Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT TRAVERSES EAST
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST BY
MORNING.EASTERN SECTION OF THE CWA HAVE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BUT
STRONGER CAP. HOWEVER FRONT MAY PROVIDE NEEDED LIFT TO OVERCOME CAP.
GENERALLY...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST TONIGHT.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. HENCE
HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER CENTRAL AND EAST SATURDAY
DAYTIME AND THE ENTIRE FA SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ALSO SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THIS MODELS BECOME MUDDLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO
BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME EVOLVING A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN CLOSING OFF THIS WAVE EARLY
ON...WHICH PRODUCES RIDGING OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY AND ACTIVE
WEATHER LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OR SPLITTING THE ENERGY SOUTH
AND NORTH...WHICH PRODUCES A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST EUROPEAN RUN AT 12Z THIS MORNING IS
SUPPORTING THE LATER SCENARIO. WELL HOLD OFF ON CHANGES FOR NOW AND
SEE WHERE THE TRENDS GO OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ISOLD-SCT TSRA SPREADING WEST AND
CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES AND SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH WEST TO EAST. NAM MODEL IS DEPICTING AN AREA
OF MVFR CIGS SPREADING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AROUND 6Z AND PUSHING
SOUTH TOWARDS BIS AND JMS. THE GFS IS MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL RH IN CANADA. MENTIONED SCT020 IN TAF
SITES CENTRAL AND EAST...WHICH MAY NEED MVFR CIGS MENTIONED EITHER
FOR THE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

WAA/NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
756 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-011300-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
756 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007 /656 AM MDT TUE JUL 31 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HOT DAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL PUSH THE
HEAT INDEX TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT HUMIDITES WILL FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGHS
ARE REACHED...KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP...THEY MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME CONCERN DUE TO SHIFTING WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY LIGHTNING. FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TWH