Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Bismarck, ND

000
WGUS73 KBIS 071123
FFSBIS

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

NDC001-015-037-041-059-065-085-071345-
GRANT ND-HETTINGER ND-ADAMS ND-BURLEIGH ND-OLIVER ND-MORTON ND-
SIOUX ND-
522 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM MDT(845 AM
CDT) FOR SIOUX...MORTON...SOUTHERN OLIVER...WESTERN BURLEIGH...
ADAMS...HETTINGER AND GRANT COUNTIES...

AT 511 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MANDAN AND
BISMARCK

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED 
AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS
AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4597 10292 4596 10078 4681 10058 4717 10052
      4716 10164 4661 10197 4660 10289

$$

RSL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
315 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS IT HAS DONE BEST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT AT 06Z THIS MORNING.  GFS WAS TOO FAR
WEST BY ABOUT 100 MILES.  CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ABOUT 70 MILES WIDE ARCING FROM DEVILS LAKE TO
HETTINGER AT 3 AM CDT.  APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WILL BE APPROXIMATELY ALONG THAT PATH AS THE PRECIP
BAND SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST.
WILL DROP THE FLOOD WATCH FROM ALL BUT MERCER...MCLEAN...SHERIDAN...
WELLS...PIERCE...AND ROLETTE COUNTIES.  FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS COVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA TODAY.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SO ENDING THE WATCH AT 18Z STILL LOOKS GOOD. THE WINDS ARE
ALREADY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE LOW LEVEL
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH TODAY.  EVEN WITH THE MORNING INVERSION
STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY...AND WITH AN ADIABATIC SOUNDING THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD LINK TO THOSE ALOFT.  CONSEQUENTLY...SHOULD
SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS...PUT THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT AND ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUDS AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...BUT SHOULD WARM TO AROUND NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THANKS TO THE APPROACH ON ANOTHER IN AN
ENDLESS SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGHS...WILL ONCE AGAIN
BRING SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES DURING THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.
MONDAY EVENING LOOKS PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH PROGGED GFS40 MUCAPES
NEAR 8000 J/KG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL INSURE
RAIN...THUNDER...AND IFR CEILINGS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
TO 35 KT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-
012-013-019-021>023.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

TSW/RL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
447 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

NDZ001>004-009>011-017-018-020-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-081000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-
DUNN-OLIVER-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
447 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007 /347 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THERE
WILL BE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ005-012-013-019-021>023-081000-
ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-MERCER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
447 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007 /347 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY
AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.