Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 312035
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
335 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2007

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA FOR STRONG WINDS AND
LOW HUMIDITIES...

.TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THERE HAD DROPPED TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WERE GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

THE LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

IN ADDITION...THE LATEST FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE WESTERN THIRD
OF NORTH DAKOTA MAY SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY NOON AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE VERY DIFFERENT
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT DRY AIR WILL BE USHERED IN
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 20 TO 25 PERCENT.

STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-010200-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070901T0200Z/
DIVIDE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
335 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2007 /235 PM MDT FRI AUG 31 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING. 

TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THERE HAD DROPPED TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WERE GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

JV

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 010146
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
846 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2007

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-010300-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070901T0200Z/
DIVIDE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
846 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2007 /746 PM MDT FRI AUG 31 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING. 

HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED FOR THE EVENING. SO
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$
JF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
259 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP PLACES THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
ND/MT BORDER THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO WASH
OUT AS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES AND A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW KICKS IN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...ESSENTIALLY REMOVING ANY
SURFACE CONVERGENCE. ALREADY EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING ON THE
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER NOR WESTERN UTAH PRODUCING CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE GFS HANDLES THIS WAVE WELL LIFTING
IT NORTHEAST TO THE ND/SD/MT BORDER BY AROUND 06Z SAT. THIS WAVE
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO WEAKEN THE CAP AND PRODUCE ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED TSTMS TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. AT
THE VERY LEAST...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CLOUD DEBRIS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY BASED UPON WHAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NOW. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS WARM OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY.
BUFFER SOUNDINGS SHOW CIN DECREASING TOWARD 00Z SUN...AND THUS
THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME
FRAME. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY AND COLLABORATED WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. COOLER ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BY ROUGHLY
10 DEGREES. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH SUNDAY BEING DRY...THEN ANOTHER THREAT FOR PRECIP
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. MENTIONED SLATED TSTMS MOST AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT...IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXTENDED PERIODS BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN PLAINS BY END OF EXTENDED
PERIODS. TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY WITH EVIDENCE OF LEE TROUGHING
ALREADY STARTING ATTM. WARM SECTOR CAPPING WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EARLY IN EXTENDED.  GFS NOW PUSHES TROUGH TO WESTERN BORDER
BY TUESDAY MIDNIGHT AND TO EASTERN COUNTIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERS ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH NEW DAY EIGHT
AND SINCE IN ALL LIKELYHOOD THE MOVEMENT IS FORECAST TO FAST WILL
ADD POPS AGAIN TO DAY EIGHT AND RETURN THEM TO DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME LOW CLOUD AND FOG FORMING ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BORDER OVER
RUNNING SAGGING SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. KJMS ALREADY 8SM WITH 11U-3.9U SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
STRATUS MOVING WEST AND SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST QUARTER OF STATE. WILL
ADD SOME LOWER CLOUD AND BR TO KJMS TAF. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ZONES MENTIONED BELOW. BUFFER SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXNG/DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 850MB THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH WILL MIX DOWN WINDS BETWEEN 25-30KT. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
ALSO MIX DOWN AND CREATE MINIMUM RHS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT IN
MOST AREAS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-
041-043-044.

&&

KS/HW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
357 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2007

NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-034>036-042-045-046-312100-
BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-GRANT-
SIOUX-EMMONS-
357 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2007 /257 PM MDT THU AUG 30 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
MONDAY...THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-312100-
DIVIDE-WILLIAMS-MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-
HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
357 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2007 /257 PM MDT THU AUG 30 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF AROUND 20 PERCENT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
MONDAY...THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ025-037-047-048-050-051-312100-
FOSTER-STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
357 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT WITH ALL
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
MONDAY...THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JV