Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
308 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT)

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AT
THIS TIME. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE OCCASIONALLY PICKED UP TO NEAR 20KTS. WITH
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTINUING TO TAP THE
DEEPER MOISTURE...CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER FARTHER NORTH APPEAR
VERY LIMITED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ARE SHARPLY COLDER WITH MANY
AREAS UPSTREAM REMAINING IN THE 40S TODAY. WE WILL GET ANOTHER
TASTE OF WINTER WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MUCH MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF JANUARY THAN MID APRIL. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WHEN WIDESPREAD
30S ARE EXPECTED. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS
COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING. MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR HIGHS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY - SATURDAY)

A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL APPROACH
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN WELL BY THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN. THERE DOESNT APPEAR MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR RETURN FLOW TO
DEVELOP SO THE GFS QPF AMOUNTS SEEM OVERDONE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
COMING IN THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER THIS SYSTEM...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS IN KEEPING US DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF UPDATE.

WILL BE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS TO REDUCE SHRA AND TS
WORDING ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME CHANGES TO CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE
MADE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MUCH LOWER CLOUD DECK COMING IN FROM
MISS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     44  51  33  68  40 /  70  30   0   0   0
ANNISTON    47  52  35  67  43 /  70  30   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  45  53  36  68  46 /  60  20   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  46  57  37  70  46 /  50  20   0   0   0
CALERA      46  54  38  69  46 /  70  20   0   0   0
AUBURN      46  56  37  64  46 / 100  20   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  52  59  37  73  45 /  90  20   0   0   0
TROY        49  57  34  68  44 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY ENTIRE AREA
UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT.

&&

88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1251 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-151200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1251 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...

IT STILL APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH 8
PM CDT THIS EVENING.  NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE PROVIDE THE HIGHEST RISK OF TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON SUNDAY...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1148 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

ALZ011-013>015-141730-
FAYETTE-MARION-WALKER-WINSTON-
1148 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR FAYETTE...WALKER...WINSTON
AND MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1147 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GUIN TO 5 MILES EAST OF
WINFIELD TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF CARBON HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60
MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT IS SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...DIME SIZE...IS POSSIBLE.  IF OUTDOORS...
GO INDOORS OR UNDER A SUBSTANTIAL BUILDING...OR SEEK SHELTER IN AN
AUTOMOBILE.

THE PRIMARY THREATS IS MINOR FLOODING SUCH AS PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. RISING WATER ALONG
CREEKS AND FLOODED UNDERPASSES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
ROADWAYS WITH WATER FLOWING OVER THEM OR...COVERED WITH WATER OF
UNKNOWN DEPTH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1157 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 AM     HAIL             VERNON                  33.76N 88.11W
04/14/2007  E0.25 INCH       LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN VERNON.

&&

LINHARES