Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY INVOLVES WHETHER FORCING MECHANISMS OVERCOME
A DEVELOPING THERMAL CAP. CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED RECENTLY NORTH OF GLASGOW...AND TRAJECTORY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL SKIRT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD...AND
WILL LIKELY ADD SMALL POPS IN THE NORTH. MEANWHILE AT H850 THERE IS
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH H850 LIFT IN
THE OMEGA FIELD...BUT MID LEVEL THERMAL CAP IS BUILDING FROM THE
WEST. I THINK STORMS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF KEEPING TOGETHER IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST...BUT SATELLITE PICS SHOWING
INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...AND BY NOON THE LOW
IS NEAR JAMESTOWN/DEVILS LAKE. WILL KEEP CHANCES NORTHEAST COUNTIES
- AGAIN WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST.

COOL DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE...RATHER CONSISTENT IN THE MODEL RUNS...CLIPS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE
ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED GRIDS EXCEPT TO DROP TEMPERATURES SOME
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. BOTH GFS AND EURO MODELS KEEP RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WITH HUDSON BAY LOW DROPPING SEVERE
DEGREES OF LATITUDE TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG MONTANA
DAKOTA BORDER CAUSED BY WARM ADVECTION 80H-70H LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL
NOCTURAL JET. THIS WILL INCREASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME
TAFS WILL NEED ADDITION OF VCTS WHERE PRESENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE
&&

JV/HW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
521 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-141030-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
521 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2007 /421 AM MDT MON AUG 13 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
800 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     HAIL             MOHALL                  48.77N 101.51W
08/13/2007  E1.75 INCH       RENVILLE           ND   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. HAIL RANGED
            FROM PEA SIZE UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

&&

CS/HW