Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

000 
WWUS84 KBMX 172309
RFWBMX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
609 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

ALZ011>015-017>050-181100-
/O.EXP.KBMX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070517T2300Z/
/O.CON.KBMX.FW.W.0009.070518T1700Z-070518T2300Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
609 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CDT
FRIDAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR TODAY...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT TODAY...AS WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO DIMINISH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO RISE. A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CDT FRIDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...DRY CONDITIONS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A COMBINATION OF WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

JD/81

000 
WWUS84 KBMX 181011
RFWBMX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
511 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...THIS COMBINATION WILL CREATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ALZ011>015-017>050-182000-
/O.CON.KBMX.FW.W.0009.070518T1700Z-070518T2300Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
511 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT
THIS AFTERNOON...

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...DRY SOIL
CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.

$$

000 
WWUS84 KBMX 181941
RFWBMX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
241 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WILL CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ALZ011>015-017>050-182300-
/O.CON.KBMX.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070518T2300Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
241 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS
THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING.


$$

KSL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1205 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING BEHIND FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS
MONTGOMERY AND DEMOPOLIS...BUT THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8 AM CDT
AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE TODAY AND PRODUCE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE...WHICH
IS VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA. BASED ON EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WILL LEAN TOWARDS SIDE OF
CAUTION AND UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

A COLD START NEXT FEW MORNINGS AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S
MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF DEEP UPPER
TROF. RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL
BE NEAR RECORD VALUES. GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
EAST COAST UPPER TROF EASES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN
HEIGHT RISES OVER ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN DOMINATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING SLOWLY EACH DAY.  THE
MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN LOWER THAN NORMAL UNTIL ABOUT WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA.  FOR
NOW...LOOKING AT ANOTHER BACKDOOR SYSTEM TO SWING DOWN THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  UNFORTUNATELY
STILL DONT SEE ANY MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM THAT WOULD
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO BREAK OUT OF THE EXTREME DROUGHT.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  STRONGER
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE NOW MIXING DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TAFS WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 22 KNOTS DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER AREA WITH PREDOMINANT SKC AND P6SM
VSBYS. LOW DEW POINTS WILL PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO PICK UP TO 10 TO 13 KNOTS AGAIN AFTER 14Z
AS STRONGER WINDS OFF THE SURFACE MIX DOWN AGAIN.

41

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON ALL COUNTIES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
139 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-181841-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
139 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 6PM CDT FOR AN
UNUSUALLY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.  THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW
SOIL MOISTURE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE RISK FOR FIRES TO BURN
OUT OF CONTROL.  OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITIES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW SOIL MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KSL