZED
WELL TODAY AND YESTERDAY. BASED ON THAT...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF
BOTH MODELS.

SUNDAY AND ONWARD...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. HIGH
PRESSURE SETS IN ON SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE ON RAIN TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY WARM...ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A MORE RAINY PATTERN SETS UP OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE RADAR SCREEN
AT ISSUANCE. STARTED MOST LOCATIONS WITH VCTS WITH TEMPO TS.
CEILINGS GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS. PUT 25 TO 30 KTS IN THE
FORECAST WITH HIGHEST ONE MINUTE POTENTIAL OF 50KTS OR SO.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING FROM 01-03Z. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE
WITH GENERALLY TEMPO MVFR VIS. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY REMAINS NEAR MGM/TOI SATURDAY AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  92  63  92  63 /  30  20  10   0  10
ANNISTON    69  92  65  93  65 /  30  20  10   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  73  90  66  94  64 /  30  20  10   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  92  67  94  64 /  30  20  10   0  10
CALERA      73  90  67  92  66 /  30  20  10   0  10
AUBURN      71  91  70  93  68 /  20  30  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  92  69  96  68 /  30  30  10  10  10
TROY        72  93  68  95  67 /  20  40  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
249 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-091130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
249 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 8 PM.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO
60 MPH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM 6 TIL
8 PM...A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH THIS
EVENING THAT WILL KEEP WEAKER STORMS GOING FROM 8 TIL 10 PM.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL:
BIRMINGHAM...MODERATE.
MONTGOMERY...MODERATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ROUGHLY
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THREATS AGAIN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...
HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.

75

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
156 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

ALZ021-081945-
CLEBURNE-
156 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR CLEBURNE COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM CDT...

AT 153 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HEFLIN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. STRONG WINDS WILL BREAK OFF SMALL
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE
AND TRASH CANS. TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM LIGHTNING BY
SEEKING SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL ENCLOSED BUILDING OR A METAL
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOU ARE ON THE WATER AND YOUR BOAT HAS A CABIN...USE
THE CABIN FOR A LIGHTNING SHELTER. OTHERWISE...BOATERS SHOULD HEAD TO
SHORE AND SEEK SHELTER THERE. AVOID ELECTRICAL DEVICES AND OTHER
OBJECTS WHICH CAN CONDUCT LIGHTNING. WAIT AT LEAST 30 MINUTES AFTER
THE LAST RUMBLE OF THUNDER BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

KSL

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