Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 2, 2007Divide County, Williams County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2007, 5:30 PM CDT for Divide County, Williams County, North Dakota. It was in force for 60 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2007, 5:30 PM CDT (22:30 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2007, 6:30 PM CDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Divide County, ND, Williams County, ND

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 2, 3:57 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 234 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1050 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -108 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1631 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 222 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 3:39 PM CDT, 1 hour 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 3:39 PM CDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
339 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
CONCERNS CENTER ON POSSIBLE STRONG CONVECTION LOCATION AND EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS EAST OF FRONT MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH BROAD FEATURES BUT QUITE DIFFERENT WITH LOCATION OF SHORT WAVES
TOPPING RIDGE. CONSENSUS IS GFS IS MODEL OF CHOICE AGAIN TODAY.

MAIN SURFACE FEATURES IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN MONTANA WITH SOME
CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MONTANA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER AND
AND CUMULUS FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER BIGHORNS AND AND BLACK
HILLS. AIRMASS UNSTABLE BUT WEAKLY CAPPED ON 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM KGGW
AND KABR. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FOLLOW DEEPENING LOW AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY TO FOCUS OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND
ON TUESDAY.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT FOR DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
LATE TUESDAY AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL USHER IN A WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. IF CURRENT 850H TEMPS FORECAST BY
MODELS HOLD TRUE...MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN INTO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION AND IN
RESPONSE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES PUSHES SLOWLY THROUGH THE CWA...BRINGING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LEFT CLEAR SATURDAY
DAYTIME AS A STRONG CAP SEEMS LIKELY. STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT UNTIL MODEL UNCERTAINTIES BECOME LESS OF A
FACTOR. COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY. LEFT MONDAY
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTED SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WEST AND NORTH OVER EASTERN MT AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WEST AND CENTRAL ND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
TSRA AND SHRA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HW/NH

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 4:13 AM CDT, 13 hours 17 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
413 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-030915-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
413 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007 /313 AM MDT MON JUL 2 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...AGAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE
REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 2, 2:40 PM CDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
240 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     HAIL             7 S ALMONT              46.63N 101.50W
07/01/2007  M1.75 INCH       MORTON             ND   PUBLIC

&&
LATE REPORT.

NHEINERT

Local storm report, Jul 2, 4:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
420 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 SSW MENOKEN           46.71N 100.58W
07/01/2007  E75 MPH          BURLEIGH           ND   PUBLIC

            DAMAGE TO OUTBUILDINGS ON A FARM. MAINLY ROOF
            DAMAGE...AND ONE METAL BUILDING COLLAPSED. LATE REPORT.

&&

JP MARTIN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 1, 7:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Morton, Sioux	49 min
Jul 1, 8:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons	55 min
Jul 1, 9:02 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Grant	43 min
Jul 1, 9:11 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Morton	34 min
Jul 1, 9:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh	43 min
Jul 1, 9:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Morton	61 min
Jul 1, 9:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton	40 min
Jul 1, 10:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Oliver	41 min
Jul 1, 10:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Kidder, Logan	37 min
Jul 2, 6:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Divide, Williams	19 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.