Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 080815
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2007

NDC001-041-080830-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0263.000000T0000Z-070808T0830Z/
HETTINGER ND-ADAMS ND-
215 AM MDT WED AUG 8 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM MDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL ADAMS AND CENTRAL HETTINGER COUNTIES...

AT 211 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR REGENT...OR ABOUT 39 MILES SOUTH OF DICKINSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOTT AROUND 230 AM MDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.
PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4641 10280 4613 10270 4626 10217 4659 10231

$$
JF

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 080831
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2007

NDC001-041-080841-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0263.000000T0000Z-070808T0830Z/
HETTINGER ND-ADAMS ND-
231 AM MDT WED AUG 8 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL ADAMS AND
CENTRAL HETTINGER COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 230 AM MDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED. 

LAT...LON 4641 10280 4613 10270 4626 10217 4659 10231

$$
JF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
245 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EJECTING SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MONTANA...JUST NORTH OF THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER MOVING EAST.
THIS WAVE WILL REACH BILLINGS BY 12Z...THEN TO DICKINSON BY
18Z...AND JUST EAST OF BISMARCK BY 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. LATEST
MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN
MONTANA THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLUGGISHLY MOVE EAST AND
BECOME LOOSELY DEFINED BY THIS AFTERNOON...LENDING ITSELF TO JUST
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A BAGGY SFC TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES
BISMARCK. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK...BUT WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSTMS AS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS EASTERN
CENTRAL...AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN A SLIGHT RISK SCENARIO FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. LATEST 4KM WRF SIMULATED COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
LOOP SHOWS PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...IN LINE WITH SPC SLIGHT
RISK AREA. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN...WILL
MENTION SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZFP VIA GRIDS. WILL DIMINISH PRECIP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY END IT IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA BY AROUND 06Z. MODELS HAVE THE BAGGY
TROUGH LOOMING OVER THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES AND WEAK
SURFACE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME ITS HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE POPS WOULD MAX OUT...THUS
WILL BLANKET MOST OF THE CWA WITH ISOLATED UNTIL SOMETHING BECOMES
MORE DEFINITIVE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z GFS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS RUN AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF.
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY SO LEFT SOME LOW POPS. THEN...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THIS UPPER
TROUGH. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO COOL DOWN THE MAX TEMPS A BIT FOR
SUNDAY AND TO REMOVE THE LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LEFT IN SOME LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THIS COVERED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST SO
NO CHANGES MADE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. OUTSIDE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KS/JF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
500 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-080915-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
500 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2007 /400 AM MDT TUE AUG 7 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY ALONG THE
MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL INITIATE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.

STRONG WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DEVELOP OVER FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 17/18/31/32/33/40/41/43/44 THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO EASTERN MONTANA BY THIS EVENING
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 90S. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM 1 PM CDT/NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY.

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
918 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     TSTM WND GST     GARRISON                47.65N 101.42W
08/07/2007  M66.00 MPH       MCLEAN             ND   ASOS

            GARRISION AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM...ASOS...
            RECORDED A 66 MPH WIND GUST AT 908 PM CDT.

&&

CJS/TWH