Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 281955
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
255 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...

.WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY
WINDS TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE FAVORABLE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY
BY THIS EVENING. 

NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-290000-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-071029T0000Z/
MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-
ADAMS-
255 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007 /155 PM MDT SUN OCT 28 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING. 

WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY
WINDS TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE FAVORABLE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY
BY THIS EVENING. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
JF

000 
WWUS83 KBIS 290011
RFWBIS

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
711 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007

NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-290115-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-071029T0000Z/
MCKENZIE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-
ADAMS-
711 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007 /611 PM MDT SUN OCT 28 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WARNING AREA AND HUMIDITIES HAVE
BEGUN TO RISE WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING. THEREFORE THE
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL/WEST TO EAST FLOW UPSTREAM OF NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE STATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN MOST LOCALES TODAY REACHING THE
LOWER 60S...AND EVEN WARMER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN
ALBERTA WITH THE 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ALREADY INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN IN CANADA AND THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS ROUTE...MOVING EAST TODAY AND JUST
GRAZING NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE
WITH THIS FRONT OTHER THAN SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS TODAY WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES MUCH LOWER TODAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 18% TO 23%. THE HUMIDITIES
COMBINED WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAS PROMPTED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE DETAILS BELOW. THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IS DUE IN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A VIGOROUS
BUT PROGRESSIVE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PLOW THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN
POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM IS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC. APPEARS THE
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SFC WINDS PROJECTED AT 20KT TUESDAY NIGHT.
850MB WINDS NW AT 35KT-40KT. EXPECT ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ANY PRECIP FALLING PAST MIDNIGHT WOULD BE SNOW SHOWERS. WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING...WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS AND
COLD TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD AND FEW
CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALL MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COLD
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50 WEST. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BEGINS IN EARNEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. DID RAISE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ON
THURSDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NEARLY FULL
SUN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA BY
12Z FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH BEST MOISTURE REMAINING WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW FOR THE FAR WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST LIKELY THIS WOULD OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT IF MODELS CONTINUE ON CURRENT TREND. REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THEN BRIEF RIDGING EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FROM A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO A WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. IT MAY BE
A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED AROUND 20 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDICES ARE EXTREMELY
HIGH AND PERCENT GREEN AT ZERO. ALL ELEMENTS CONSIDERED HERE PUTS
CONDITIONS IN THE CRITICAL RANGE FOR MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA. THUS
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SEE
INFORMATION BELOW FOR SPECIFIC ZONES AND ALSO BISRFWBIS FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-
044.

&&

KS/TWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
418 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2007

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-280930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
418 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2007 /318 AM MDT SAT OCT 27 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KS