Severe Thunderstorm Warning 348, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 170320
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1020 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

NDC013-023-170345-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0348.000000T0000Z-070917T0345Z/
BURKE ND-DIVIDE ND-
1020 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN DIVIDE AND WESTERN BURKE COUNTIES...

AT 1019 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF COLUMBUS TO 16 MILES SOUTH OF
CROSBY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 23 MILES EAST OF CROSBY TO 16
MILES SOUTH OF CROSBY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LARSON...COLUMBUS AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORTAL AROUND 1045 PM
  CDT...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. SEEK SHELTER
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4900 10320 4900 10297 4900 10255 4880 10259
      4865 10261 4864 10347 4865 10348 4864 10365
      4865 10367
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 231DEG 31KT 4902 10279 4868 10332

$$

WAA

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 170338
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1038 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

NDC013-023-170348-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0348.000000T0000Z-070917T0345Z/
BURKE ND-DIVIDE ND-
1038 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN DIVIDE AND WESTERN
BURKE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 1045 PM CDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER POSES A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

LAT...LON 4900 10320 4900 10297 4900 10255 4880 10259
      4865 10261 4864 10347 4865 10348 4864 10365
      4865 10367
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 231DEG 31KT 4912 10260 4878 10314

$$

ABELING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE FIRE WEATHER MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A
PROBLEM MONDAY AFTERNOON. MORE DISCUSSION ON THIS BELOW. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL UTILIZE A BLEND
TODAY.

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
IN EASTERN MONTANA WITH SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IN FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL CAPE
AROUND 0.5K J/KG WITH VERY SLIGHT CIN. CIN INCREASES AS YOU MOVE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON LATEST SATELLITE AND
RADAR BUT FEEL ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SPARSE AND WILL RESULT IN LOW
TO ZERO QPF. THEREFORE WILL START OFF DRY THIS EVENING. THE
POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY SOLIDIFY THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. LATEST RH VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS WITH 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS. STILL ENOUGH TIME FOR RH TO
DROP A BIT MORE SO WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING.

MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING POSSIBLE CONVECTION TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. AGAIN AREAL EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS. ALREADY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO WILL LEAVE THOSE WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WOULD
THINK BEST BET FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WOULD BE SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN CWA.

ON MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LINGERS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BEFORE BEING OVERCOME BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE
OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WARM LOW-MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES KEEPING A CAP ON CONVECTION. STILL THINK THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH FORCING WITH COMBINATION OF HEATING AND FORCING FROM
CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO SPARK A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND
EAST TUESDAY. WITH CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THROUGH A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. AFTER ANOTHER WARM
DAY ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NORTH TO
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO INFLUENCE MAINLY
SOUTHER ZONES. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TUESDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP IT DRY.
NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AGAIN...WILL NO ADJUST POPS AT THIS TIME AS IT STILL APPEARS
THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND PREVIOUS SHIFT HAS ALREADY INDICATED THIS WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BUMP THEM UP
EVEN HIGH JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS STATED ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH EXPIRATION
TIME OF 6 PM MDT. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS WILL
EXIST AGAIN ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOW NEARLY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TO 700 MB WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS OF
WIND AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN. FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WILL BE ANOTHER MARGINAL CASE BUT
CERTAINLY WORTH A MENTION IN AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A RFW FOR NOW TO AVOID ANY CONFUSION WITH CURRENT RFW
GOING. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE RFW AGAIN
MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

TWH/TSW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
444 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-
170945-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
444 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007 /344 AM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ018-031>033-040-041-043-044-170945-
DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
444 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007 /344 AM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WINDS OF 15 TO
20 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NH