Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Bismarck, ND

May 21, 2007Pierce County, Rolette County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 21, 2007, 8:08 PM CDT for Pierce County, Rolette County, North Dakota. It was in force for 67 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 21, 2007, 8:08 PM CDT (01:08 UTC)
Expired: May 21, 2007, 9:15 PM CDT
In force: 67 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Pierce County, ND, Rolette County, ND

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 21, 8:22 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 66	Rugby, ND
May 21, 8:35 PM CDT	HAIL 2	Rolette, ND	HAIL LASTED ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 14 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 21, 2:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 213 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1843 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -57 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1774 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 37 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 70 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 2.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KBIS 220108
SVRBIS
NDC069-079-220215-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0062.070522T0108Z-070522T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
808 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN PIERCE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
  ROLETTE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 807 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OVERLY
  TO RUGBY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
  BOTTINEAU TO 41 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOTTINEAU...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  THORNE AROUND 825 PM CDT...
  SHELL VALLEY AND ROLETTE AROUND 830 PM CDT...
  NANSON AROUND 835 PM CDT...
  WOLFORD AND BELCOURT AROUND 840 PM CDT...
  ST. JOHN AND MYLO AROUND 850 PM CDT...
  ROLLA AROUND 855 PM CDT...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4879 10017 4819 10015 4838 9985 4850 9952
      4900 9956

$$

ABELING

3 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 220131
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
831 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

NDC069-079-220215-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-070522T0215Z/
PIERCE ND-ROLETTE ND-
831 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR ROLETTE AND NORTHERN PIERCE COUNTIES...

AT 829 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
DUNSEITH TO RUGBY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES EAST OF
BOTTINEAU TO 41 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOTTINEAU...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  THORNE AROUND 840 PM CDT...
  SHELL VALLEY...ROLETTE AND NANSON AROUND 845 PM CDT...
  WOLFORD AROUND 850 PM CDT...
  BELCOURT AROUND 855 PM CDT...
  MYLO AROUND 900 PM CDT...
  ST. JOHN AROUND 905 PM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE...ALONG WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4879 10017 4819 10015 4838 9985 4850 9952
      4900 9956

$$

WAA

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 220149
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
848 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

NDC069-079-220215-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-070522T0215Z/
PIERCE ND-ROLETTE ND-
848 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR ROLETTE AND NORTHERN PIERCE COUNTIES...

AT 846 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE 
OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES.  THESE STORMS 
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROLETTE TO 7 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF WOLFORD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 33 MILES EAST 
OF BOTTINEAU TO 41 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOTTINEAU...MOVING NORTHEAST 
AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WOLFORD...MYLO AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELCOURT AROUND 855 PM
  CDT...
  ROLLA AROUND 900 PM CDT...

HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF 
ROLETTE WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE 
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4879 10017 4819 10015 4838 9985 4850 9952
      4900 9956

$$

ABELING

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 220214
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
914 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

NDC069-079-220224-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-070522T0215Z/
PIERCE ND-ROLETTE ND-
914 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ROLETTE AND NORTHERN PIERCE
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 915 PM CDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER POSES A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4879 10017 4819 10015 4838 9985 4850 9952
      4900 9956

