Heavy Snow Warning 2, NWS Bismarck, ND

Bottineau County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
255 PM CST TUE FEB 27 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST CONCERNS/HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THE
WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
MODELS ALL SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDEL ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. SO I HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN MT AND WY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER MY SOUTHWEST CWA IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM...WHICH HAS CAUSED WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MY FAR SW CWA LATE THIS EVENING
AND SLOWLY SPREADING EAST NORTH EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA VIA 30 TO 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET OUT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS REVELS DECENT LIFTING AND LOW CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ALONG THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES. IN
ADDITION...CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS MY CWA REVEAL GOOD MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL AS STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO MESOSCALE BANDS SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. I AM EXPECTING
THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY SNOW TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND LAST UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO
POSSIBLE 12 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ND.

LATER ON WEDNESDAY THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER. AS IT DOES
SO...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS. A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AND TAKE A TRACK SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKS WINTER
STORM.

LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN...ON
FRIDAY...ONCE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN MO
AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN WI RAP AROUND MOISTURE WITHIN A DEFORMATION
ZONE SHOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF A COUPLE OF INCHES TO MY EASTERN
COUNTIES.

CONSIDERING THE HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED I HAVE ISSUED A HEAVY
SNOW WARNING FOR AREAS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST...WHERE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...I
HAVE ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED.
DIFFICULTLY IN HANDLING GULF OF ALASKA LOW HAS CREATED TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH SUNDAYS CLIPPER SYSTEM. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE
FASTEST...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND ALLOWS PROLONGED WAA TO
CREATE A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH EACH MODEL RUN THE
TIMING OF THE CLIPPER BY THE TWO MODELS HAS COME CLOSER TOGETHER.
SO...HAVE PRETTY MUCH BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT...WITH
A TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY BY NEXT TUESDAY. MEAN GFS ENSEMBLE SEEMS
TO BE A THE OUTLIER AND SHIED AWAY FROM IT AT THIS POINT.

HAVE NOT INCLUDED PRECIP CHANCES WITH CLIPPER ON SUNDAY AS MOST OF
THE SUPPORT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT COULD VERY WELL
BE ADDED IN TIME. COLD AIR WILL GRAZE THE REGION MONDAY AND SFC
HIGHS IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING.
WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY...WE WILL SEE GRADUAL
WARMING WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO STILL FAVOR NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED CLIPPERS
SO SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARD CLIMO FOR TEMPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-034>037-
046>048-050-051.

SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
/5 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025.

&&

SHORT TERM...KJB/HW
LONG TERM...JC

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