Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
340 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. STATIONARY FRONT
FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AT 20Z WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
PERIOD 00Z THROUGH 06Z ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
ON TUESDAY THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LEAVING
THE REGION WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN. HAVE ENDED THE
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT DRY AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WEST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM TODAY. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY IN A DIRTY RIDGE AND THEN TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW BY SATURDAY...THEN A BROAD FLAT RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE FEATURES. WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING OVER RIDGE THAT COULD SPARK A THUNDERSTORM SO
WILL BASICALLY STICK WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING A CHANCE
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT THIS IS THE ONE PERIOD WHERE THE GFS
INDICATES A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR WEST. WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER PEEK.

NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUDINESS HOLDING ON OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
STATIONARY FRONT. RUC INDICATES THIS MOISTURE HOLD ON OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THINGS OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TIMING/LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FRONT...BUT STILL CAPPED. WILL HOLD OFF BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AROUND 03Z. THINGS CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND CDFNT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WAA/TH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
521 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-261030-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
521 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2007 /421 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE REGENERATING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INITIATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
BEING PUSHED EAST LATE TONIGHT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WILL
MOVE IN ON TUESDAY.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE JAMES RIVER NEAR
LUDDEN DAM. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN
GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.