Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
235 AM EST SUN DEC 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH SNOW
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON CREATING
A WARM LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION
TO A MIXED BAG. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND
RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...BRINGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TEMP AND PCPN ADJUSTMENTS ON THIS UPDATE
ACCORDING TO THE CRNTS. 00Z NAM SEEM TO INITIALIZE TOO WARM AND
HAS CARRIED THAT WARMTH INTO THE FCST TNGT AND SUN OVER THE FCST
AREA. SO...STILL VERY MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS ON THE
UPCOMING STORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A WEAKENING STATE WILL CROSS FA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FROM I81
WEST WHERE ADV HAVE BEEN ISSUED. FURTHER EAST PRECIP THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. WARM MID LAYER BEGINS WORKING ACROSS FA BY LATE MORNING
WITH PRECIP MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET FROM I81 WEST. AFTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT SWINGS THROUGH, OMEGA FIELDS WEAKEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT, SURFACE LOW MOVES TO VCNTY OF ERN LAKE ONTARIO BY
12Z MON. AS SHORT WAVE IN OHIO VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST LIFT WILL
ENHANCE. P-TYPE FROM I81 WEST WILL BE A MIX OF EVERYTHING BUT SNOW
UNTIL LATE WHEN COASTAL TAKES OVER AND COLUMN COOLS. IN THE
CURRENT WATCH AREA PRECIP MAY PRIMARILY BE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...COASTAL BECOMES DOMINATE FEATURE WITH INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. BY LATE AFTERNOON LES MAY
BEGIN ACROSS FAR NRN FA.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LES ACCUM IN THE USUAL AREAS
FOR W/NE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PTRN WILL BE DOMINATED BY PERIODIC CLIPPERS. MULTIBAND LES ON
TUES...STILL COLD WITH POTNL FOR DECENT LCL ACCUMS. CLIPPER XPCTD
TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WED WITH POTNL FOR SOME LGT
SNOW...THEN NW FLOW WITH MORE LES PSBL WED NGT. THU AND THU NGT
LOOK GNRLY FAIR, THEN NXT S/WV APRCHS FRI NGT WITH POTNL FOR SOME
LGT SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT LES. BOTTOM LINE IS SEASONABLY COLD WX
WITH A FEW CLIIPERS BRINGING PDS OF LGT SNOW, AND POTNL FOR
INTERMITTENT LES E AND SE OF LAKE ONTARIO FOLLOWING EACH SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MRNG WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
BECMG WDSPRD BY DAYBREAK AS -SN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM W TO E.
THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. TRANSITION
TO ICE PELLETS AND FZRA WILL BEGIN ACRS WRN SITES THIS AFTN...WITH
POTNL FOR FZRA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVNG ALL LOCATIONS. PCPN MAY CHG
TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 06Z AT ELM AND AVP...PSBLY SYR. WINDS GNRLY E
TO SE, WITH SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 KT RNG. INCRSNG SRLY FLOW
ABV THE SFC BASED STABLE LATER TDA AND TNGT SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR LLWS POTNL, BUT LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...MIXED PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH SOME
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW STILL POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ040-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038-039-
     043-044-047.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ009-036-037-045-046-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ015>018-
     022>025-044-055-056.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

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