$$

ABELING

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 21, 3:30 PM CDT, 4 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 21, 3:30 PM CDT, 4 hours 38 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT INVOLVE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. BIS
SPECIAL SOUNDING AT 17Z INDICATED CAPPING STILL PRESENT BUT WITH
CAPE OF CLOSE TO 2500 AT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 84. WITH SFC
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MID EVENING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED OUT AS WARM FRONT PROGRESSED
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ALONG COLD
FRONT AND PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS APPEAR
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. SOME TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TONIGHT...BUT WITH EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF
FRONTAL SYSTEM DONT ANTICIPATE FLASH FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME. AS
UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THINK THREAT A
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BLANKET WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
CWA... GENERALLY THE DRIEST AREAS OF THE REGION. COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LOW
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF DISARRAY AS THEY ATTEMPT TO HANDLE THE UPPER
WAVE DROPPING FROM SW CANADA INTO THE NW U.S. LATE THIS WEEK. THE
12Z GFS ACTUALLY SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THEN
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A WEAKENING WAVE IN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW SUN INTO MON. HOWEVER...WE TRENDED OUR FCST
TO A BLEND OF THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF AS THEY WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. EARLY ON THIS RESULTED IN COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER
CONDITIONS THAN THE 12Z GFS WOULD SUGGEST...WITH 850MB TEMPS A FEW
DEG WARMER ON THE NEW MODEL. EITHER WAY THOUGH IT WILL BE A COOL
WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM 0 TO JUST BLO 10 C NO MATTER
WHICH FLAVOR YOU CHOOSE...BUT WITH TIMING OF THE COLDEST TEMPS VERY
MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE UPPER WAVE. IN FACT...IF OR WHEN
WE DO SEE PRECIP IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET INTO THE 50S F. THE
ENSEMBLE GFS GUIDANCE SHOWS WELL THE MEDIOCRE CONFIDENCE WITH A
LARGE SPREAD IN THERMAL FIELDS DURING THE LONG TERM. OUR FCST IS
TRENDED TOWARD AND EVEN A BIT BELOW THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT AGAIN
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE UNTIL BETTER CONTINUITY IS ACHIEVED IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSRA WILL ERUPT ALONG A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD EAST THRU THE EVENING. SOME STORMS ARE APT TO BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING SFC WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SFC AND ALOFT. ACTIVITY
SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFT 00Z WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TAKING SHAPE OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL ND. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL LIKELY BE THE NORM WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE SHAPE AS THE
ACTIVITY PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

WAA/CJS

Hazardous weather outlook, May 21, 4:52 AM CDT, 15 hours 16 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
452 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-221000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
452 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2007 /352 AM MDT MON MAY 21 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

JV

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 21, 7:23 PM CDT, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
723 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     TORNADO          5 E GLEN ULLIN          46.81N 101.73W
05/21/2007                   MORTON             ND   STORM CHASER

            SECOND TORNODO REPLACES INITAL ONE.

&&

KJB

Local storm report, May 21, 7:41 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
741 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             LANSFORD                48.63N 101.38W
05/21/2007  E1.00 INCH       BOTTINEAU          ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STILL HAILING AT TIME OF REPORT.

&&

KJB

Local storm report, May 21, 7:54 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
754 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             5 E MAKOTI              47.96N 101.70W
05/21/2007  E1.25 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

&&

KJB

Local storm report, May 21, 8:00 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
800 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     HAIL             CENTER                  47.12N 101.30W
05/21/2007  E0.25 INCH       OLIVER             ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STILL OCCURING.

&&

KJB

Local storm report, May 21, 8:03 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
803 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     TSTM WND GST     CENTER                  47.12N 101.30W
05/21/2007  E60 MPH          OLIVER             ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

0757 PM     TSTM WND GST     CENTER                  47.12N 101.30W
05/21/2007  E60 MPH          OLIVER             ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY RAIN AND STREET FLOODING.

0757 PM     TSTM WND GST     CENTER                  47.12N 101.30W
05/21/2007  E60 MPH          OLIVER             ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY RAIN...0.57 INCHES AND STREET FLOODING.

&&

KJB

Local storm report, May 21, 8:03 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND...CORRECTION
803 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     TSTM WND GST     CENTER                  47.12N 101.30W
05/21/2007  E60 MPH          OLIVER             ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY RAIN...0.57 INCHES AND STREET FLOODING.

&&

KJB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 21, 7:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Sheridan	60 min
May 21, 7:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Morton	25 min
May 21, 7:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry	47 min
May 21, 7:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Mercer, Oliver	61 min
May 21, 7:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Renville	28 min
May 21, 7:22 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Oliver	38 min
May 21, 7:29 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Morton	31 min
May 21, 7:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Ward	55 min
May 21, 7:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Pierce, Rolette	58 min
May 21, 7:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau	25 min
May 21, 7:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean	67 min
May 21, 8:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Morton, Oliver	60 min
May 21, 8:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Mercer	25 min
May 21, 8:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Ward	38 min
May 21, 8:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, McLean, Morton, Oliver, Sheridan	62 min
May 21, 10:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh	50 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.