Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.UPDATED...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)

NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT IS NOW WELL TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND A DRIER
COOLER AIRMASS IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN
GEORGIA AND EASTERN ALABAMA ARE RAPIDLY FALLING. IN FACT THE
DEWPOINT AT ANNISTON DROPPED FROM 56 TO 35 BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM AND
FROM 52 TO 43 AT ANNISTON BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM. THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE WESTWARD AND SHOULD ENCOMPASS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA NO LATER THAN 10 AM. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S TODAY. MILD TEMPERATURES...CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A REALLY NICE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE NOON...BUT
SHOULD RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY AND
DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT. MOST RESIDENTS WILL WAKE UP TO THE FIRST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN QUITE A WHILE TOMORROW MORNING.
READINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REBOUND A
BIT...BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH MID
WEEK UNDER CLEAR SKIES.  NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

12/SIRMON

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AND MODEL SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAS SLIPPED SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS HANDLING THE EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO KICK OUT THE UPPER LOW AND
RACE IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...IT STANDS ALONE WITH
THIS SOLUTION. AT BEST...THE GFS SOLUTION IS TOO FAST AND SHOULD BE
SLOWED DOWN. AT WORST...IT COMPLETELY MISHANDLES THE THE COASTAL LOW
AND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH. EURO...GEM...AND
NOGAPS ALL HOLD ON TO THE COASTAL LOW...AND DO NOT EJECT IT. EURO
ACTUALLY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND AS IT WEAKENS...MORPHS IT INTO A SINGULAR...BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE WEAKENING TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE NET RESULT HERE IS TO HOLD ON TO RIDGING A BIT LONGER
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES OFF UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. OVERALL...BELIEVE GFS/MEX POPS
ARE TOO SOON AND TOO HIGH (AS THEY HAVE BEEN THIS PAST WEEKEND)...
AND WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. HOPEFULLY I AM NOT BEING TO BEARISH ON
THESE POPS...BUT THEN AGAIN...IT SURE WOULD BE NICE TO SEE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL AROUND HERE. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE CLOSE...BUT STILL
TOOK A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE ON HIGHS...AND STAYED VERY CLOSE ON LOWS.

JD/81

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING IS GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS...MAINLY FOR BHM,
EET, TCL, AND MGM AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX
AS CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO GEORGIA...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT BY 18Z AT ALL SITES. VFR PLUS
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

JD/81

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY AIR IS SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND FLOWING INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL DROP GENERALLY INTO THE 30S
AND 40S AREAWIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DROP IN DEW
POINTS WILL PUSH THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL HOVER NEAR THE 10 MPH
MARK ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS ON TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...
KBDI VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE MAINLY BELOW THE CRITICAL
VALUE OF 500...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS REPORTING JUST ABOVE 500.
THEREFORE...THERE IS NO NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED WITH ANY
BURNING ACTIVITIES DUE TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND WIND.

12/SIRMON

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

12/81/81

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
550 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-081045-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
550 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JD/81