Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
420 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD...AS WELL THEY SHOULD BE
FOR A RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD HOT AND DRY FORECAST. MAIN SHORTCOMING
IN THE MODELS AGAIN APPEARS TO BE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS NOT
ALL THAT SURPRISING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE
GRADUALLY CATCHING ON...LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEME AND H8 TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS INDICATE EVEN THE HIGH ENSEMBLE MEMBER IS RUNNING ABOUT 2
TO 3 DEGREES F TOO LOW. THIS WILL PUT TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S
TODAY...THE MID 90S FRIDAY...AND PUSHING 100 IN A FEW LOCATIONS BY
SATURDAY. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE THE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS BRINGING SOME SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY TODAY...BUT EVEN THAT MOISTURE WILL BE STRUGGLING WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA.  IN THE LONG RUN...BELIEVE
THE OTHER FACTORS WILL HOLD SWAY ON THE TEMPS.

THE OTHER ISSUE/FACTOR WITH MODELS THIS MORNING IS DEWPOINT TEMPS...
WHICH WERE BROADLY OVER FORECASTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE YESTERDAY...AS
THEY DID NOT ACCOUNT FOR MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR ALOFT. A QUICK LOOK
AT FORECAST PROFILES TONIGHT WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE A SIMILAR
SITUATION TODAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL WELL BELOW
THE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PROMPTING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS NOTED BELOW.

POP-WISE...NO DISPUTES HERE...0 POPS FIRST THREE PERIODS...FOLLOWED
BY THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF POPS PER MAV GUIDANCE BY SATURDAY.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPS OVER INLAND ALABAMA LOOK
TO SET UP A BIT OF A HEAT LOW...A LA THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY OF CA OR
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND INDUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH USHERS THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY UP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

JD/81

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REESTABLISH ITSELF ON
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE LOW HUMIDITIES WE SEE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. NOT GOING TO STRAY MUCH
FROM THE GUIDANCE AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES.

PUTTING THESE TWO TOGETHER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REAR THEIR HEAD AGAIN. BUT WHAT
CAN YOU EXPECT...SUMMER IS OFFICIALLY HERE. RAINFALL TOTALS WONT
EVEN TOUCH THE DEFICITS WE ARE RUNNING AT THIS POINT...

GFS LOVES TO BRING THE IDEA OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THE END OF
THE SOLUTION...BUT NOT BUYING IT AT THIS TIME..JUST WISHFUL
THINKING.

27/SWU

&&

.AVIATION...06Z DISCUSSION.

CENTRAL ALABAMA SITS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS AROUND
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE PERIOD. THE LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION MAY ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO ROTATE FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEFT THE
CEILINGS VFR THROUGHOUT WITH MENTION OF SCT060 AT MGM/TOI/ANB AND
MAINLY CIRRUS ELSEWHERE. DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30KTS
EXIST JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW LLWS
CRITERIA BUT HANG AROUND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH HEATING AND MIXING 030-060 FROM 06-10KTS
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 20S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS COULD PEAK ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...SO ERRING ON THE SIDE OF
SAFETY...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS OF 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  56  94  60  94 /   0  10  10   0  10
ANNISTON    90  62  93  62  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  93  63  94  64  96 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  94  61  97  62 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      92  62  94  63  96 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      90  67  93  68  95 /   0  10   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  94  65  97  66  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        92  65  94  65  97 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM CDT.

&&

81/27/81

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
716 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-211130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
716 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AS WINDS
WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

75/LINHARES