Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Bismarck, ND

August 7, 2007Dunn County, Mercer County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 7, 2007, 4:53 PM MDT for Dunn County, Mercer County, North Dakota. It was in force for 40 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 7, 2007, 4:53 PM MDT (22:53 UTC)
Expired: Aug 7, 2007, 5:33 PM MDT
In force: 40 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Dunn County, ND, Mercer County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 7, 5:00 PM MDT	TSTM WND GST 72	1 W Halliday, ND	HOME WEATHER STATION MEASURED 72 MPH WIND GUSTS. PEA SIZE HAIL ACCOMPANIED THE STORM AND COVERED THE GROUND.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 7 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 7, 2:51 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1509 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -25 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KBIS 072254
SVRBIS
NDC025-057-080000-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0253.070807T2253Z-070808T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
453 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN MERCER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
  EAST CENTRAL DUNN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 600 PM MDT

* AT 452 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  HALLIDAY...OR ABOUT 44 MILES NORTHEAST OF DICKINSON...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DODGE AROUND 500 PM MDT...
  DAKOTA WATERS RECREATION AREA AROUND 535 PM MDT...
  BEULAH BAY RECREATION AREA AROUND 540 PM MDT...
  HAZEN BAY RECREATION AREA AND NEAR HAZEN AROUND 550 PM MDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.
PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4752 10244 4728 10243 4727 10160 4752 10160
      4750 10187 4756 10213

$$

VJ

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 072329
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
629 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2007

NDC025-072339-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-070808T0000Z/
DUNN ND-
529 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DUNN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4756 10215 4731 10213 4727 10160 4752 10160
      4750 10187 4756 10213

$$

NDC057-080000-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-070808T0000Z/
MERCER ND-
529 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MDT
FOR NORTHERN MERCER COUNTY...

AT 526 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DAKOTA WATERS RECREATION AREA...OR
ABOUT 47 MILES NORTHEAST OF DICKINSON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAZEN AROUND 600 PM MDT...

LAT...LON 4756 10215 4731 10213 4727 10160 4752 10160
      4750 10187 4756 10213

$$

NH

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 072333
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2007

NDC057-072342-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-070808T0000Z/
MERCER ND-
532 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MERCER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED. HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND 
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 30 TO 
40 MINUTES OVER NORTHERN MERCER COUNTY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IF 
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. 

LAT...LON 4756 10215 4731 10213 4727 10160 4752 10160
      4750 10187 4756 10213

$$

NH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 7, 2:23 PM MDT, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 7, 2:23 PM MDT, 2 hours 30 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
323 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING ALONG DRY LINE IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH SOME STORMS FORMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MONTANA AS WELL AS CU FIELD IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SOMEWHAT INVERTED V LOOKING SO WIND MAY BE AN
ISSUE AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.

SURFACE TROUGH FROM KGGW TO KMLS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO THE EAST
REACHING NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TROUGH STALLS OVER
CENTRAL DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
ENDING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONTINUING EAST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALLOWS A CHANCE FOR NO WEATHER IN GRIDS FOR
DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REACHES
WESTERN BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH LEE CYCLOGENSIS FRIDAY
MOVING AS DEEPER LOW ONTO NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT FOR MORE CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 17/31/32/33/40/41/43/44 ALL
HAVE REACHED NEARLY TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS TIME AND RED FLAG WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT WILL BE
CONTINUED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

HW/TSW

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 7, 4:00 AM MDT, 12 hours 53 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
500 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-080915-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
500 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2007 /400 AM MDT TUE AUG 7 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY ALONG THE
MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL INITIATE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.

STRONG WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DEVELOP OVER FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 17/18/31/32/33/40/41/43/44 THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO EASTERN MONTANA BY THIS EVENING
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER 90S. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM 1 PM CDT/NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT/6 PM MDT
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT...AND
WEDNESDAY.

KS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 7, 4:16 AM MDT	Red Flag Warning	BIS	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Dunn, Golden Valley, Hettinger and 3 more	14 hr
Aug 7, 3:49 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bowman	56 min
Aug 7, 3:56 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Mountrail	64 min
Aug 7, 4:40 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Adams, Hettinger, Slope	48 min
Aug 7, 4:56 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bowman	62 min
Aug 7, 5:50 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn	55 min
Aug 7, 5:59 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings	30 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.