Severe Thunderstorm Warning 353, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG AND WEST OF THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN SD INTO EASTERN ND DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THIS FRONT. TO THE WEST...DRIZZLE AND FOG IS ABOUT ALL THE PRECIP I
EXPECT. ON SUNDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLEARING OUT WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST. AS UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH AND EXITS THE
REGION MONDAY...KEPT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST. THEN I DROPPED
ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THUS INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT...AS WELL AS KEEPING WHAT WAS IN THERE ACROSS
THE EAST FOR THURSDAY DAYTIME. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MODELS HINTING AT
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL AND ALL THOUGH...NO MAJOR
WEATHER SYSTEMS OR MAJOR TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...POSSIBLY THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR-LIFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST AT
LEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NAM12 SHOWING THIS
WELL VIA ITS 925MB RH TIME SERIES. IF THIS MODEL SOLUTION IS
ACCURATE...AND IF MAV GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS
WILL REDEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING
TILL 15-18Z. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING NORTHEAST
FROM THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL TRANSVERSE THE
FORECAST AREA 02Z THROUGH 13Z...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER MOST AREAS SAVE THE NORTHWEST. IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VIS WILL
RESULT IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

WAA/NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
436 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>022-031>035-040>046-070945-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-SLOPE-HETTINGER-
GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
436 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007 /336 AM MDT SAT OCT 6 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOG AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-070945-
WELLS-FOSTER-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
436 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOG AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL DROP
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1/2 MILES AT TIMES. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. IF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...SOME COULD BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.