Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
410 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE TWIN TIERS.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 386 CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS, SUSQUEHANNA REGION AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
LOCAL RADARS SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE REGION WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE. SFC BASED CAPE 1500-200O J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT
BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY. WEAK SHORT WAVE LOBE
ROTATING AROUND H5 LOW ALSO ENHANCING ACTIVITY ATTM. AS SUNSET
APPROACHES ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. BY LATE EVENING ALL ACTIVITY WILL END AS SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY/MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H5 LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS IN THE GENERAL VCNTY
THROUGH FRIDAY. INVERTED TROF FROM THE TN VALLEY TO CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ON WED, WENT DRY FOR NRN ZONES, SLIGHT CHC ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER, SUSQUE REGION AND WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH
CHC POPS NE PA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH T85 BTW 8/10C THURSDAY AND
10/11C ON FRIDAY. SKIES PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY CLEAR WITH
DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UA LOPRES IS FCSTD TO WOBBLE NWRD AND BE ABSORBED BY THE WLYS.
THIS ALLOWS A BROADER RDG TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. TROF DROPPING
INTO NEW ENG IN THE NW FLOW MAY TRIGGER A FEW TRWS SAT NGT...
OTRW...CONDS SHD BE MAINLY DRY. SHRT WV AND COLD FNT LOOKS TO MVE
IN AND BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN...JUST AFTER THIS
XTNDD PD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SCT TRWS HAVE DVLPD OVER THE ERN AREEAS THIS AFTN AND WILL MAINLY
AFFECT AVP...ALTHOUGH ISTLD TRWS PSBL AS FAR WEST AS BGM AND RME.
FOR THE MOST PART...MOST SHD BE BRIEF WITH LWRD CIGS AND VSBYS.
MUCH OF THE ACTVITY IS ANCHORED BY TERRAIN...AND SHD RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. OTRW...XPCTG VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL
THRU THIS PD. XCPTN COULD BE AT ELM WHERE SOME BRIEF MRNG FOG LWRS
CIGS AND VSBY INTO THE MVFR RNAGE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHRA AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT AVP. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE
MORNING FOG AT ELM EACH DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
121 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-055-131730-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-TIOGA-
121 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NYZ045-046-056-057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-131730-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
121 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
255 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

PAZ044-047-122000-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-
255 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN LACKAWANNA AND EASTERN LUZERNE
COUNTIES...

* AT 250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG
GUSTY   WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GLENDALE...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  YATESVILLE AND PITTSTON AT 300 PM EDT...
  WESTMINISTER AND LAFLIN AT 305 PM EDT...
  HUDSON AND MINERS MILLS AT 310 PM EDT...
  BEAR CREEK AND LAUREL RUN AT 320 PM EDT...
  PRESTON AT 325 PM EDT...
  TUNNEL AND PENN LAKE PARK AT 330 PM EDT...
  REILY AND WHITE HAVEN AT 340 PM EDT...
  SPRINGTOWN AND DORRANCE AT 350 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

MJ

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