Snow Advisory 12, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 PM CST MON DEC 3 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. NAM LOOKS TOO WARM AND DRY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE
GFS GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO SPILL INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM NORTH OF DICKINSON TO
SOUTH OF BISMARCK. GFS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS FAIRLY WELL. NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. BY THE GFS...THE
MAIN PRECIP EVENT WILL START AFTER MIDNIGHT. H8 TEMPS IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA LOOK TO BE -5C OR COLDER...SO EXPECT
MAINLY SNOW. BY THE TIME THE EVENT IS DONE...THIS AREA COULD SEE 3
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...SO CHANGED THIS AREA TO A SNOW ADVISORY. THE
ZERO ISOTHERM AT H8 AT 06Z WILL RUN FROM AROUND MINOT TO WEST OF
JAMESTOWN. SO STILL LOOKS LIKE A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CWA...EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THIS COVERED WELL BY THE
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING PRECIP.
H8 WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY
LOOK TO BE 50 KTS OR HIGHER. SO WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY IN THE
SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE INSISTENT ON
KEEPING A SNOW CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY TUESDAY EVENING...MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE SNOW. KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THEN DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD DAY IN THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...ELSEWHERE
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WEDNESDAY HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. A LITTLE WARMER SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY
MORE COLD AIR ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER
AIR FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NEXT SHOT OF
SNOW...ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP PATTERN SETTING UP
WITH 850MB SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND 500MB SOUTHWEST FLOW 12Z SAT
THROUGH 00Z SUN. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IF THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS
ITSELF IN UPCOMING MODEL RUNS...WOULD EXPECT A COUPLE OF INCHES IN
BISMARCK WITH MORE SNOW TO OUR EAST AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO RAISE POPS
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY. EXPECT A COUPLE OF WEAKER
SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SNOW AND SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN
ANOTHER SURGE OF SNOW MOVES INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER KMOT AND
KJMS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SNOW FOR KBIS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. KISN AND KDIK MAY SEE SOME FREEZING
TONIGHT...BUT WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW TUESDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO WILL SEE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA (KDIK) WITH 25KT SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 35KT BEGINNING
MID MORNING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-
017>022-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.

SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025.

&&

JF/KS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
452 AM CST MON DEC 3 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-041100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
452 AM CST MON DEC 3 2007 /352 AM MST MON DEC 3 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN
EXPECTED FROM WILLISTON TO BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND MAINLY
SNOW FROM BOTTINEAU TO HARVEY WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM CROSBY TO BOTTINEAU TO JAMESTOWN AND
ELLENDALE 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044-041100-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
352 AM MST MON DEC 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JV